EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: still very bullish I have noticed that they tend to air on the side of caution and lean towards the worst case. Better to prepare people for the worst and bust high than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro AI is more snow than 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference, here's the map though 1/26 0z. Typically, if one reduces the amounts by a category at this lead time, it's estimate is pretty good. As snow will continue to fall in parts of the Hudson Valley after 0z, it's current listing of 12"-15" there is reasonable. I think there will be some 18" amounts there. That has me in the 12-15 range along with north shore of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I'll be watching obs from VA late tonight with interest. The NAM/RRFS bring sleet rapidly through S and C VA overnight while the colder models (RGEM/HRRR/RAP) keep it snow. That should give us a good heads up regarding how quickly we are likely to mix or change over on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, North and West said: Checking in at halftime of my older son’s game; what is the storm actually doing at this moment versus what the models have shown? Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I was living in Washington, DC at the time and don't recall that storm. You might be referring to January 26, 1994, but I'm not completely sure. Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 - Storm Summary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Pretty much mostly snow just like Ukie.. makes ya wonder. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Euro AI is more snow than 6z Well-it either scores a coup here or falls flat on its face. It’s supposed to build better results with experience-not sure how much it has with setups like these. It did pretty well with the Dec storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 - Storm Summary So, it wasn't that storm. I am not sure what storm was involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Well-it either scores a coup here or falls flat on its face. It’s supposed to build better results with experience-not sure how much it has with setups like these. It did pretty well with the Dec storms. It’s in the camp of the hi res (minus nam) and Ukie for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: So, it wasn't that storm. I am not sure what storm was involved. I am not even sure what you guys were discussing since there are so many people posting all at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 12z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 - Storm Summary It may have been 93. I was pushing karts at a supermarket called stew Leonards and was absolutely frozen in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, North and West said: Checking in at halftime of my older son’s game; what is the storm actually doing at this moment versus what the models have shown? Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen. . people have posted that THE NAM had Little Rock getting nada when in reality they already have 6 inches,,,,,,now back to the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Updated Upton map. Should use the more accurate version of there forecast then pinpoint amounts. This looks like a good snow forecast map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I have noticed that they tend to air on the side of caution and lean towards the worst case. Better to prepare people for the worst and bust high than the other way around. True I realize most peoples worst case scenario is the opposite of this forums worst case scenario. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Should use the more accurate version of there forecast then pinpoint amounts. This looks like a good snow forecast map. Still means they are going for 12 in CPK, but yeah for surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I am not even sure what you guys were discussing since there are so many people posting all at once Here was the initial inquiry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I don't get why they put the highest amounts on their pinpoint To amp people up lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Well-it either scores a coup here or falls flat on its face. It’s supposed to build better results with experience-not sure how much it has with setups like these. It did pretty well with the Dec storms. so question from a lurker. What is the difference between how the AI models adapt over time versus established? is it more pattern recognition versus manual calibration?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Bernie Rayno with a nice explanation on things https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2015106637212659787?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2015106637212659787|twgr^c7b51d61c8a3e5047944a1f086a006052f31bce0|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Furl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FAccuRayno%2Fstatus%2F2015106637212659787 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, North and West said: Checking in at halftime of my older son’s game; what is the storm actually doing at this moment versus what the models have shown? Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen. . I will try this again,,,,,,people posting that THE NAM had Little Rock getting nothing a=nd right now Little Rock has 6 inches,,,,now back to the kids game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I don't get why they put the highest amounts on their pinpoint Range versus pinpoint #s i like because it gives a better idea if the variables in the forecast where mix leads to lower end but more snow means higher end. I believe that's the expected # for select locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It may have been 93. I was pushing karts at a supermarket called stew Leonards and was absolutely frozen in the morning. look through this and let us know Ray's Winter Storm Archive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, nycsnow said: I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 snow by 6 - 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, NYER72 said: so question from a lurker. What is the difference between how the AI models adapt over time versus established? is it more pattern recognition versus manual calibration?? I’m not sure of the exact algorithm but it’s supposed to print out predictions based on analysis of similar storms in the past and gain experience and therefore better predictions in the future based on verifications. I’m sure it would evaluate similar patterns at 500mb, analogs etc to come up with the predictions. I’m not sure how it directly evaluates current atmospheric conditions to come up with the predictions but it seems to match up pretty well with the operational EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I will try this again,,,,,,people posting that THE NAM had Little Rock getting nothing a=nd right now Little Rock has 6 inches,,,,now back to the kids game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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