Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: On the road and can’t check anything on eps and ai ensembles? Does it show mixing like operational? No they're much colder 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, psv88 said: Take a breath bud. We all know the risks. No need to be a negative Nelly in this setup. If you want to panic about what can go wrong maybe write it down in a journal I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party. 7 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party. What? There are no concerns. We are getting a nice storm. Be positive not negative 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Good God, calm down people... everyone needs to take a 15 mintue break from here..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ? Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12. I think 8-12 is the right call right now. Although it can be alot more if everything goes right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, eduggs said: I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party. Who is concerned about a foot of snow ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ? Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary i had just started a new job in a school and we were out two days and the only thing that happened was some light sleet..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T4NK Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Everyone right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who is concerned about a foot of snow ? Careful locking in a foot Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Anyone remember our high expectations several days out with this storm ? We were talking about this one on the forum previous to this one - think it was called Eastern Weather ? Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary there have been a few of these....jan 2015 and march 2017 come to mind.....and the infamous heavy snow warning of 2008 iirc...as for the valentine's 2007 sleet fest, that was warned about early on as that warm nose was well modeled before hand, i remember craig allen talking about it, and it was in one of those winters where it just did not want to snow here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not sure why everyone is on eduggs' case. He's not saying we won't have a big storm. He's giving concrete reasons why there are concerns that the storm MIGHT not meet high end expectations. That's doesn't seem especially controversial. Even his statement that at four days, the low end up possibility is 0" shouldn't be especially controversial. It's unlikely, but we've seen it happen before. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, eduggs said: Careful locking in a foot Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm? Agreed and I wouldn't commit to any accumulation amount right now until all the players are on the field and moving - at first I thought we would have high ratio's but now that is in doubt also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I actually really like that one! Cracks me up every time I tried to find the “he’s out of line, but he’s right” for your trepidation. I hope you’re wrong, but I get it!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ok this is getting weird....Just some weenies throwing around weenies. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not sure why everyone is on eduggs' case. He's not saying we won't have a big storm. He's giving concrete reasons why there are concerns that the storm MIGHT not meet high end expectations. That's doesn't seem especially controversial. Even his statement that at four days, the low end up possibility is 0" shouldn't be especially controversial. It's unlikely, but we've seen it happen before.Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot? Anywhere on Long Island or a specific spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Anywhere on Long Island or a specific spot? Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12z euroBeen posted like 20x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: Careful locking in a foot Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm? I'd be relatively ok with it but yes many would flip out if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: GFS and Euro are at odds right now because the precip on the GFS only arrives area wide 3 -6 hours before mixing is very close on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, Prue11 said: What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot? if it's GFS wins this one for sure 12-24 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Been posted like 20x . Maybe some people don’t wanna scroll back 5-6 pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd go 6-10 or 8-12 I am still sticking with my 0"- 100" forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely It seems like an ok bet right now but it's still too far out to give numbers. The odds of a 6+ plus storm are relatively high subforum wide. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP. . That would be a fair criticism if he was telling us what he thought was most likely to happen. But that's not what he posted about...he posted about the possibility of how the storm could underperform...so it makes sense that he'd cite the models that give us reason for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Central suffolk. If history proves it seems pretty likely I wouldn't call that very likely. Very likely you changed to sleet at some point I give better odds of that. Probability of over a foot in central Suffolk? 22.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, Prue11 said: What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot? look at this map it shows 850's below freezing that shows snow all around south of long island and nyc could be sleet but nyc and north is all snow on the euro. its a great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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