January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[WxUSAF]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.

At H5 I think it was a step back. It phases in some northern stream energy but then leaves it all behind. 6z phased it all together. Good to see even in that scenario we get a great storm. But 6z was definitely better aloft.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

With no context is that good? What’s the differences? 

[stormtracker]

Precip panels should be about to accelerate in a sec.   I'm on a fucking windows machine and not my mac, so I won't be able to post screenshots fast enough...unless I just do like a 1950's boomer on facebook and just take a pic of the monitor and post it here.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

With no context is that good? What’s the differences? 

Just showing you what it says so you can use it to compare to whatever you want....but i'll do commentary also...just trying to get it to yall fast

[Wetbulbs88]

26 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.

This is by far my favorite storm given the setup and last-minute forecast. 

[jayyy]

Precip panels should be about to accelerate in a sec.   I'm on a fucking windows machine and not my mac, so I won't be able to post screenshots fast enough...unless I just do like a 1950's boomer on facebook and just take a pic of the monitor and post it here.

Throw that pc out. We have a MECS+ to track

[stormtracker]

So it is in line with todays trends of holding the baja sw back a bit compared to it's 6z run.  Don't know how it looks compared to anything 12z

[mappy]

Reel in the banter during Randy’s pbp please 

[stormtracker]

Sorry TSSN,...you'll take this raw output and like it...no context and all

[stormtracker]

114, heaviest to our south and west...starting to march ENE

[bncho]

OK sorry to interlude but even tho the S/W is more west and closed it phases better than 0z and 6z

[MillvilleWx]

34 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

When will everything be in scope (on the field)? Thursday? 

Yes, Thursday will be everything coming into the NA RAOB network. However, we are putting recon schedules out to sample the area in the Pacific that will play an importance with the digging energy in the coming days. We will have plenty of sampling going on. N/S is probably the area to keep close eye on, although that seems to be well documented on guidance right now. 

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

It's good

[stormtracker]

sorry for being brief...trying to get yall visuals

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Precip before midnight Sunday. My eye was starting to twitch with this thing slowing down 6 hours every 6 hours.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's good

It’s it good? Or is it guys or folks worthy?

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

SE ridge more pronounced on 12z... should be less suppressed

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s it good? Or is it guys or folks worthy?

Without qpf shit and maps that sv robbed me of, i can't rightly tell.  That's why I didn't characterize it

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s it good? Or is it guys or folks worthy?

Definitely not folks, seems ok. Maybe I’m wrong but a step back. 

[NorthArlington101]

Precip before midnight Sunday. My eye was starting to twitch with this thing slowing down 6 hours every 6 hours.

Looks like about a dead-on midnight start. WxBell maps almost at the money.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Thermals creeping N on this run and need to see if they crash after Hr129

[stormtracker]

Fuck it. I’ll be a boomer today. 

[clskinsfan]

It keeps expanding the precip field with every run. Central VA still the place to be for the jack imo. 

[Terpeast]

Qpf about the same actually

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Fuck it. I’ll be a boomer today. 

Looks better than 0z

[stormtracker]

That's fucking awful   those pics I mean.   Geez.   The things I do for you folks

[Winter Wizard]

TPV looks east and the northern piece looks stronger. Both good for increasing the ceiling and northward extent of the precip. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Fuck it. I’ll be a boomer today. 

Looks like a long duration event per these maps. Looks good to me but unsure how it compares to previous run