January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[TSSN+]

Actually gefs is better at 18z just later. Think cause the other way to win must show up so it’s worse early but better late. 
 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Actually gefs is better at 18z just later. Think cause the other way to win must show up so it’s worse early but better late. 
 

Good catch. Like the op gfs, gefs is playing the tradeoff game

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest.

People have gotta stop being binary.  Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now.  For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped.

Exactly...thank you!  Obviously, our ideal would be to have every model on board for a huge event and never waver through game time when we get utterly hammered.  But people see several models at 12Z giving us near-historic to historic amounts, then some things at 18Z cut that with ensuing panic.  And now suddenly, say if we end up getting "only" a 4-8" event (that would be cold powder mind you!), it's cause for tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and cries of failure.  FFS!

[WxUSAF]

Maybe timing differences? Seems like things have slowed down a bit today

[caviman2201]

GFS is giving Athens, GA 15" of 10:1 snow... their biggest snowfall on record was about 60% of that... (8.7" in 1983). The GooFuS is doing GooFuS things

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe timing differences? Seems like things have slowed down a bit today

I'm kind of wondering that.  Or if it's almost like two distinct periods that add on to each other?  I believe the AIGFS showed two pulses?

[LeesburgWx]

I can’t wait for the cliff diving after the Ukie takes away our 30 inches. For real though, we still have time to reel this north. At some point though, GFS or Euro have to give. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

GFS is giving Athens, GA 15" of 10:1 snow... their biggest snowfall on record was about 60% of that... (8.7" in 1983). The GooFuS is doing GooFuS things

Perhaps...and I am in no way saying it's correct...But it was just last year that New Orleans and the Gulf Coast got like 8-12" snow which "never could happen in a million years!"

[clskinsfan]

GEFS snow depth mean looks solid to me. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GEFS snow depth mean looks solid to me. 

I’m gonna go with strong to very strong 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe timing differences? Seems like things have slowed down a bit today

On the GFS its mostly how much interaction/phasing occurs out west- more on the 12z while 18z pretty much misses, so ends up flatter/souther downstream with the precip. (see my post a page back) The 18z GEFS is closer to 12z wrt that interaction, but a tad later.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

GEFS snow depth mean looks solid to me. 

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!!  Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there.  And...that's snow DEPTH?  Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!!  Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there.  And...that's snow DEPTH?  Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

It's clipping data on this site because of Delaware and Chesapeake bays.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I can’t wait for the cliff diving after the Ukie takes away our 30 inches. For real though, we still have time to reel this north. At some point though, GFS or Euro have to give. 

Cliff diving after the drunk uncle tumbles would be hilarious. Its depiction is like my analogy of two field goal kicks colliding right in the middle from 50 yards out. It’s that hard especially in a nina winter. 

[caviman2201]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!!  Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there.  And...that's snow DEPTH?  Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

It always does that - just a resolution issue for the Bay

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!!  Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there.  And...that's snow DEPTH?  Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

I was about to say man that rectangle was straight-up disrespectful! Hahaha And yeah that is pretty solid overall.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's clipping data on this site because of Delaware and Chesapeake bays.

 

Just now, caviman2201 said:

It always does that - just a resolution issue for the Bay

That's what I thought.  I just found it a tad amusing!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Cliff diving after the drunk uncle tumbles would be hilarious. Its depiction is like my analogy of two field goal kicks colliding right in the middle from 50 yards out. It’s that hard especially in a nina winter. 

Whereas if we had this same Baja energy in a nino with cold air in place...we'd already be popping champagne wouldn't we?

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas if we had this same Baja energy in a nino...we'd already be popping champagne wouldn't we?

If it ejects while we have cold air, sure. But even that’s not a guarantee in an el nino winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

If it ejects while we have cold air, sure. But even that’s not a guarantee in an el nino winter. 

Yeah I just edited it to say that. Yeah that's what made 2016 so fun to track

[Terpeast]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I just edited it to say that. Yeah that's what made 2016 so fun to track

And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.

I am excited about a potential 4-8er.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If it ejects while we have cold air, sure. But even that’s not a guarantee in an el nino winter. 

Good point.  Also, yeah, it's a Nina right now but it's not like the models are suddenly going "OMG, it's a Nina, we better back way off on any snow amount that we're showing!"  I know, that's a bit snarky, but I find that a lot of people almost think that.  The thing is...this situation is showing up now regardless of the ENSO state and I don't think we can just sit here and say "oh, it failed [if it does] because Nina rather than Nino!"  I don't find that to be a binary thing really.  One can argue that this kind of setup would be more rare in a Nina or not as likely to happen, but it's not like if anything backs off that "it's due to the Nina!"

[Terpeast]

Just now, WVclimo said:

I am excited about a potential 4-8er.  

I’ll take it for sure. 

[300 square feet]

Being in the bullseye 5 days out is not necessarily a good place to be unless all the models agree, which they don’t in this case. Even 2 days out isn’t a lock. We all know this. 
 

I’m hoping for 4”+, which would be a huge win, but I’m expecting flurries with bitter cold to follow. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.

Sorry if this is too much banter in here, but damn, I still vividly remember for that 2016 storm sitting in a coffee shop on the Saturday before the event looking on my phone through this forum at the discussion.  The 12Z models were all coming in, and they ALL homed in on a major event.  Every.  Single.  One.  It was only a matter of how much and whether we might get some sleet perhaps, etc.  But they barely wavered through the next week through that storm.  I remember walking out of the coffee place just KNOWING we were in for a seriously major winter event and there was little doubt in my mind outside of the fine details.  That was a freaking fun time!

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.

I'm excited about a 4"-8" event.

[SnowenOutThere]

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong with its handling of the SW to get a big storm. 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm excited about a 4"-8" event.

Me too. And the potential for snow on snow if it turns out the way. A big snow during Vodka cold and then more snow. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong with its handling of the SW to get a big storm. 

We all want the big dog, but at least we have a back up if not.