January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[Weather Junkie]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

If giving yourself hope that you’re going to see accumulating snow earlier makes you feel better, go right ahead. In MY opinion, the flip time is going to be what really impacts the results


.

Isn’t hope 90% of our hobby?

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Mrs. PacMan, as expected. Waiting until about midnight for this to fill in

Always happens with us.  Always

[balltermen]

I thought this was a pretty cool and helpful map. 

[Jebman]

HUGE SURPRISE in Central Texas at 10pm EST.

23 degrees is too cold for freezing rain.

We are getting ALL sleet! ALL SLEET, NO ZR whatsoever!

[paulythegun]

Always happens with us.  Always

Yep! Not a big deal. Will fill in

[bncho]

Just now, Jebman said:

HUGE SURPRISE in Central Texas at 10pm EST.

23 degrees is too cold for freezing rain.

We are getting ALL sleet! ALL SLEET, NO ZR whatsoever!

warm nose underperformance?

[stormtracker]

Just now, paulythegun said:

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Always happens with us.  Always

Yep! Not a big deal. Will fill in

Yup, but that shit is so irritating.  Just like with severe...line has the good shit north and south of us

[Solution Man]

 

Reflectivity 

 

 

[Jebman]

Just now, bncho said:

warm nose underperformance?

You betcha! And it will translate to your area, because you guys are much colder and farther north!

No freezing rain for any of you!

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Reflectivity 

 

 

Gaithersburg snow hole? booooo

[nw baltimore wx]

Let's Go Caps!

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Mrs. PacMan, as expected. Everything is on schedule. Waiting until about midnight for this to fill in



 

I can tell you the returns out near Winchester is virga.

[SnowenOutThere]

Very interesting snow conditions. Air is full of flakes that aren’t quite pixie dust but also aren’t dendrites or anything. Piling up like sand might. 

[Ji]

new HRRR further south with sleet line!

[paulythegun]

Yup, but that shit is so irritating.  Just like with severe...line has the good shit north and south of us

Trying to be positive. Trying SO HARD haha.

[Nomz]

If LWX reflectivity is to be believed, DC is about 15 miles from snow.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

warm nose underperformance?

Looks like everyone but the NAM thinks so.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

new HRRR further south with sleet line!

[psuhoffman]

Every storm is different and this is not scientific at all but I do think there is something to this…

A couple days ago I said I liked the wedge presentation in the mid levels over 2007 and 2017, examples when the mid level warmer won quick in a route. When there is a clear southward wedge into VA even in the mid levels and the mix comes at us from the southeast not due south or worse southwest we bang on way way longer. IMO it’s indicative of a deeper cold layer that’s fighting more in the mid levels.  Often when we bust high on snow in changeover situations it was when the mix was trying to advance SE to NW into the CAD wedge.

Unfortunately the guidance has shifted toward a more straight south to north look to the mid level warmth.  Unfortunately it’s been my experience that when the mid levels are advancing uniformly through  the cold wedge that way it indicates less resistance to the WAA.  The one thing that could offset this would be an epic thump which is what the 18z euro and rgem were showing.  Thats what happened in Feb 2015, Dec 2013 in situations where the warmth was advancing straight north but got halted by intense dynamic cooling.  It can work out but we need to be getting death banded from 12-15z not just light to moderate precip  

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Ji said:

new HRRR further south with sleet line!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, but that shit is so irritating.  Just like with severe...line has the good shit north and south of us

Trying to be positive. Trying SO HARD haha.

I think we're good for at least 6.  Maybe a surprise can get us to a 10am switchover and 8"

[stormtracker]

Yall remember this?  I went back to what seems like 17 years ago to the first thread I made about this storm and found this. 

[LeesburgWx]

Starting to get hype in here! Snow is in the doorstep

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yall remember this?  I went back to what seems like 17 years ago to the first thread I made about this storm and found this. 

What we call a north trend

[paulythegun]

I wasnt expecting anything more than flurries before midnight. I'll wait until then to throw a tantrum...(Not here...in some group chats!) The column is saturating - fairly quickly based on the dew points. All good!

[Nomz]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yall remember this?  I went back to what seems like 17 years ago to the first thread I made about this storm and found this. 

Don't do this to me man

[SnowenOutThere]

Doing my first jebwalk rn to get pictures. Any Mets or psu want to weigh in on when to set my alarm overnight to make sure I get up and have an hour before the sleet line?

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I can tell you the returns out near Winchester is virga.

No.  Sorry, bro.  We know your microclimate.  You can only tell us that it isn't snowing over your house.

[wawarriors4]

Visibility down to about 1.5 miles.

Light Snow, 15/8

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Doing my first jebwalk rn to get pictures. Any Mets or psu want to weigh in on when to set my alarm overnight to make sure I get up and have an hour before the sleet line?

I'm the best met in town. You should wake up at 4-5 AM. Get some sleep while you can right now.