yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ruin said: What i keep saying strong artic high its like models and forecasters are ignoring it Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: DGZ looks fantastic on the HRRR right before the flip, too. If this holds, oh my... I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio. Incredible. It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday. What could possibly go wrong? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, yoda said: Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most NGL its a pretty big step north with its totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, yoda said: Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most Would obviously take it as it lies (feel like I've said that a lot today) but a tick north on the ICON, too. Wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, das said: I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio. Incredible. It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday. What could possibly go wrong? Would love to see a picture of that when its occuring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I have zero faith in the NAM right now. I've seen this movie when we've been hoping for improvements and we get NAM'd. It always overdoes things, and in this setup the consequences are more drastic than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Then we all rip with freezing rain Really? Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet? ETA: What time about does any flip occur, and how much QPF in that time beforehand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blastedWould paralyze dc metro for at least a week. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, yoda said: Then we all rip with freezing rain It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Really? Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet? Yes. At DCA, 700-900 above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, MillvilleWx said: It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want. Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This is a snap shot of what I was talking about with the freezing rain sounding. This was near the beltway in PG county. You definitely don’t want this sounding to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'll take the 18z RGEM though 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Rgem looks like a ripper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. Yeesh, if that happens! I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago. Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster. But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred. I can only imagine moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Ummm, just NO. The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high. As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent. Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored." Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either. This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much. The fresh Arctic air from a strong high heavy precipitation equals dynamic cooling and last. I looked the low's not going as far north for the primary. Then, it was earlier, so I don't know how the w why it's showing the freezing sleet line moving closer north with every run.But yet the primary low is stained more south versus what it was showed before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RGEM looks like it is maybe a touch colder. No huge change. Totals very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ya know...for me with all this model ticking...we still have not seen the floor (6" +) threatened yet, have we? (I'm ignoring the NAM). It still looks like we are on track to see 6-10" before flip, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeesh, if that happens! I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago. Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster. But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred. I can only imagine moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s. Feb 2014, night after the Super Bowl ice storm in southern PA and northern MD was my worst. That was crazy. Rain and 21° to start. School was out next day and damage all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, yoda said: I'll take the 18z RGEM though Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ruin said: The fresh Arctic air from a strong high heavy precipitation equals dynamic cooling and last. I looked the low's not going as far north for the primary. Then, it was earlier, so I don't know how the w why it's showing the freezing sleet line moving closer north with every run.But yet the primary low is stained more south versus what it was showed before Actually I thought one of those 850 plots someone showed a page or two ago showed the primary at 18Z pushing notably farther north, like up toward the Ohio River in WV, there about, with a broad closed extension north and south through there. Whereas it was weaker and farther south at 12Z. I think it was the RRFS? Either way...I am not saying that's going to be correct, but clearly some of the models are (perhaps the NAM as well, maybe not so much the globals?) doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Seems like a pretty consistent array of outcomes that fall within the WSW of 7-14” of snow and sleet for DC from SE to NW and the ultimate figure will rest on how quickly we transition and where the banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs! hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA Been consistent for a few runs now and pretty much matches euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ok rgem calms my soul some 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. Bro, no. I'm at work from 8 pm Sat., to 8 pm. Mon. I want to go home at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA Sign. Me. Up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok rgem calms my soul some Let’s be honest, most of the models you don’t like (I also hate what I saw) are the lowest of the JV suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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