The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Regan]

Brick is watching WRAL. He’ll be here soon. 
 

 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Does anyone have the new Graf weather radar model? 

[ncforecaster89]

My latest thoughts:  

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2016862389610668160

[Orange county]

3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

My latest thoughts:  

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2016862389610668160

sensible

[olafminesaw]

models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough

[Regan]

Allan Huffman

[olafminesaw]

One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.

[Derived42]

3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Allan Huffman

I'm in the Charlotte area and typically listen to Brad P. but I like to sample around for other forecasts. It's really telling how all the forecasts differ. Brad P. hasn't released his call yet, but saying the 2-4 is likely where Allan here is saying 5-10. I'm no met and I really only lurk most of the time, but even I can see that the next 12-24 hours will be make or break for those higher end totals. Hoping for at least 4 here in CLT cause we haven't seen that in a LONG time.

[ncforecaster89]

My forecasting approach was developed from working at the NWS, and as such, I tend to engage in a more cautious and incremental process.  That said, I will go ahead and mention that the probabilities are increasing for the potential of blizzard conditions along portions of the NC and SE Virginia coastal areas.  

[Divine]

1 minute ago, Derived42 said:

I'm in the Charlotte area and typically listen to Brad P. but I like to sample around for other forecasts. It's really telling how all the forecasts differ. Brad P. hasn't released his call yet, but saying the 2-4 is likely where Allan here is saying 5-10. I'm no met and I really only lurk most of the time, but even I can see that the next 12-24 hours will be make or break for those higher end totals. Hoping for at least 4 here in CLT cause we haven't seen that in a LONG time.

I feel pretty good when normally conserative GSP has maps like this out and this is only through 7am Sunday

[Buddy1987]

HRRR way out in fantasy land is pretty dry. Hope that isn't a trend today in the models.

[HKY_WX]

 This why you don't pay attention to the HRRR or RAP at this range. It just corrected its 5h about 300 miles west. Which makes sense to align with the EURO/GFS. But still....

 

 

[Rsheely88]

 This why you don't pay attention to the HRR or RAP at this range
 
 

More of a neg tilt earlier?


.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'll gladly take a central NC screw zone of 2-3 inches.  Still more snow than 95% of the systems we get.  

 

WRAL first call going with 3-6 inches for central NC.

Unless we zero out entirely 

[HKY_WX]

Just now, Rsheely88 said:

More of a neg tilt earlier?


.

It's really just a correction to reality as we get closer to the system. It matches up better now with the med range models.

[PackGrad05]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

HRRR way out in fantasy land is pretty dry. Hope that isn't a trend today in the models.

Not sure I'd agree.  It already has an inch (or more) over most of the area by 7AM Saturday...

[BornAgain13]

SREF looks good!

[Buddy1987]

Slight changes early on with NAM wanting to dig some (we'll see where it goes).

[Regan]

In a discussion on X Allan said he didn’t see Raleigh getting under 2/3 but could easy be 8/10. We may have to be happy with these large range ideas and be prepared for anything. Can’t be too exact with this or greedy. 

[ncforecaster89]

As I mentioned in my X post, the 12z runs will be the first to contain full data ingestion from direct sampling of the northern-stream energy.  With that, I fully expect a tightening consensus amongst the guidance through the 00z cycle this afternoon and evening.  

[NCSU_Pi]

15 minutes ago, Derived42 said:

I'm in the Charlotte area and typically listen to Brad P. but I like to sample around for other forecasts. It's really telling how all the forecasts differ. Brad P. hasn't released his call yet, but saying the 2-4 is likely where Allan here is saying 5-10. I'm no met and I really only lurk most of the time, but even I can see that the next 12-24 hours will be make or break for those higher end totals. Hoping for at least 4 here in CLT cause we haven't seen that in a LONG time.

I think the different audiences has to explain a lot of this, right? Brad P. has different considerations to make as a TV met. Huffman is probably just more free to speculate. Though I do still value how open Brad P. is in communicating his thoughts for someone in his position. I think that's the right way to do it (kinda like the ACC's new football review transparency).

[ncforecaster89]

22 minutes ago, Regan said:

Allan Huffman

Very well-done.  One minor adjustment I’d make would be to move “A” to encompass a *little* more of SE VA…as 3-7” seems a little too conservative for Norfolk, IMO.  

[Regan]

Still seeing the graphics on rah NWS saying 6-13 range. Expect 8. Low end 3. High end17/19 for Raleigh 

[Tony Sisk]

29 minutes ago, Regan said:

Allan Huffman

BOLD, and very well could happen

[wake4est]

[Orange county]

5 minutes ago, Regan said:

Still seeing the graphics on rah NWS saying 6-13 range. Expect 8. Low end 3. High end17/19 for Raleigh 

I guess no one has a good grip on the Coastal low-where it develops, how much it develops

We will get a couple inches maybe from the ULL-and that is the extent of the almost guarntee for central NC

The low could give us 2-3 more inches-or 12-or about 0

[Snowncanes]

NAM looking better through 36 at H5. Digging more and a tad west

[wake4est]

[Tony Sisk]

23 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

My forecasting approach was developed from working at the NWS, and as such, I tend to engage in a more cautious and incremental process.  That said, I will go ahead and mention that the probabilities are increasing for the potential of blizzard conditions along portions of the NC and SE Virginia coastal areas.  

Much Respect!  For me, this is the type forecasting I prefer. Much like GP NWS, they always are cautious and are good about incremental updates.  Personally, that is the way to forecast!

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

NAM looking better through 36 at H5. Digging more and a tad west

Agreed. Trying to elongate the western portion of the energy and bend it back toward Western IA. Curious to see how this translates downstream. Mountains already feeling the result of this with a ribbon of snow developing out in front.