“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ineedsnow]

New BOX map LFG!!!! 

[Scott Koziara]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

New BOX map LFG!!!! 

This'll be reduced, dramatically! But we'll save it for entertainment purposes. 

[ineedsnow]

22 minutes ago, Scott Koziara said:

This'll be reduced, dramatically! But we'll save it for entertainment purposes. 

pretty good model agreement now.. goodluck with that

[Scott Koziara]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty good model agreement now.. goodluck with that

New Bedford isn't getting 2 feet of snow! This is complete and utter madness! I live in Newport. I'm not getting over a foot of snow! I'll probably change to plain rain. These north tics in these SWFE type events are relentless. It'll sag south a bit at the eleventh hour but not enough to salvage this utterly preposterous forecast.

[tunafish]

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

New BOX map LFG!!!! 

Lol they updated the graphic for socials - all of 21 minutes after the first one.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

yikes..not a great trend here at 0z. 

[Ginx snewx]

Man what a beast of qpf in the South 

[SouthCoastMA]

6z NAM still amped, but ICON shifted south. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pretty much have to go 1-2 feet with lolli 30. That’s very likely now 

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty much have to go 1-2 feet with lolli 30. That’s very likely now 

12 to 16 spot 20

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty much have to go 1-2 feet with lolli 30. That’s very likely now 

Everyone wants to start off their day with an Iconic Kuchie Koo

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12 to 16 spot 20

You’ll be taking em up . 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll be taking em up . 

I'll we wait until tomorrow morning to.see where things trend

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll we wait until tomorrow morning to.see where things trend

This a new you and quite frankly we don’t like it. 

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, tunafish said:

MPM will dump his coffee on his keyboard when he sees this in a few hours.

 

Just saw it and laugh......that 5" is a killer!

I'd typically be thrilled with what we're getting......but when there's so much opportunity a mere 50-75 miles south, it's disappointing.

I'll give 12z or 18z to show a tease of moving north.  I think it's pretty locked at this point though.

[moneypitmike]

It's a Norfolk/Plymouth oounty kind of winter on the 06 GFS.

[CoastalWx]

Ha Nam almost sleets to Kevin and me.

[TheMainer]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Just saw it and laugh......that 5" is a killer!

I'd typically be thrilled with what we're getting......but when there's so much opportunity a mere 50-75 miles south, it's disappointing.

I'll give 12z or 18z to show a tease of moving north.  I think it's pretty locked at this point though.

I've been happy with seeing greater than 0.5 of QPF on every model except the GFS up here, give me 6 inches of snow and I'll groom every trail out nice. This wasn't even supposed to be a Maine storm until a few days ago so this is all bonus!

[CoastalWx]

Still some red flags for me to go 18-24. Things anSWFE type deal after all with no closed 700 low. Just a thump of big time WAA. You really need a good CCB to help with that. The monday stuff is light as modeled even if you add a fluff factor. Not to mention it slots aloft as well. 

[moneypitmike]

New Mattapoisett forecast calls for a change to sleet Sunday nigiht.

Too bad we can move the mix line north but the qpf field isn't moving with it.

Sunday Night

Snow before 3am, then sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

 

[moneypitmike]

Neither Jeff nor I even have a watch up.  There's always this though from the GYX AFD:

The mere proximity to this moisture advection will mean a powerful
conversion when the cold airmass overhead can support snow to
liquid ratios north of 15 to 1. NBM mean brings values towards
18-20 to 1 into the region.

[tavwtby]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still some red flags for me to go 18-24. Things anSWFE type deal after all with no closed 700 low. Just a thump of big time WAA. You really need a good CCB to help with that. The monday stuff is light as modeled even if you add a fluff factor. Not to mention it slots aloft as well. 

probably why ALY took totals down a bit here, and I'm still sticking with 10-14 here anyway, we'll see how the next 24 hours look model wise, but no closed low has me concerned about long duration and CCB type snow of any real accum..

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still some red flags for me to go 18-24. Things anSWFE type deal after all with no closed 700 low. Just a thump of big time WAA. You really need a good CCB to help with that. The monday stuff is light as modeled even if you add a fluff factor. Not to mention it slots aloft as well. 

Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF. 

[UnitedWx]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha Nam almost sleets to Kevin and me.

We knew that would likely show up at some point. NAM... see you at 12Z

[UnitedWx]

The last time I remember a SWFE type storm was in winter 2000. I remember it because the commute from Farmington to Simsbury was near impossible in my shitconoline van. Was supposed to be a couple inches and between 11 am and 4 pm we had near 10 inches.  I don't remember if there was coastal development with that one, but I don't believe so. This has so much potential, hopefully we cash in

[wx_observer]

Today's 3:33 AM Winter Storm Watch text now has an 8-15" storm total for the region.  That's a lot of bumping down totals in a pretty short time frame, compared to that first snowfall map that came out at 1am that showed a bunch of the south shore at 18-24".  

[UnitedWx]

Don't mean to downplay the NWS (well... yes) but honestly I haven't seen them as relevant in years.  Except sometimes for alerts, they're always a day late and a dollar short. Last weekend was a perfect example 

[tavwtby]

7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

The last time I remember a SWFE type storm was in winter 2000. I remember it because the commute from Farmington to Simsbury was near impossible in my shitconoline van. Was supposed to be a couple inches and between 11 am and 4 pm we had near 10 inches.  I don't remember if there was coastal development with that one, but I don't believe so. This has so much potential, hopefully we cash in

I believe that was the storm we were redoing a bank in Fairfield, started about 9 and they called us into the shop around noon, took 3 hours to get to Rt 8 from Black Rock area, and then another 6 hours from there to Waterbury had to go all back roads, highway packed so no plows could clear, nightmare. fun tho...

[CT Rain]

8 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Today's 3:33 AM Winter Storm Watch text now has an 8-15" storm total for the region.  That's a lot of bumping down totals in a pretty short time frame, compared to that first snowfall map that came out at 1am that showed a bunch of the south shore at 18-24".  

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. 

Seems like it's NBM gone awry. 

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. 

Seems like it's NBM gone awry. 

noticed ALY has taken the map away from the watch page, and the regional map doesn't match other offices maps, odd