Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[yoda]

Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

What i keep saying strong artic high its like models and forecasters are ignoring it

Ummm, just NO.  The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high.  As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent.  Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored."  Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either.  This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

[das]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

DGZ looks fantastic on the HRRR right before the flip, too. If this holds, oh my...

I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio.  Incredible.  It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday.  What could possibly go wrong?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, yoda said:

Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most

NGL its a pretty big step north with its totals. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, yoda said:

Fwiw, 18z ICON would be 6-10" before flip for most

Would obviously take it as it lies (feel like I've said that a lot today) but a tick north on the ICON, too. Wrong direction.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, das said:

I know no one will care in here but the DGZ Sunday night here in NW VT for the storm is from 15K ft all the way to the surface on the GFS and up to 20K on the NAM producing large aggregates and a 20-25:1 snow ratio.  Incredible.  It will be interesting to see how a northern airport (BTV) does for my flight down to DC on Monday.  What could possibly go wrong?

Would love to see a picture of that when its occuring

[yoda]

Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blasted

[Wetbulbs88]

I have zero faith in the NAM right now. I've seen this movie when we've been hoping for improvements and we get NAM'd. It always overdoes things, and in this setup the consequences are more drastic than normal. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Then we all rip with freezing rain

Really?  Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet?

ETA:  What time about does any flip occur, and how much QPF in that time beforehand?

[Imgoinhungry]

Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blasted

Would paralyze dc metro for at least a week.


.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Then we all rip with freezing rain

It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want. 

[yoda]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Really?  Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet?

Yes.  At DCA, 700-900 above freezing... 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want. 

Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. 

[MillvilleWx]

This is a snap shot of what I was talking about with the freezing rain sounding. This was near the beltway in PG county. You definitely don’t want this sounding to come to fruition. 
 

[yoda]

I'll take the 18z RGEM though

[TSSN+]

Rgem looks like a ripper

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. 

Yeesh, if that happens!  I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago.  Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster.  But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred.  I can only imagine  moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s.

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Ummm, just NO.  The models and forecasters are absolutely NOT ignoring the strong Arctic high.  As others said above, even with a very strong high anchored, the dynamics counteract that at least to some extent.  Not saying the NAM or RRFS is or will be right, but it's not like as depicted the strong high is "ignored."  Likewise, forecasters are certainly not blowing it off either.  This is a mid-level layer issue and still uncertain exactly how that will evolve or how much.

The fresh Arctic air from a strong high heavy precipitation equals dynamic cooling and last. I looked the low's not going as far north for the primary. Then, it was earlier, so I don't know how the w why it's showing the freezing sleet line moving closer north with every run.But yet the primary low is stained more south versus what it was showed before

[baltosquid]

RGEM looks like it is maybe a touch colder. No huge change. Totals very similar

[Maestrobjwa]

Ya know...for me with all this model ticking...we still have not seen the floor (6" +) threatened yet, have we? (I'm ignoring the NAM). It still looks like we are on track to see 6-10" before flip, right? 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeesh, if that happens!  I've experienced a couple of really nasty ice storms in Atlanta when I lived there years ago.  Pouring rain but the temperatures were below freezing, and that was a relative disaster.  But...it was not that far below freezing when it occurred.  I can only imagine  moderate-heavy ZR with temps in the low-mid 20s.

Feb 2014, night after the Super Bowl ice storm in southern PA and northern MD was my worst. That was crazy. Rain and 21° to start. School was out next day and damage all over the place. 

[yoda]

Just now, yoda said:

I'll take the 18z RGEM though

Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA 

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

The fresh Arctic air from a strong high heavy precipitation equals dynamic cooling and last. I looked the low's not going as far north for the primary. Then, it was earlier, so I don't know how the w why it's showing the freezing sleet line moving closer north with every run.But yet the primary low is stained more south versus what it was showed before

Actually I thought one of those 850 plots someone showed a page or two ago showed the primary at 18Z pushing notably farther north, like up toward the Ohio River in WV, there about, with a broad closed extension north and south through there.  Whereas it was weaker and farther south at 12Z.  I think it was the RRFS?  Either way...I am not saying that's going to be correct, but clearly some of the models are (perhaps the NAM as well, maybe not so much the globals?) doing that.

[konksw]

Seems like a pretty consistent array of outcomes that fall within the WSW of 7-14” of snow and sleet for DC from SE to NW and the ultimate figure will rest on how quickly we transition and where the banding sets up. 

[psuhoffman]

I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs!  
 

hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA 

 

 

Been consistent for a few runs now and pretty much matches euro. 

[psuhoffman]

Ok rgem calms my soul some 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy. 

Bro, no. I'm at work from 8 pm Sat., to 8 pm. Mon. I want to go home at some point.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Note: sleet does enter the picture around hr 46 for DCA 

 

 

Sign. Me. Up

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok rgem calms my soul some 

Let’s be honest, most of the models you don’t like (I also hate what I saw) are the lowest of the JV suite.