eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGEM still looks really good with a huge front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 gm guys i fell asleep, i see gfs was good at 0z but not 6z euro and cmc looked pretty cold at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: RGEM still looks really good with a huge front end thump. The 10:1 and kuch snow maps are the same number, little weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: HRRR is probably too cold at this range and will come into line with other guidance. I'd love for it to verify too but it's still a little outside of where I'd use it. GFS was always going to cave. NAM getting a little better is somewhat encouraging although losing the GFS to this degree is a little concerning. It's going to sleet a decent amount into the city with this, we just have to hope the heavy snow rates can hold it back as long as possible. SWFEs will just try to screw us over in any way they can and gain the last possible inch north. This is the exact storm type where Boston will get buried. hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: The 10:1 and kuch snow maps are the same number, little weird lol I don't use kuchera maps, 10-1 when in doubt. We could manage a little better than 10:1 since we're starting so cold but ratios will lower as the mid levels warm up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right. HRRR is being retired when the RRFS goes live. The goal is to unify and improve upon models like HRRR, HREF, and NAM with a single, advanced system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure. The storm is scheduled to start around 5 am, I believe. Definitely almost 23 hours. I guess it depends on where you live, but we're definitely around 24 hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 degrees in New City Rockland County right now. That said what indications will there be about how far North the midlevels will be warming without now casting and live reports is there anything else to look at ? As far as the radar and the position of the 2 lows right now at this moment which model appears to of had depicted what is taking place right now accurately = has there been any one model that has done a good job at predicting what things would be looking like along the coast right now as far as the the path and location of these 2 lows ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol Yeah.... much as I would love that it's not going to happen. I think something like the RGEM is the high end for this. I'm not sure if these maps show sleet as snow so the 10-1 snow maps that are lame in general for us, you can probably add up to 2" of sleet on top so if it shows 6" for you, sleet could end up with 8" total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah.... much as I would love that it's not going to happen. I think something like the RGEM is the high end for this. I'm not sure if these maps show sleet as snow so the 10-1 snow maps that are lame in general for us, you can probably add up to 2" of sleet on top so if it shows 6" for you, sleet could end up with 8" total. Really all depends on how fast the transition happens. If models are to fast even by a couple hours nyc Long Island can achieve 10-12 I have to imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: How do we get the RAP to verify? Lol where can i find this models radar composite? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: where can i find this models radar composite? Best I got, I love tropical tidbits feature but don’t think rap is on there https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012406&fh=2&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Down to 9 at the Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Best I got, I love tropical tidbits feature but don’t think rap is on there https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012406&fh=2&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= it was there rap 09z run looks cold!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Down to 9 at the Park Thankfully the wind isn't bad. Otherwise, this would be a lot less tolerable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 degrees out this way. Sacrus posted the temp map in the other thread; the extent of this airmass is incredible. I think it will factor in our favor; time will tell. Weenie away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 What a sweet looking storm for the ALB area. Looking like 24-30 hours of snow up that way. 1"+ liquid, no mixing, great ratios. Those types of long duration, all-snow, big QPF events don't happen very often. Should be a great event for the HV too, but the wraparound shuts off a little quicker than further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6z euro looks like it held serve Hrdps has a crazy thump. Could be 8 or 9 in spots with ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 06 SREF QPF Snow NAM Snow REGM Snow GFS Snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Lol Gfs is now the lowest in terms of snowfall in some spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NWS is steadfast for my area, and remains forecasting 12-18". Currently +0.8F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: NWS is steadfast for my area, and remains forecasting 12-18". Currently +0.8F Yeah you'll do great even if you mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 News 12 NJ total map will remain unchanged this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East of the Parkway Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: News 12 NJ total map will remain unchanged this morning. That 3-6 line likely edges it's way up costal Monmouth East of Rt 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Doubt it means much for us but sounds like snow is underperfroming in ok and KS. But they're getting a 2nd round tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+ It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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