Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[TriPol]

10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Was just looking at the EPS. Looks like a decently large spread on where the primary low is.

According to the EPS mean, there is a definite indication of a MAJOR coastal low pressure center near the latitude of the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England areas. The evidence that the ensemble members are plotting closely together shows that the group appears willing to evolve toward a coastal redevelopment or borrowed coastal system as opposed to working directionally inland.

The Normalized Spread of the ensemble members indicates a low degree of spread across the Northeast region as indicated by the region of North and Central New Jersey and a decreasing amount of uncertainty narrowing in New York City. The greatest area of spread, i.e., the west and south of the city, indicates the confidence level for the track is very high.

This also indicates mid-level pattern evolution will transfer to the surface of the climate system in an uncomplicated fashion. The ensemble indicates the same path of motion that has been forecasted by the H5 atmosphere since prior to multiple computer models becoming consistent at the H5, including last night's European model update. At this time the only remaining questions are how much water will fall within the axial centerline of maximum impact and when will maximum rainfall occur.

This is why we chase storms all winter. Why we stay up until 3 am refreshing, analyzing. All because of storms like this.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and a very wide range of weather conditions usually in that 75 mile radius because of the terrain and ocean

Yes orange county winter climo is closer to Albany then to NYC lol even though it's way closer geographically to NYC.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end.

It doesn't even flip on LI (at least on those Pivotal p-type maps).  Rare but not unheard of.  Reminds me of 2-13-14.

[wthrmn654]

By Chance was Any data at 12z from recon planes today yet? 

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. 

Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend.

[WeatherGeek2025]

23 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If the 0 degree line is hugging LI like that very good chance some sleet makes it up to about 30 miles north of that line. The nam will sniff this out. 

i was just pointing out what the model depicted

[Breene]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

look at this map it shows 850's below freezing that shows snow all around south of long island and nyc could be sleet but nyc and north is all snow on the euro. its a great run!

I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Icon rolling

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. 

Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend.

especially if the mid-level warmer air starts surging north causing  alot of instability in the atmosphere - question is where this will happen ?

[weatherpruf]

and what can conclude from that analysis....not being snide. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Breene said:

I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left 

I definitely understand, Parts of Long Island could flip to sleet unfortunately, even NYC. I am mostly basing my forecasting off GFS and especially Euro AI.  plenty of time still

[Wxbear25]

Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo

All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning.

It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning.

Yep and not being so amped

[BoulderWX]

ICON showing a lot more ice this run - something to watch for sure. 

[jdj5211]

ICON with the warm push





.

[BoulderWX]

ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. 

[Neblizzard]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. 

This is why you don’t trust models 4-5 days out . Especially when a specific area is in the bullseye .  

[jdj5211]

Ewwwww




.

[mob1]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

Ewwwww




.

That blows 

[Wxbear25]

Yeah… for Long Island and points south, the best hope we have is that the phase is messy and the wave ejecting eastward is weaker. Runs like this are thump to sleet, verbatim

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim. 

been a trend all day-continue northward ticks...

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

Ewwwww




.

Icon is literally the crappiest

model it's like looking at the old Cras

[Brian5671]

wonder if that's the new data being injected into the models from the balloons or whatever they did out west

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

ICON with the warm push





.

looks like the Euro timing and mixing set up

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

been a trend all day-continue northward ticks...

I think this would be on the extreme end of guidance but mixing to some degree looks likely along the coast and potentially further inland. Lots of time for further adjustments either way. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Icon is literally the crappiest

model it's like looking at the old Cras

True-but will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit-GFS will be interesting

[jdj5211]

Icon is literally the crappiest
model it's like looking at the old Cras

Crappy when it’s not a great run. Good when it is a great run! As is the rule with all models.


.

[Santa Claus]

rudolph the warm nosed reindeer

had robust mid level warmth

and if you saw the soundings

you would even say “that’s sleet”

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

That blows 

Still 6+ almost entire subforum