Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

As @NorthShoreWxsaid, there may be times where it’s a snow/sleet mix. So that purple is a mix rather than pure sleet. Very rate dependent. If you’re under a big band you’ll flip back to snow IMO

Perhaps yes. Either way we might see 2 to 4" of whatever on top of the snow

[donsutherland1]

The RGEM is running.

[wthrmn654]

[mikeysed]

3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

How much is 2 inch per hour at 15:1 in 3 hours??

Snow totals by ratio

10:1 → 0.40 × 10 = 4 inches

15:1 → 0.40 × 15 = 6 inches

20:1 → 0.40 × 20 = 8 inches

[SACRUS]

1/24 00z RGEM 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Can't remember the last time I saw such a wild range of snow amounts lol

[lee59]

10 PM Temps. Central Park 19, Albany 9, Buffalo 1, International Falls MN. -21 (9PM)

[Stormlover74]

Rgem looks largely unchanged through hr 36

[SACRUS]

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Fun fact Jan 23,2025 the low temperature was 13... crazy nearly sand a year later

[SACRUS]

RGM

 

[Stormlover74]

Hr 42 rgem is a tad north

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

Ends up slightly snowier than 18z due to a better front end thump

[mikeysed]

GFS time

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

That at 10:1 ratio... It's gonna be 15:1 atleast when this gets going. But how long that lasts is anyone's guess..

The ratios will be good when we get started but they will lower as more warm air moves in aloft. We need temps from -12 to -18C in the layer where snowflakes are made for the best ratios. As we get warmer than that in the clouds the ratios will get lousier. Inland where it’s all snow will do well with ratios but wouldn’t surprise me near the city that we average 10:1. Thing is though that the sleet counts in the accumulations, so if we get 6” with 0.6” liquid then another 0.6” liquid as sleet, that adds up to almost 8” total since sleet has a 3:1 ratio. Time to concede near the city that a good chunk of the liquid that falls will be in the form of sleet. Hopefully it’s more like 20-30% but the NAM would be something like 60% and primarily a sleet storm. 

[SACRUS]

 

[Prue11]

11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Can't remember the last time I saw such a wild range of snow amounts lol

Yeah you’ll go nuts obsessing over it. I’m just going to enjoy whatever I get at this point. 

[samdman95]

one random thought: while we are used to Manhattan/Central Park getting lower totals due to the urban heat island effect, I’d assume that’s going to be less of the case here as surface temps aren’t an issue and it’s only upper levels where warm temps are coming in

[MJO812]

Rgem is around 9 inches for the city. Snowier than 18z with a good thump.

[Wxbear25]

Front-end WAA, much like mid-level warmth, often overperforms. Definitely dont sleep on it

[psv88]

I think the RGEM looks better. Maybe a tick colder out here

[jm1220]

Also if we have a lousy broken up snow shield that will mean that we have inconsistent/lousy lift and saturation which means crappy snow ratios as well. We need strong lift, saturation and snow growth in the -12 to -18C layer. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, samdman95 said:

one random thought: while we are used to Manhattan/Central Park getting lower totals due to the urban heat island effect, I’d assume that’s going to be less of the case here as surface temps aren’t an issue and it’s only upper levels where warm temps are coming in

UHI won’t be a problem with temps in the low 20s. It will stick everywhere right away. 

[SACRUS]

RGEM

 

Total QPF storm

 

Total snow (10:1)

[psv88]

GFS held. Good suite so far. Looks like a sick thump 

[psv88]

Best RGEM run yet for Long Island. 10-12”. Sick!

[mikeysed]

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5
 

Updated

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

GFS held. Good suite so far. Looks like a sick thump 

Yeah, dude - I’m excited for it. Should be fun!  
 

In reality this just morphed into a super amped system that’s largely saved by the arctic dome above us, otherwise we’d all mostly be raining Sunday.

It’s a cool storm, been fun to track. 

And I’ll take 8 and some sleet and call it a day. Not gonna complain about that after the past few winters.