January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[mitchnick]

Ai has a 2nd event centered again in s va and MD eastern shore.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Main change is that its a bit less intense but longer duration snowstorm. Has snow all the way back to Texas at the end of its run

We already have a general 4-8 otg by that time too. I also think that it would come up the coast some. 

 

Agreed, most of the forum would get 4-8” more after 144 it appears, looks solid to gain some lat after that frame. 

[NorthArlington101]

Storm definitely somehow got pushed back a day today. Which annoys me. We were gonna be in NAM range by tonight at one point!

[DMAC98]

Looks like it's been slowing down the past few runs?

[stormtracker]

Not too mad at the Euro..looks like it'd def be over 6" if we made it past 144

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Storm definitely somehow got pushed back a day today. Which annoys me. We were gonna be in NAM range by tonight at one point!

We've lost almost 12 hours on it according to the Euro which only goes to make the forecast even further out in time 

[NorthArlington101]

Not too mad at the Euro..looks like it'd def be over 6" if we made it past 144

If you like weenie ratios we’ve hit it already.
Would be a nice storm.

[StormyClearweather]

With more to come. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Agreed, most of the forum would get 4-8” more after 144 it appears, looks solid to gain some lat after that frame. 

Also on that 18Z surface/precip plot there's a lot more snow (and precip) still coming in at 144h it appears, compared to 150h at 12Z when it's mostly done and moving out (and mind you, 12Z Euro was still quite good).

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

If you like weenie ratios we’ve hit it already.
Would be a nice storm.

 Hmm curious how many more  hours it snows after the 144 hr model cut off 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro has like 8+ inches in dc with the back edge still in Missouri.  Yes please. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro has like 8+ inches in dc with the back edge still in Missouri.  Yes please. 

 Would be a big storm for a lot of us!

[mitchnick]

Look what's coming in up top at 144hrs. That'll definitely enhance snowfall. I think with that High pressure puling off the NE coast driving in cold ocean air and that trough coming in, there will be a part 2 for us northern folks.

[clskinsfan]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

10:1

And that's 10:1. I can guarantee you with the temps being modelled we will do far better than that. It's a foot region wide most likely.

[stormtracker]

Imma go ahead and set my expectations to 6-10.  I'm sold

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Hmm curious how many more  hours it snows after the 144 hr model cut off 

For reference, here's the 12Z 150h ECMWF valid at the same time.  Notice how it's moving out by then but still left us in quite good shape.  I'd say 18Z looked better with what appears to be a decent bit yet to come after 6-8".

 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not too mad at the Euro..looks like it'd def be over 6" if we made it past 144

To my untrained eye, looks like  maybe about 12 hours of snowfall to get thru after the 144 hour cut off.  Unless I'm misjudging how far back precip is on the model at hr 144

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Imma go ahead and set my expectations to 6-10.  I'm sold

 Oh I'd definitely be happy with that!!!

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If you like weenie ratios we’ve hit it already.
Would be a nice storm.

Should be some more after that?

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong with its handling of the SW to get a big storm. 

I agree(you saw my post a couple pages back). 12z does actually eject significant energy from the SW, via a partial phase with the energy dropping south from the Pac NW. 18z doesnt, its flatter, but is slightly better with the silly snow maps. Ofc that's only part of the story- the timing/depth of NS energy associated with the TPV is another component.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Should be some more after that?

A good amount more I’d wager?

The slower storm start means we’re only about 12 hours closer to game time than we were yesterday. lol

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Imma go ahead and set my expectations to 6-10.  I'm 

I think it may be one of those situations where if you lose liquid further south you gain ratios as you go north due to very cold temperatures.  Less liquid but with the cold higher ratios more snow pure powder. 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

For reference, here's the 12Z 150h ECMWF valid at the same time.  Notice how it's moving out by then but still left us in quite good shape.  I'd say 18Z looked better with what appears to be a decent bit yet to come after 6-8".

 

  Looks like maybe another 8 hours or so to go depending on how fast or slow it's moving!!

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Should be some more after that?

Yes for sure. 

[stormtracker]

Let's just weenie out and only use Kuchera maps from here on out....until it shows less snow...then switch to 10:1

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.

7H FGEN ALWAYS comes into play for these setups. A secondary jack will occur on the northern fringe and that can actually be pretty prolific. That happened with a few storms in the past where people in Central PA were puking dendrites and got 1-2’ while we got hammered further south with the 85H FGEN and traditional deform. More than one way to score, and that stuff is a long way from getting resolved. I like what the ECMWF and AIFS are depicting. GFS improved too, just a bit different on evolution. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Let's just weenie out and only use Kuchera maps from here on out....until it shows less snow...then switch to 10:1

A red tagger earlier said 12:1 or so was reasonable, I think. 

check your texts

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Let's just weenie out and only use Kuchera maps from here on out....until it shows less snow...then switch to 10:1

Hell yeah!!!!   With the cold temps in teens we could be looking at 20:1 ratioss

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A good amount more I’d wager?

The slower storm start means we’re only about 12 hours closer to game time than we were yesterday. lol

Yeah its not done-

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Let's just weenie out and only use Kuchera maps from here on out....until it shows less snow...then switch to 10:1

 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

A red tagger earlier said 12:1 or so was reasonable, I think. 

check your texts

15,000ft deep DGZ! Pants tent.