Terpeast Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 41 minutes ago, snowfan said: Book your tee times, plant those spring bulbs, get the grill ready... Phil says nasofast... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 hours ago, high risk said: Saturday looks brutal, with temps in the mid to upper teens and sustained winds in the 20-30mph with higher gusts. Good 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Phil says nasofast... So we have a 60% chance of an early spring based on that rodents historical success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Phil says nasofast... Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck. I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck. I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40 Youre not going to find many in this sub that prefer rain right now. Its winter and this is a sick bunch. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Wish as it would be nice to get rid of this ice. Some back roads still suck. I'll take the rain at that time frame but my long range is only looking like 40. It can rain 11.5 months out of the year. Give us snow bro. 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago At least we can imagine we keep getting snow since the snow from the last storm is still on the ground. I don't know. I'm grasping at any comfort right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago All 3 Ensembles depict a chance for a winter storm mid month. That has looked like the most favorable window for awhile now. The difference compared to now is enough of a pattern change to inhibit significantly below avg cold to make it into our area, so as it looks currently, marginal cold would have to do it along with a favorable storm track and dynamics. That's all stuff that cant be resolved this far out.13-14th is certainly the next legit chance. Airmass issues as the 50/50 is cut off from the flow and we have that ride bridge effect. Ensembles are in good agreement for that ridge Feb 10-11. However, we can have it work out if energy from the trough out west is able to come out in pieces that way we get at least one or two fronts to knock down the ridge. We don’t want it coming East as one big shortwave.6z AiGFS showed an example of this. It sent a wave across in the 10-11th range which knocked down the ridge. It ended up being just too warm for us, but close enough.We’ll see how it evolves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diesel BrokeHer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 hours ago, snowfan said: Where is RIC?? It's freezing here too. Jumped right over us. I feel left out. (though maybe we hit 33/34 yesterday? Everything is still covered in hard, solid blocks of ice, so it's certainly not been far over the mark) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The - AO on the rise. Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, frd said: The - AO on the rise. Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far. Strat warming is on the atlantic side, so that should knock the AO back down. Can already see hints of it doing that in the dashed mean line starting to turn downwards right at the end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 27 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Both GEFS and EPS have a follow up wave on the 15th after a cutter, with a cold enough airmass for us. I'll be watching that one. I noticed how the warmth on the Euro IA, GFS AI, GFS, EPS, EPSAI through Feb 17 18z. It will be interesting on how far the cold moves south. At the end of the 00z EPS run, it shows most of PA down to the 20s, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago 51 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Strat warming is on the atlantic side, so that should knock the AO back down. Can already see hints of it doing that in the dashed mean line starting to turn downwards right at the end. There are some similarities to 2018 only in this case the TPV was weaker to begin with and the warming is happening about a week earlier. Obviously we will need luck to go our way...but if we got a similar pattern to March 2018 and got it to set in 7-10 days earlier AND with a colder N American profile to start... I would roll the dice with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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