1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Tucker1027]

 

Local 3 in Chattanooga BAMS 

[tnweathernut]

One big takeaway I see on the 18z NAM is the delay of the precipitation onset.  Just three runs ago at 7AM EST Saturday, precipitation was streaking into east TN, sw VA, and western NC.  This made sense to me from an overrunning perspective, usually faster return flow and further north than modeled.  Current run has precip barely making it into central Arkansas by 12z Saturday.  What's a 700 mile difference between friends?  lol

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z NAM is colder as well.  If you switch to run-2-run for temp changes...you can see the cold actually rotate down in front of the high and into the front side of the incoming storm.  Starts about hour 36.  You can see it warmup over the top of the storm as in rolls across the US.

[Coach B]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z NAM is colder as well.  If you switch to run-2-run for temp changes...you can see the cold actually rotate down in front of the high and into the front side of the incoming storm.  Starts about hour 36.  You can see it warmup over the top of the storm as in rolls across the US.

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Coach B said:

 

Thanks, Coach.   When you loop that exact map, you can see the cold just hitting the west side of the Apps and draining into our area.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

One big takeaway I see on the 18z NAM is the delay of the precipitation onset.  Just three runs ago at 7AM EST Saturday, precipitation was streaking into east TN, sw VA, and western NC.  This made sense to me from an overrunning perspective, usually faster return flow and further north than modeled.  Current run has precip barely making it into central Arkansas by 12z Saturday.  What's a 700 mile difference between friends?  lol

I am glad to know that when I travel by air from the West Coast, it isn't just me who gets delayed.  Haha.  Funny...not funny!

[*Flash*]

39 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

 - This is 12z

Sorry. Had the 12z, then uploaded the wrong image. Still wonder if the NW trend is nearing its asymptote.

[John1122]

The ICON was a little wild. I assume it's downsloping very hard and pushing warm air across the entire eastern valley and up against the Plateau. Because it doesn't make sense being on the NW side of a LP and seeing it push warm air into the area.

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ICON was a little wild. I assume it's downsloping very hard and pushing warm air across the entire eastern valley and up against the Plateau. Because it doesn't make sense being on the NW side of a LP and seeing it push warm air into the area.

Where's the 850 LP located? Sorry at work

[Vol4Life]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

Icon looked like gfs ice and snow LP in mobile

Can’t see the model right now…was it an improvement over 12z?

[TellicoWx]

The 850 LP is what's wrecking thermals the most..surface LP is only a smaller pct of problem

[Mrwolf1972]

[Weatheriscool]

4 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Looks awfully like an ice storm over middle TN 

[Mrwolf1972]

LP jumps in one frame from gulf to east side of smokes. 

[Vol4Life]

18z GFS running…

[Mrwolf1972]

I still don't think we will actually know what it's gonna do until the flight gets samples. 

[ShawnEastTN]

I still don't think we will actually know what it's gonna do until the flight gets samples. 

Tomorrow morning onward that data is supposed to be ingested.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[GBOVolz]

lol… this is what makes mods hard to take serious.




.

[housemtnTN]

1 minute ago, GBOVolz said:

lol… this is what makes mods hard to take serious.




.

Is that just an empty void w/o precip??

[GBOVolz]

Is that just an empty void w/o precip??

Looks like it..




.

[Mrwolf1972]

Gfs is quicker then the euro at 12z

[Wurbus]

Ticked at county north of the mixed precip at the onset

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, housemtnTN said:

Is that just an empty void w/o precip??

Looks like the drought continues.

[Reb]

GFS looking more amped and slightly N of 12z

[Tucker1027]

Updated from Channel 3


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[Mrwolf1972]

Still looking 2 prong system looking snow freezing rain then cold again at 93.

[Mrwolf1972]

[fountainguy97]

The GFS is much improved at 500mb. BUT that gives some areas the most catastrophic ice setup we have seen yet.

 

Literally freezing rain for 48 hours straight for some areas.

[Carvers Gap]

Weaker hp in the 18z GFS.  Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?

[Reb]

OK GFS...i see you. the 2nd prong has trended south considerably.