January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[clskinsfan]

This cold after the storm is legit. Bottom of the driveway glaciers incoming. No matter how much falls. 

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Can’t see how this run is not an improvement 

GFS: "Hold my beer"

[LordBaltimore]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm like 90% sure that the RGEM 10km is a higher res version of the CMC—exact same output otherwise

The names people call models in casual discussion is sort of confusing. The CMC is the GEM model, run by the CMC (met center). Hence RGEM is regional GEM. Similarly the ECMWF isn't really the ECMWF, it's the IFS run by the ECMWF AKA the Euro Center for medium range weather forecasting

[SnowenOutThere]

The GFS has begun running. May the odds be ever in our favor

[Nomz]

We turn our eyes to the Goofy Forecasting System

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

The GFS has begun running. May the odds be ever in our favor

Haven’t you heard? The names people call models is confusing. It’s not the GFS, it’s the United States Global Forecasting System For Predicting Weather 

[Ji]

Weird. The usual models that honk snow the most…gfs and sphire are big no

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Haven’t you heard? The names people call models is confusing. It’s not the GFS, it’s the United States Global Forecasting System For Predicting Weather 

So it's the USGFSPW instead of the GFS 

[bncho]

USGFSPW needs to trend north. What a stubborn model. Why can't it ever show something like the IF-ECMWF???

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

We turn our eyes to the Goofy Forecasting System

Otherwise known as the GooFus. Otherwise know as the GFS. Otherwise known as the American weather model that mostly sucks until it shows something that we like. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Weird. The usual models that honk snow the most…gfs and sphire are big no

 The Spire?? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Spire isn't exactly known for its accuracy 

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 The Spire?? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Spire isn't exactly known for its accuracy 

He also posted a 12z run so who cares. More Ji panhandling. 

[winter_warlock]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This cold after the storm is legit. Bottom of the driveway glaciers incoming. No matter how much falls. 

That's some serious cold!! Single digits down to North Carolina!!!

[stormtracker]

GFS almost identical so far...early tho

[Terpeast]

Very early but the sw off CA is trending less closed. We’ll see how that goes

[LordBaltimore]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Haven’t you heard? The names people call models is confusing. It’s not the GFS, it’s the United States Global Forecasting System For Predicting Weather 

It's the NCEP. Stands for Never CorrEctly Predicting

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS almost identical so far...early tho

It’s only fitting the guy with the mlk avatar brings one in our direction on mlk day…

[psuhoffman]

If the GFS came out after the Euro/ggem/UK we wouldn’t even pay attention to it 

[Terpeast]

Hr 60, TPV a bit weaker

[TSSN+]

Little less southern on the sw and little more energy coming down from nw pacific so far. 

[stormtracker]

Compared with it's own run, GFS is about the same...RGEM/ICON were a bit east at this time

[Ji]

If the GFS came out after the Euro/ggem/UK we wouldn’t even pay attention to it 

It’s like the kid having the house to himself and then the dad arrives at 1230 to tell him no

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Compared with it's own run, GFS is about the same...RGEM/ICON were a bit east at this time

Im def seeing differences 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Im def seeing differences 

More energy coming from the back, could open this thing up

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Im def seeing differences 

There are some slight diff.  I guess I'm looking more in terms of that wave coming out and also comparing to the ICON/RGEM positionI

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

More energy coming from the back, could open this thing up

Yup 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

More energy coming from the back, could open this thing up

But yeah, at 93, it is a bit more interaction and further inland...a bit

[mitchnick]

At 78hrs, heights are noticeably higher on the east coast.

[stormtracker]

ok, differences are a bit apparent at 99...s/w is a bit more easter

[Solution Man]

Right direction