1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

[AWMT30]

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting. You should do well.

Yeah we are in a pretty good spot here hopefully. 

[Stevo6899]

What a beaut to watch on radar and the models. Could've been a big dog but I guess we'll be grateful for whatever we get. Impressive temps this morning up there. Its already a balmy 73 down here this morning.

[TimChgo9]

It looks like the storm maybe struggling to overcome the dry air in S OH. “Future radar” showing snow not starting here in KILN until very late in the day. 

 

[Baum]

19 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Will be interesting to see this sharp gradient play out for us.

Going to need the lake moisture magnet.

[Stebo]

43 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting. You should do well.

Lol, no Clinton Township is not getting a dusting. Also aren't you in Florida, you aren't getting snow there.

[Stevo6899]

Just now, Stebo said:

Lol, no Clinton Township is not getting a dusting. 

Who knows. Cutoff is close plus the dry air. Nowcasting for sure.

[AWMT30]

SEESH 

[A-L-E-K]

Ride it^

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, AWMT30 said:

SEESH 

If i had a private plane, I'd be flying into Bloomington. First, to have a beer with cignetti.

[DocATL]

Ride it^

.

[TimChgo9]

Watching developments for S OH with trepidation. NAM shows 8-10”. All others GFS, HRRR, RAP, and Euro show in excess of 12” up to 22”.  I fear the NAM may be on to something. I hope I’m wrong. 

[Powerball]

For what little it's worth, snow amounts are busting on the low end so far in OKC and Tulsa. NWS has already lowered their totals.

Not because of temps mind you, but because there's just too much dry air. It's causing the opposite issue (which michsnowfreak alluded to earlier) of the snow being that sugary type, which is very inefficient for accumulatiom.

It may or may not have any bearing on the eventual outcome for you guys upstream, but just something to be aware of.

[Stevo6899]

5 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

Watching developments for S OH with trepidation. NAM shows 8-10”. All others GFS, HRRR, RAP, and Euro show in excess of 12” up to 22”.  I fear the NAM may be on to something. I hope I’m wrong. 

I think maybe take a break from the models until tomorrow morning and just nowcast with the radar. Watching every model is gonna stress you out. 

[TimChgo9]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think maybe take a break from the models until tomorrow morning and just nowcast with the radar. Watching every model is gonna stress you out. 

Probably a good idea. Watching radars in the region to see how it develops.  

[nwohweather]

Watching developments for S OH with trepidation. NAM shows 8-10”. All others GFS, HRRR, RAP, and Euro show in excess of 12” up to 22”.  I fear the NAM may be on to something. I hope I’m wrong. 

Relax, this isn’t a wildfire barreling towards your town. Just enjoy lots of snow and days working from home

[Chicago916]

Breaking news: Took 24hr lead time, but trash GFS finally caved to EURO lol

[Powerball]

33 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I think maybe take a break from the models until tomorrow morning and just nowcast with the radar. Watching every model is gonna stress you out. 

It could also be worse.

Poor guys on the east coast are now sweating mixing issues that will significantly cut down on their originally projected big dog numbers.

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, TimChgo9 said:

It looks like the storm maybe struggling to overcome the dry air in S OH. “Future radar” showing snow not starting here in KILN until very late in the day. 

 

pretty sure start time wasn't till late evening

[Stevo6899]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It could also be worse.

Poor guys on the east coast are now sweating mixing issues that will significantly cut down on their originally projected big dog numbers.

I don't think anyone in here is going to feel sorry for anyone on the east coast. Its just a reminder to watch the models with caution and never assume you're in a good spot. Ive lost count how many times a place like Columbus in this setup ends up with sleet when snow was modeled for days. Luckily this time around, the arctic air is allowing our Ohio friends to relax with this one.

[AWMT30]

Zero tears shed for anyone on the EC.... Now tears of laughter absolutely love seeing them get pingers instead of a Big Dog. 

[nvck]

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

pretty sure start time wasn't till late evening

yeah, simref was misleading for a while, as dp depressions are still 10-15 degrees until late evening. not really expecting any snow accumulations until late this evening, when some moisture finally works in

[nvck]

20" of this falls Sunday calendar day, would easily be the highest all-time in cincy

[Powerball]

21 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I don't think anyone in here is going to feel sorry for anyone on the east coast. Its just a reminder to watch the models with caution and never assume you're in a good spot. Ive lost count how many times a place like Columbus in this setup ends up with sleet when snow was modeled for days. Luckily this time around, the arctic air is allowing our Ohio friends to relax with this one.

 

All I'm saying is that it could always be worse.

There's been quite a bit of quibbling over the exact total amounts, but at least folks in this sub are going to have an all-snow event regardless (and for some, their biggest in a long while).

[michsnowfreak]

Dtx thinking 4-6" here. Could have close to a foot of powder on the ground Monday morning!

[buckeye]

6 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Zero tears shed for anyone on the EC.... Now tears of laughter absolutely love seeing them get pingers instead of a Big Dog. 

eh, gotta feel for them a little.  Nothing worse than tracking a big dog only to have the rug pulled.   At the same time though, if I lived there I would always be concerned of the mixing and warm air....it literally comes with every threat they get, so they shouldn't of been too shocked once models started showing it a couple of days ago.   That trend always gets worse and never reverses once it shows up.

 

[ILSNOW]

for chicago peeps from Milwaukee NWS

Confidence is increasing that a lake effect snow band will
  come onshore early Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. If
  the snow band comes ashore, moderate to heavy rates are
  possible from Milwaukee southward.

 

Models are indicating more confidence in impacts to
Lake Michigan counties (specifically Milwaukee metro southward)
during the early morning to midday hours Sunday. With lake
temperatures near 3 degrees C and 850 mb temperatures between
negative 15 and negative 20 degrees C, more than enough
convective potential exists for moderate to heavy snowfall rates
(up to 1 inch per hour) if the central portions of the band
make it onshore.

There is still the chance that high pressure
will win out over the developing northeast flow, and therefore
still possible that only trace snow showers will make it
onshore. However, the forecasted strength of the developing low
to the south would make that solution less likely based on the
preliminary model data this morning.

Alek is going to clean up

[michsnowfreak]

NWS issued a winter storm warning for monroe co for 5-8". Advisory for wayne for 4-6" isolated 7". Advisory for Oakland and macomb for 2-4" isolated 5"