Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

90% of the time when the gfs is alone its wrong. If euro follows then we can be concerned. Or course models often lose the storm in this range anyway even the good ones

The models likely won't lose this storm since it's coming across the country from the west, not a developing coastal offshore. 

 

The storm could miss us to the south but very unlikely the storm just disappears entirely. 

[MJO812]

Ukie snows from Sunday to Tuesday just like Euro and CMC.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So far for 12z

HITS:

ICON

CMC

UKMET

 

MISS:

GFS

AIGFS

Updated.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie snows from Sunday to Tuesday just like Euro and CMC.

so its holding steady close to yesterdays solution thats what we want to see in a model

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

GFS shows a very real fail mode. HP sitting right on top of the northeast. Will need significant changes in order to bring significant snow up here. 

I'd like to hear what you consider significant considering the high ratio potential with this storm this far north

[SACRUS]

 

Still more coming total (QPF)

 

[BoulderWX]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie snows from Sunday to Tuesday just like Euro and CMC.

The thing im most excited about in terms of potential is the duration. I expect a lot of changes between now and Sunday, but if we could have it snow for even half of that time, I'd be happy - don't even care how much we get if we have snow falling for that long

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Still more coming total (QPF)

 

15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro

[SACRUS]

 

GEFS total QPF - Mean  

 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

can’t even imagine what the nam is going to show when it gets in range 

[SACRUS]

43 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

12Z QPF Totals (NYC)

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: Trace
GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8
GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6
UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00
Euro AI AIFS:
Euro:
GEPS:
EPS:

 

Updated scoring

[MJO812]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Eric Webb says there's no north trend coming, says any north trend is just wishcasting 

Good for him

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

15:1 ratio = a foot or more of snow in most of the metro

Yep over a foot

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

GEFS total QPF - Mean  

 

I am hoping the euro ai gives us a big solution in the next hour. I think that model may be the best model right now

[Jt17]

Eric Webb says there's no north trend coming, says any north trend is just wishcasting 

Doesn't need to trend (which of course it could) with most modeling shows 10-15 inches of high ratio snow. Besides the OP GFS you must absolutely hug to keep your schtick up.


.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

GEFS total QPF - Mean  

 

once again use the 15:1 ratio which is easily reached with such cold temps over 8 or 9  inches in most areas

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Eric Webb says there's no north trend coming, says any north trend is just wishcasting 

You mean the guy who had winter canceled by Christmas?

[NJwx85]

Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging 

[Yanksfan]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging 

Remember back in the day whenever the EURO showed a big storm 5 days out you can lock it in. Ah good times.

[TriPol]

This is a very encouraging sign.

[Jt17]

Remember back in the day whenever the EURO showed a big storm 5 days out you can lock it in. Ah good times.

Let me introduce you to a concept called rosy retrospection.


.

[eduggs]

Good signs:

- Relatively stable solutions run-to-run on the UKMET and CMC.
- 12z ICON adjusted towards the ECM/UK/CMC solution
- Storm evolution has trended towards a longer duration event in recent cycles
- EPS, EPS-ICON, GEPS have trended north with QPF in recent cycles

Not great signs:

- The AIGFS has moved away from a big storm idea over the past few days
- 12z GFS reversed a multi-cycle positive trend with a sudden shift towards wave-interference
- EPS, GEPS still relatively dry (though that's typical considering ensemble spread at this lead time)

[jm1220]

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution. 

[eduggs]

Get the arc of significant overrunning to OH and PA inside 84 hours on the CMC, AIGFS, and EPS-AI, and I'll be a believer in a big event. Until then I'm on guard for wave interference and a non-ejecting ULL.

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution. 

It clearly will miss, missing us 

[eduggs]

Most of the area is over 0.75" liquid on the CMC. ELI and parts of SWCT are over 1". It's much "wetter" than the GEFS mean. 

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Get the arc of significant overrunning to OH and PA inside 84 hours on the CMC, AIGFS, and EPS-AI, and I'll be a believer in a big event. Until then I'm on guard for wave interference and a non-ejecting ULL.

Either the overrunning needs to come to our latitude (most promising scenario) or the coastal turns NE instead of E or ENE but the latter is always very hit or miss. 

[TriPol]

Just now, eduggs said:

Most of the area is over 0.75" liquid on the CMC. ELI and parts of SWCT are over 1". It's much "wetter" than the GEFS mean. 

Really seems to be three components here:

How strong is the high pressure to the north and when does it move north?
How strong is the surface low to the south?

How do these two interact? Could we get in between them? If so, we could get some insane winds out of these and if enough snow falls, we could in fact get blizzard conditions.

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good for him

He's struggled this winter. He thought winter was essentially ending coming into January. He rejected the idea that the PNA- regime from December would be replaced by a PNA+ regime, which has now occurred. No one has a crystal ball. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Euro rolling