Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[nycsnow]

Sleet line hugging the south shore but very very slow to advance 

[MJO812]

HRRR is over a foot of snow for NYC

Mix line stalls under  Brooklyn

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

With the extremely cold and dry air would expect the snow to start out fine and grainy early on.  Once the lift and saturation gets underway look for nice dendrites that accumulate efficiently.

Most likely. Probably the same by you.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Agreed but it’s also not alone. Minus the nam all the other short range mesos do this

It’s getting to the point where I start considering it. If other models trend south/colder tonight it’s onto something. 

[nycsnow]

Still snowing

[MJO812]

10:1 is also near a foot. Great run.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s getting to the point where I start considering it. If other models trend south/colder tonight it’s onto something. 

I’m really curious like I was mentioning before if the battle zone really is Long Island does snow win out under the heavier echoes and it’s not just a wall of sleet coming in but more of a battle based off intensity 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

It's within the realm of possibility, but if I was a betting man (which I am not because that is verboten in this thread ) I would bet against it for at least 90% of the island.

[NJwx85]

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's within the realm of possibility, but if I was a betting man (which I am not because that is verboten in this thread ) I would bet against it for at least 90% of the island.

Prob freezing drizzle which means Monday we’d have icebergs 

[Snowlover11]

Hrrr is certainly exciting but it also does poorly in predicting the warm nose tends to be on the colder side.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Hrrr is certainly exciting but it also does poorly in predicting the warm nose tends to be on the colder side.

It’s not alone though everything but the nam and gfs which trended colder look like it 

[ag3]

Would like to see the Nam come in colder on its 0z run.

I think it will.

[nycsnow]

RAP is also starting a bit colder with the mixing line so ever south at hour 12 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol.

I've been finding today that adding 3 hours to his model start times is about right for here.  I still appreciate the posts.

[Juturna]

Should we assume snow will move in quicker than advertised? Feel like that's how it always goes. Trying to decide what time to set an alarm to watch the first flakes fly on the island.

[Stormlover74]

Pretty to look at before the nam crushes our dreams in 30 minutes 

[NJwx85]

The HRRR has a huge band of 1-2” per hour rates that approaches from the South at 17-18z and would persist for many hours.

[nycsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty to look at before the nam crushes our dreams in 30 minutes 

Who cares, Nam flip flops and is on its own. I do expect it to come in cooler though 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Juturna said:

Should we assume snow will move in quicker than advertised? Feel like that's how it always goes. Trying to decide what time to set an alarm to watch the first flakes fly on the island.

6am.

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

RAP would’ve been 12+ if it kept running 

[kat5hurricane]

I never found the HRRR or the RAP to be very accurate so it's just eye candy as far as I'm concerned but still nice to see nevertheless.

The NAM has been pretty steady in flooding the area with warm air at the mid levels so I don't see it backing down that much.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I never found the HRRR or the RAP to be very accurate so it's just eye candy as far as I'm concerned but still nice to see nevertheless.

The NAM has been pretty steady in flooding the area with warm air at the mid levels so I don't see it backing down that much.

The NAM cooled at 18z and has 0 support atm

[nycsnow]

The theme all day across the south and Midwest HRR has been better than the NAM it might mean absolutely nothing here but it’s good to look out for

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2015229987377328636?s=46

[SACRUS]

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[SACRUS]

[WeatherGeek2025]

Nam is the worst model, for this timeframe you use hrrr and rap

[nycsnow]

Fv3