January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[mitchnick]

Icon looking like 0z GGEM

[LP08]

ICON trying to full phase.  126 SLP off the coast. Mix getting close to Richmond

[stormtracker]

ICON has the low redeveloping on the NC coast?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Nomz said:

Icon printing just a ton of freezing rain down south

ICON is a legitimate disaster for ice and sleet accumulations across the Carolinas and deep south. Wow. 

[yoda]

14 degrees at DCA at 126 lol

[T. August]

ICON is a beating. 1”+ of liquid for dc

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON has the low redeveloping on the NC coast?

Euro has started to advertise some weak coastal trying to pop in the past couple of runs. Something to keep and eye on.

[stormtracker]

Yup...all snow here coastal takes over

[yoda]

Gimme gimme 

 

[Nomz]

H132 on the 12z ICON is just a nuke

[winter_warlock]

53 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How bout we get it to snow first, worry about winds later. 

Yeah I was just curious  that's all

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON Blizzard

[LP08]

Just let the Southern SW escape a bit NE.  Full phase might get it slow down and tuck in.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Gimme

 

 That's nearly perfect!

[JakkelWx]

ICON: snow starts around 6 AM or so Sunday morning, if not a little later.

[GreyHat]

23 minutes ago, Disc said:

13z NBM Probabilities of 48hr snowfall exceeding 12"

Washington: 66%

Baltimore: 59%

Hagerstown: 50%

Fredericksburg: 70%

Winchester 58%

Charlottesville: 75%

Leesburg: 58%

Richmond: 75%

Roanoke: 70%

Lynchburg: 75%

Norfolk: 52%

Can you provide a Magnolia Delaware or Dover? Thanks in advance. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON Blizzard

Coastal low is there but doesn't strengthen quick enough to bring true blizzard conditions. Would be worried about a warm nose on Delmarva possible flipping things to sleet as we close.

[Nomz]

ICON is done with us at about 6am monday. Here's the kuchera map

[mitchnick]

Icon trough not as strong or neutral as 6z Euro, so it doesn't prolong precip like Euro would...give it time and it will change.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Coastal low is there but doesn't strengthen quick enough to bring true blizzard conditions. Would be worried about a warm nose on Delmarva possible flipping things to sleet as we close.

Yeah but it's close enough for me at this range!  Breezy and 15 inches of snow is almost as close to a blizzard as we get around here.

[yoda]

Just now, Nomz said:

ICON is done with us at about 6am monday. Here's the kuchera map

Zoomed in

 

[T. August]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Coastal low is there but doesn't strengthen quick enough to bring true blizzard conditions. Would be worried about a warm nose on Delmarva possible flipping things to sleet as we close.

Am I the only one who doesn’t want wind? I want that shit falling straight down. Stack ‘em up tall.

[JakkelWx]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Can you provide a Magnolia Delaware or Dover? Thanks in advance. 

We'll get snow, don't worry. Also, it's generally frowned upon to ask about your own location in storm threads, but asking about a broader region is fine

[LP08]

Don't think I have ever seen the ICON print that much snow.  12-17 EZF north.  6-10 in Rich with some mixing

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, yoda said:

Zoomed in

 

I-95 max amounts special?

We need this one, people. 

[caviman2201]

Just now, T. August said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t want wind? I want that shit falling straight down. Stack ‘em up tall.

People want to be able to call it a blizzard without being corrected... and also they want to see those red bliz warnings

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon trough not as strong or neutral as 6z Euro, so it doesn't prolong precip like Euro would...give it time and it will change.

Seeing how 18z was a miss and 0z was barely a hit ya it’s trending. 

[paulythegun]

for illustrative purposes, here a sounding for DCA Monday 00z showing that warm(er) nose up at 700 producing a mix of sleet/snow (or at least lower ratio snow)

[high risk]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still in testing. It runs several hrs after the NBM 4.3, so that will bump up with the next run, don’t worry. It also is biased low on these kinds of setups. This is what the testing is for! We have lots of comparison analysis and notes for developers that will be sorted out after the winter season. 

        Not fully true.    While the time it starts doesn't match the operational, the actual cycles of the parallel use inputs from the same model cycles as the ops.    Worth noting that the ops does not include any Canadian inputs in the winter suite, while the parallel uses several.  And a reminder for everyone:  both the ops and para winter products only update at 01/07/13/19z.   

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Am I the only one who doesn’t want wind? I want that shit falling straight down. Stack ‘em up tall.

Yeah no thanks to the wind. With the way BGE has been around my neighborhood this year, a slight breeze knocks the power out.