January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[PhilsFanDrew]

11 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Not a fan of this downgrade.  

It's reasonable but I believe because the cold air is in place at the onset the ratios especially as you get to the NW of I-95 are going to be somewhere between 15:1-20:1.  Even if there is mixing that reaches as far as Northampton/southern Carbon county, I think it's when there is already nearly a foot of snow on the ground and if that was snow it would be of the lighter variety that would only add an additional 3-4 inches.   

[Physicsteve]

Yeah it sucks but I think they’re trying to hammer home to the public not to expect 18” of snow like apple weather and similarly shallow apps have been espousing.

I do have a feeling we can over-perform during the thump based on seasonal flavor and the bitter cold of this antecedent airmass. Combined with some favorable dynamics and the few recent runs mentioned by others that show a slightly delayed flip, perhaps we can achieve the higher end ranges after all prior to dreading heavier echoes.

[Physicsteve]

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

[PhilsFanDrew]

15 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

Yeah it sucks but I think they’re trying to hammer home to the public not to expect 18” of snow like apple weather and similarly shallow apps have been espousing.

I do have a feeling we can over-perform during the thump based on seasonal flavor and the bitter cold of this antecedent airmass. Combined with some favorable dynamics and the few recent runs mentioned by others that show a slightly delayed flip, perhaps we can achieve the higher end ranges after all prior to dreading heavier echoes.

Agreed.  Obviously I'm mostly concerned about my neck of the woods in the LV and I'm not paying as close attention to points much further north or south.  I still think 10-16 inches is a reasonable forecast for the LV.  15-16 if by some chance it remains all snow.  But I think by the time mixing becomes a factor to lower totals there is already going to be 8-9 inches on the ground because of the higher ratio at the onset.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Physicsteve said:

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

Tomorrow during the heavy thump. Sounds delicious!! 

[Physicsteve]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tomorrow during the heavy thump. Sounds delicious!! 

It is, would recommend, and therefore the last one that Ive been saving for just such an occasion. 8%er so a Sleety Nap may be in order afterwards. 

[ChescoWx]

Been a while since I have viewed a JB uh the other JB's forecast....I always felt bad how much grief he got for the famous forecast fail

[Duca892]

I was actually shocked to see a met from NBC10 continue to call for 12-18in in the LV

[CoolHandMike]

15 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

I dunno, but I was inspired by another poster here enough to go out and buy a bottle of champagne for a champagne breakfast of sorts tomorrow. Hand-made bagels are proofing in the fridge right now, so I'll boil/bake those off first thing in the morning to have with cream cheese and lox, and maybe even some poached eggs.

 

In other news... it's super cold out right now! 15°F is the kind of cold where your face starts to hurt after a few minutes.

[Voyager]

30 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

In that case, drink responsibly...

[LVLion77]

Personal final prediction (sleet ruins the fun points south of Poconos) - Mt Pocono - 12-16” all snow, Allentown -8-12” front end and then sleet, Philly - 6-9” front end and then sleet, South NJ/DE 3-6” front end and then mix to rain. If the coastal can become primary faster than forecast, then perhaps Philly and north are all 12-16”

[PhilsFanDrew]

25 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I was actually shocked to see a met from NBC10 continue to call for 12-18in in the LV

That seems a touch high.  I think 10-16 is far more reasonable for the LV.  I'd be surprised but not shocked if LV was held to below double digits.  Ratio is going to be high throughout until there is warmer air aloft causes mixing so unless there is virga or a dry air slot for an extended time I think it's rash to aggressively slash totals.

[Fields27]

Via RadarScope, doesnt seem to be too much virga. Snow reaching the ground all through Virginia under some pretty light returns. We can't afford to lose hours to virga while we watch that mix line race N. Could be a good sign.

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[BBasile]

56 minutes ago, Physicsteve said:

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

Models showing me flipping around 16z, so sometime before that would be great.  Thanks!

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Personal final prediction (sleet ruins the fun points south of Poconos) - Mt Pocono - 12-16” all snow, Allentown -8-12” front end and then sleet, Philly - 6-9” front end and then sleet, South NJ/DE 3-6” front end and then mix to rain. If the coastal can become primary faster than forecast, then perhaps Philly and north are all 12-16”

For some reason, I'm thinking there will be a finish of going back to snow as it pulls away, drawing the cold air back down again, so it's a sleet sandwich..

[LVLion77]

For some reason, I'm thinking there will be a finish of going back to snow as it pulls away, drawing the cold air back down again, so it's a sleet sandwich..

Often the wraparound changeover back to snow does not work out, but occasionally it does. Fingers crossed to get a few inches at the end.

[Physicsteve]

The fact it’s still going up the coast on its way to hit Boston may prove Agnes right. This is a large, long duration system for all involved and not something just scooting ots or caught in a super fast flow. Not saying we’ll cash in on the back end but maybe we can pad some stats. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

So we haven't been NAMd yet. Is 0z the run that does it?

[ChescoWx]

18z Euro increased snow by a couple inches...it still shows way too much ZR which will never happen IMHO. Looking at soundings they are not ZR only IP.

[Duca892]

15 minutes ago, PhilsFanDrew said:

That seems a touch high.  I think 10-16 is far more reasonable for the LV.  I'd be surprised but not shocked if LV was held to below double digits.  Ratio is going to be high throughout until there is warmer air aloft causes mixing so unless there is virga or a dry air slot for an extended time I think it's rash to aggressively slash totals.

I don’t genuinely know what they are basing it off of lol

[The Iceman]

 

This apple weather app is causing chaos 

[PhilsFanDrew]

9 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I don’t genuinely know what they are basing it off of lol

Higher ratio snow.  While I agree that it's very likely much of the LV is near or at a foot when it changes over, I don't see how it touches anywhere close to the high end when its far more likely than not there will be mixing and not just in the final couple hours before it pulls away.

[jrodd321]

18z euro is damn and keeps moving that 12” line southeast 

[bigtenfan]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

This apple weather app is causing chaos 

I addressed this earlier today. Still saying 18-22 for tha Malvern Paoli area. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if they ended up being right .

[LVLion77]

 
This apple weather app is causing chaos 

It has me at 20”-24” up here in the Lehigh Valley ! Crazy.


.

[Violentweatherfan]

4 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

18z euro is damn and keeps moving that 12” line southeast 

That’s one helluva gradient 

[RedSky]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we haven't been NAMd yet. Is 0z the run that does it?

How much sleet you want hmm

[Joshb32689]

7 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

I addressed this earlier today. Still saying 18-22 for tha Malvern Paoli area. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if they ended up being right .

Outside of Coatesville - north of the valley. It keeps ticking up for us. 
 

The amount of flack they should take “if” they get this wrong. They’re a $3 trillion company.

[MacChump]

2 hours ago, Physicsteve said:

On a more serious meteorological note, when should I drink this “Snowy Night” stout? Tonight, seeing as the snow starts overnight? Or do I have it early in the day tomorrow in the hopes of delaying the flip and having a snowy night on Sunday? Remember, the fate of the storm hinges on this decision. 

Tomorrow!! I have a stout ready to go also that I picked up Thursday night:

[The Iceman]

18 minutes ago, MacChump said:

Tomorrow!! I have a stout ready to go also that I picked up Thursday night:

Tired hands good choice. I’m more of an Alien Church guy, but can’t knock anything by them. Their owner is a great dude too.