Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

UKIE total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[MJO812]

Ukie should have been more snow. Stupid dry slot. LOL

[Jt17]

 
UKIE total QPF storm


 
Total snow / sleet (10:1)
 

lol .6 for nyc and 1.1-1.3 all around.. ok


.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie should have been more snow. Stupid dry slot. LOL

Yeah very weird

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

So is 20" of snow with an inch and a half of water content.  

Which is heavier, a pound of feathers or a pound of rocks?

When I read this to myself I hear it in my Dad's voice.

[Snowman92]

Lol , its either dry slot or shit ton of sleet. Pick your poison. 

Snow is still there regardless

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

UKIE total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

LOL that dry slot is almost funny.

[MJO812]

Just now, Snowman92 said:

Lol , its either dry slot or shit ton of sleet. Pick your poison. 

Snow is still there regardless

Its not sleet

[coastalplainsnowman]

Just now, Snowman92 said:

Lol , its either dry slot or shit ton of sleet. Pick your poison. 

Snow is still there regardless

Snowman92 is 4.842105 times more bullish about snow than Snowman19.

[Noteaster101]

I love the quote from Bernie Rayno and it serves true, the biggest snows you get is when you can smell the rain!

[MJO812]

Just now, Noteaster101 said:

I love the quote from Bernie Rayno and it serves true, the biggest snows you get is when you can smell the rain!

This has been true for years

[Snowman92]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its not sleet

I am saying from 2 different models. One model dry slots you , the other gives a whole lot of sleet mixing in. Can't seem to win here

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 00z GEFS total mean QPF

 

 

Total snow / sleet mean (10:1)

 

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

When I read this to myself I hear it in my Dad's voice.

He's a good man.

[NorthShoreWx]

One problem is that we tend to forget that the p-type maps are caca:

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet
NYC

SREF:  1.3 /  (8.4)
NAM: 1.3 / (8.4)
RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6)
ICON: 1.3 / (7.5)
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / ( 10)
GFS: 1.4 / (14.8)
GGEM: 1.5 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.9 - 11 / (6 - 10)
GEFS: 1.4 / (14)
 

 

Updated 

[DreamBig]

16 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

So is 20" of snow with an inch and a half of water content.  

Which is heavier, a pound of feathers or a pound of rocks?

That's silly. Do you think shoveling 40 lbs of sand is the same as 40 lbs of fluffy snow? I assure you it's not. It's not just a matter of weight. It's harder to get on the shovel, it distributes differently, right on the edge, and if your shovel tilts even a little, it all tries to slide to one side.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

That's silly. Do you think shoveling 40 lbs of sand is the same as 40 lbs of fluffy snow? I assure you it's not. It's not just a matter of weight. It's harder to get on the shovel, it distributes differently, right on the edge, and if your shovel tilts even a little, it all tries to slide to one side.

You've got 2 days left to hit the gym.

Balance is certainly an issue with a heavily weighted shovel.

Personally, I don't load the shovel with 40 pounds of anything.

 

[winterwarlock]

Enough

 

I dont have to wait for the Euro

 

Here is Warlock's  first call 54 hours out...and being a first call this will change at least once before final call

8-12 inches Central Jersey up to Newark/NYC that could see as little as 6 if sleet mix moves in quicker and if sleet is delayed or never materializes we see the 12-14 inch totals

10-14 inches N of 78 to Nw NJ. If sleet reaches these areas could cut down to 8. Colder air could make for high ratios and 16 inch amounts in sweet spots



6-9 inches monmouth/ocean/philly/south jersey. Could approach 12 inches if warm nose does not materialize

Coastal south jersey 3-6.

[Mo Snow]

when does euro run become available

[DreamBig]

8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

You've got 2 days left to hit the gym.

Balance is certainly an issue with a heavily weighted shovel.

Personally, I don't load the shovel with 40 pounds of anything.

 

Lol. Fair enough. I did not word that well. But I meant however many shovelfulls it takes. All I know is I have a lot of experience shoveling both fluffy, wet, and slushy and I'll take fluffy over wet and definitely over slushy, any day. It is just so much easier to scoop and handle. Maybe it's also just a natural tendency to load more weight of slush on the shovel, since it looks like so little.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Enough

 

I dont have to wait for the Euro

 

Here is Warlock's  first call 54 hours out...and being a first call this will change at least once before final call

8-12 inches Central Jersey up to Newark/NYC that could see as little as 6 if sleet mix moves in quicker and if sleet is delayed or never materializes we see the 12-14 inch totals

10-14 inches N of 78 to Nw NJ. If sleet reaches these areas could cut down to 8. Colder air could make for high ratios and 16 inch amounts in sweet spots



6-9 inches monmouth/ocean/philly/south jersey. Could approach 12 inches if warm nose does not materialize

Coastal south jersey 3-6.

Reasonable 

[eduggs]

47 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS has hardly budged. Either awfully wrong or going to pull a massive W.

It has actually adjusted steadily north with both primary and secondary lows for several cycles in a row. I see no reason why it won't continue to do so.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

when does euro run become available

30-40 minutes

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

when does euro run become available

1230

[NorthShoreWx]

There will probably be some sleet, but my hunch is it's not going to come through as a rapid and final changeover.  There will be pinging on the window followed by hurried posts that it's over, with followup from the same posters an hour later that's its back to all snow, or two towns are getting snow and the town right between them is sleeting and then it reverses.  Good chance it all ends with a bit more snow accumulation. It's not going to be a clean process north of I-78, unless it sleets all the way to Albany, which it won't.

Side note, LMAO over the UKMET NYC precip hole.  That's not going to happen.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

Lol. Fair enough. I did not word that well. But I meant however many shovelfulls it takes. All I know is I have a lot of experience shoveling both fluffy, wet, and slushy and I'll take fluffy over wet and definitely over slushy, any day. It is just so much easier to scoop and handle. Maybe it's also just a natural tendency to load more weight of slush on the shovel, since it looks like so little.

You didn't mention slush.  Slush sucks.

[TJW014]

Closing in on 48 hours until go time for some of us. Here's my initial dartboard throw. Never underestimate the jacuzzi that is the Atlantic, even if the buoys are only reading 40. 12 hours of ENE wind, it's going to bring some rain to the coast. Feel free to throw some Oscar Meyers.