January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z GFS upped the ante:

 

[MickeyTim6533]

6Z is a crush job

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z rgem  had 4-6" snow before plowing the mix line due N and turning to sleet

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z gefs is a thing of beauty. Minimal mixing. Seems things have settled down since the pac data was ingested last night.

[Newman]

GEFS and GFS are near mint perfect, which has me nervous because they're always cooler and more progressive. We're going to see some crazy QPF bombs with our CAMs in the next few days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI euro drops about 11" before ending as a mix.

[Duca892]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z rgem  had 4-6" snow before plowing the mix line due N and turning to sleet

That trend simply terrifies me and why I feel pretty ok saying 6-8in for many before the slop 

[wkd]

On the 06Z gfs the temps at 850 and 700mb never get above 32F.  No sleet.

[Newman]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

AI euro drops about 11" before ending as a mix.

Ticked colder, so did the 06z Ukie with heights lower/confluence stronger over southern Canada.

[Newman]

At the surface, high pressure has actually ticked stronger and further south at storm onset with deeper CAD down the spine Of the Appalachians. This can certainly help with keeping the sleet at bay, but again the warm nose is up at at 700mb level so it can only do so much if we still drive the primary up into WV or SW PA.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS upped the ante:

 

Guessing that’s the new injested data now from Hurricane Hunters?

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

At the surface, high pressure has actually ticked stronger and further south at storm onset with deeper CAD down the spine Of the Appalachians. This can certainly help with keeping the sleet at bay, but again the warm nose is up at at 700mb level so it can only do so much if we still drive the primary up into WV or SW PA.

It definitely looked like the high up north beats it down a bit.  I wonder if it continues to beat it down a bit more as we get closer to game. 

[Mikeymac5306]

What we don't need is .25 of ice on top of 12+" of snow. 

[Albedoman]

23 minutes ago, Newman said:

At the surface, high pressure has actually ticked stronger and further south at storm onset with deeper CAD down the spine Of the Appalachians. This can certainly help with keeping the sleet at bay, but again the warm nose is up at at 700mb level so it can only do so much if we still drive the primary up into WV or SW PA.

The 1035 HP  is still in play saying it for days

[Albedoman]

7 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

What we don't need is .25 of ice on top of 12+" of snow. 

1994 all over again folks if that happens

 

[Violentweatherfan]

9 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

1994 all over again folks if that happens

 

I think it’ll be sleet, what also concerns me is the redevelopment off the coast might bust. 
 

Also am I seeing the 6Z GFS has no sleet/ZR in our area?

Edit: let’s not forget the dry slot potential 

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, Newman said:

At the surface, high pressure has actually ticked stronger and further south at storm onset with deeper CAD down the spine Of the Appalachians. This can certainly help with keeping the sleet at bay, but again the warm nose is up at at 700mb level so it can only do so much if we still drive the primary up into WV or SW PA.

It also drove the primary further south into Alabama. Good things for snow lovers.