BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 That NAM run was wonky lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Now that I’ve seen the surface depiction, it seems like it might be having some feedback issues like the Canadian last night. You can see it trying to pop the low well east of the isobars it should be located at. Thus the paltry snow shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 NWS blend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I might be wrong but isn't the National Blend like a run or 2 behind? Wondering if its picking up on 18z or 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, BornAgain13 said: I might be wrong but isn't the National Blend like a run or 2 behind? Wondering if its picking up on 18z or 0z last night. I believe it ingested 6z data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I hope nothing happens with any model data being delayed today or tomorrow. What would one do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, eyewall said: There are a few failure modes for this setup which would result in less precipitation over central NC. The first is the placement and the latitude the mid/upper level low closes; minor adjustments will have potentially significant ramifications on if/when/where the deformation band sets up. The second is that some degree of cyclogenesis will occur along the primary baroclinic zone over the Bahamas and may draw stronger ascent, moisture, and related liquid equivalent and snow amounts away from the instant occlusion-type, nearer-shore coastal low. 37 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I wish one of the mets would explain that Low in the bahamas. GFS has that feature as well. Just shown up in the last day. We are not seeing the earlier phasing or negative tilt we saw at 18z. Probably all noise at this point any way... Please see above What the discussion is saying is that the larger temperature gradient is over the Bahamas and therefore more baroclinicity is in this zone. Normally it's just off the coast, however, this time it's over the Bahamas. This means the greatest potential forcing and development is towards that area and therefore may be where the physics take this storm and development. Low pressures develop along (for mid latitude storms) temperature gradients. These gradients are large changes in temperature over a short distance. This causes a spin to develop, especially as warm air is forced to rise and cool air is shunted to the ground. That change in temperature causes a vertical wind shear and allows the potential energy between the temperatures to be converted to kinetic energy, allowing a low pressure to form and allowing the low pressure system to vent itself as the shear creates a bend back in heights (as an LP develops it needs venting so the pressure can be evacuated - this shear aids in that through concentrating each LP in each layer of the atmosphere at a slightly different horizontal placement. Essentially as you go through h85/7/5, the LP in each layer is west of the LP below it. This allows venting of the storm). So the models are picking up that the energy potential is greater in the Bahamas and if that's the case, the baroclinicity over the Bahamas may rob the energy from the LP attempting to develop along the coast. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 19 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: To the cliff diving thread. Easy my friend. You’re gonna have a rough couple of days if you let one run of the NAM at this range send you cliff diving 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Does anyone remember the website for cmc-collaboration model. I remember it used to have a cool look to it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I might be wrong but isn't the National Blend like a run or 2 behind? Wondering if its picking up on 18z or 0z last night. Yea one of the Mets who is tied to NWS or CPC highlighted this a couple times in the MA forum. We really can't afford for the GFS to trend the wrong way here.. as is imo we're already on the western edge of the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said: Easy my friend. You’re gonna have a rough couple of days if you let one run of the NAM at this range send you cliff diving Fact is we are always one step away from the cliff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RDPS closes off the upper low all the way up in Iowa… way earlier than everything else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, WXNewton said: NWS blend Me gusta mucho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Raleigh NWS forecast. FRAME IT 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Please see above What the discussion is saying is that the larger temperature gradient is over the Bahamas and therefore more baroclinicity is in this zone. Normally it's just off the coast, however, this time it's over the Bahamas. This means the greatest potential forcing and development is towards that area and therefore may be where the physics take this storm and development. Low pressures develop along (for mid latitude storms) temperature gradients. These gradients are large changes in temperature over a short distance. This causes a spin to develop, especially as warm air is forced to rise and cool air is shunted to the ground. That change in temperature causes a vertical wind shear and allows the potential energy between the temperatures to be converted to kinetic energy, allowing a low pressure to form and allowing the low pressure system to vent itself as the shear creates a bend back in heights (as an LP developed or needs venting so the pressure can be evacuated - this shear aids in that through concentrating each LP in each layer of the atmosphere at a slightly different horizontal placement. Essentially as you go through h85/7/5, the LP in each layer is west of the LP below it. This allows venting of the storm). So the models are picking up that the energy potential is greater in the Bahamas and if that's the case, the baroclinicity over the Bahamas may rob the energy from the LP attempting to develop along the coast. I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Snowncanes said: RDPS closes off the upper low all the way up in Iowa… way earlier than everything else Dives down into N Alabama before working its way east. May give our GA peeps a little something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM (still going most areas) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM a big hit especially for the Carolinas. Little to south for @Buddy1987 and myself. But its not done 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I would think RGEM would climb the coast if it continued? Good sign for the 12z CMC.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM (still going most areas) Gives Atlanta over five inches. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Icon still not their but its decent for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Should mean the Canadian looks nice. I just wonder if that upper low is going to close off that far north. A pretty far outlier right now versus everything else. But not impossible I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Raleigh NWS forecast. FRAME IT My hourly forecast in Greensboro is showing 8". The highest I've seen this far out since moving here in 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 RGEM, PLEASE VERIFY!!!!!! PLEASE, us UPSTATE SNOW STARVED PEOPLE ARE BEGGING YOU! I might even sell a kidney 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Please see above What the discussion is saying is that the larger temperature gradient is over the Bahamas and therefore more baroclinicity is in this zone. Normally it's just off the coast, however, this time it's over the Bahamas. This means the greatest potential forcing and development is towards that area and therefore may be where the physics take this storm and development. Low pressures develop along (for mid latitude storms) temperature gradients. These gradients are large changes in temperature over a short distance. This causes a spin to develop, especially as warm air is forced to rise and cool air is shunted to the ground. That change in temperature causes a vertical wind shear and allows the potential energy between the temperatures to be converted to kinetic energy, allowing a low pressure to form and allowing the low pressure system to vent itself as the shear creates a bend back in heights (as an LP developed or needs venting so the pressure can be evacuated - this shear aids in that through concentrating each LP in each layer of the atmosphere at a slightly different horizontal placement. Essentially as you go through h85/7/5, the LP in each layer is west of the LP below it. This allows venting of the storm). So the models are picking up that the energy potential is greater in the Bahamas and if that's the case, the baroclinicity over the Bahamas may rob the energy from the LP attempting to develop along the coast. Thanks! I had not seen that. Good grief...now we have to worry about a Low in the Bahamas. If there is a way to screw the SE, no matter how crazy, it seems to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I would think RGEM would climb the coast if it continued? Good sign for the 12z CMC.? That is one HELL of a bowling ball.. looks to tuck the low super close to the coast by the end of it's run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 So we have the far west RGEM and the far east ICON with pretty much everything else smack in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Snowncanes said: So we have the far west RGEM and the far east ICON with pretty much everything else smack in the middle. Time for the GFS to confuse us even more lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Gives Atlanta over five inches. Wow. Is RGem ever accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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