January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[LVblizzard]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Primary gets to the PA border but coastal saves our bacon

Also the fact that the WAA thump is quite intense and the majority of the precip is done by the time the warm nose arrives.

[bringmesnow1]

23 minutes ago, rickrd said:

Better Kuchera shot. Canadian. 

This makes many folks happy from DC to Boston.  But if the northern trend keeps up we are going to be feeling like the folks in VA/NC who were anticipating the a snow dome and are now having model agita.

[RedSky]

10 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Also the fact that the WAA thump is quite intense and the majority of the precip is done by the time the warm nose arrives.

Friggin pivotal cached me an old run I was looking at 12z, 0z is hot garbage

[CoolHandMike]

Spent all afternoon lurking in the MA sub. I now have a severe case of whiplash. Holy heck, that used to be entertaining but I just can't keep up anymore down there.

Still gonna go out and get the bread and milk tomorrow though.

 

Oh btw it's 3.0°F outside my house right now. It hit 5 this morning, and one of my dogs was trying to do a kangaroo poop because the snow was too cold for her front paws, poor girl. Might try to put on her booties tomorrow morning but I'm not sure that'll be any more comfortable for her...

[snowwors2]

Pipersville, PA: -2.0° (yes, that’s negative)‼️

[Albedoman]

 -3 at the house. now.  This storm is going to cripple the TN valley. After the ice and snow leave this area, the temps will be -10 dgrees even in Nashville. Pipes bursting, no power . Declared federal disaster areas. These idiot protestors in MN better worry about their friends in the south because many are going to be without power and heat for weeks. This IMHO could rival TS Helene in damage.  This  storm is going to send those global warming radicals back to the basement too. This is getting serious 

 

[RedSky]

Euro skynet and IBM are not hot garbage

[CoolHandMike]

7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

These idiot protestors in MN better worry about their friends in the south because many are going to be without power and heat for weeks.

 

Not sure what that has to do with any of our weather here but ok

Down to 2.3°F! Hella cold.

[RedSky]

ECM is high end MECS 

Take

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, RedSky said:

ECM is high end MECS 

Take

18" here,  not much mix. Looks like mixing gets to the turnpike and stops. Even it we get sleet i think the thump is going to be significant

 

[mattinpa]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

18" here,  not much mix. Looks like mixing gets to the turnpike and stops. Even it we get sleet i think the thump is going to be significant

 

With that high pressure, how much north do you think this could get? I would imagine snow totals will still be significant. 

[RedSky]

Plane sampled the Baja for 0z look what happened

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

With that high pressure, how much north do you think this could get? I would imagine snow totals will still be significant. 

Not much further then what's being shown. The primary will die off an pop a coastal

[Duca892]

Still so much time to go with this one, but feels like we are starting to hone in on at least something. By tomorrow 12z I think we can start taking amounts seriously. Should be around 84hrs from go time by that point. 

[Newman]

Just got the chance to look at the 0z suite... Wow, there's your north trend and then some. Now that it seems increasingly possible you aim the intense WAA snows over the region, the entire evolution and storm is a bit different. I know the global models are showing a solid 18-24 hour storm, but from experience you usually only get 12-15 hours at most from a WAA thump until you dry slot. If I were to be super picky and extra HECS hunter, that would be what I'm not a fan of. But hey, if the Euro is right and you throw 1.25" QPF into an air mass with surface temps in the upper single digits and lower teens, as well with localized 700 fgen, easily crank out a few hours of 2-3+ in/hr rates.

Also, this could be an overreaction from the models with the shift north, we'll just have to see. But I do think if you want a true long duration event, you want to play the balance between getting into the WAA snows and the backside ULL/coastal that develops as the storm departs.

[dseagull]

Thats an awfully strong HP, touting 1040mb or even slightly higher.  I think all noteworthy models have a handle on how quickly is departs, and the extent of the arctic air.   But is the Euro picking up on this transfer correctly?  What data was ingested to show such a massive correction north?  The Baja low?

[susqushawn]

Icon liking the more amped solution at 6z

[Duca892]

https://x.com/nws_mountholly/status/2013913665032814952?s=46&t=YkE11mhTfthv8oqd69_zGA

 

NBM up to 70-80% for 6+ inches for SEPA

[Albedoman]

-5 at abe. -9 at my house so deep in the LV. Coldest since 94. I already posted that storm in 94 as refenced it got to -15 at ABE  all time cold record. . OMG just wait until this storm passes. Temps will be below -10  easily and may not even get out of the single digits for highs.  You guys got your feicking cold thats for sure- now watch the utility bills climb.

[Duca892]

Hate how much time there is for this to go the other way still over 100hrs

[Tucker1027]

.

[penndotguy]

-3 in Western Berks, pretty impressive I must say. I’m not sure the N trend continues much more with that strong of a high pressure I’d almost expect to see the correction South a bit today, still I like where our Region sits. 

[Duca892]

4 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

-3 in Western Berks, pretty impressive I must say. I’m not sure the N trend continues much more with that strong of a high pressure I’d almost expect to see the correction South a bit today, still I like where our Region sits. 

Honestly my expectation too. It won’t shock me to see these 10+ inch runs shift back down south, but I like the majority of folks around the Berks/Lehigh area for 6-8in

[Duca892]

Thanks to the MA. EURO is another smoke show 

[Mikeymac5306]

6Z has the line to about Dover/ Baltimore south.  We get smoked! 

 

Are the north trends a blip i.e. the 12z runs south yesterday?

Quagmire is too tired. Manager is calling time and pointing to the pen. 

[Newman]

The 6z Euro backed off just a tad with how far the primary drives north which kept the mid-level warmth south of Philly for now and also keeps the dry slot a bit more muted as the low transfers to the coast

[Duca892]

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

The 6z Euro backed off just a tad with how far the primary drives north which kept the mid-level warmth south of Philly for now and also keeps the dry slot a bit more muted as the low transfers to the coast

Map is nuts drops like 17in kuchera all over SEPA up to Allentown 

[Violentweatherfan]

Per WPC the northern shift could be a mirage. Due to the intensity of the phasing of the northern jet and the sub tropical jet. WPC is confident that the interaction between streams is slightly over amplified and the trend won’t be so northern and will adjust with better sampling as the week progresses