Jan 18-25 Cold Wave

[beavis1729]

DLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brutally cold temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
multiple days below zero Thursday through Sunday. Low actual
temperatures in the negative 30s to 40F, and minimum wind chills in
the negative 30s to 50s. The coldest days will likely be Friday and
Saturday.

- A couple areas of light snow pass over the region this evening
through the day Wednesday. Accumulations of an inch or less are
expected.

- Light lake effect snow and clouds may persist along the South
  Shore through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Relative to the last couple days and the coming days, today and
tomorrow will be fairly "mild" (in a northern mid winter sense).
High temperatures above zero are expected this afternoon and
Wednesday - with some folks seeing afternoon temperatures in the
teens tomorrow! This temperature moderation is occurring thanks to
some WAA ahead of a couple passing upper level vort maxes spurring on
some weak surface clippers. These will pass through this evening
through Wednesday bringing a couple areas of light snow. The first
passes through this evening, mostly from Brainerd to Hayward. The
second should move across the area from northwest to southeast
through the day Wednesday with a little wrap around snow lingering
into Thursday morning. Total accumulations should be around an inch
or less across the region.

Behind the Wednesday clipper, a hefty cold air mass is expected to
drop into the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region
through the weekend with 850mb temperatures dropping into the -30s
Celsius. This is expected to result in several days of some very
cold surface temperatures beginning Wednesday evening through at
least Sunday midday, when temperatures are unlikely to rise much
above zero, if at all. The coldest days of this period are expected
to be Friday and Saturday. Thursday and Friday, brisk northwest
winds are expected which will lead to the coldest winds chills of
this period Thursday night into Friday morning. Wind chill values of
-40 to -50F are possible. The coldest actual air temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday morning when widespread
temperatures of -30 to -40F are forecast. There is a 5 to 10% chance
that some of the local coldest spots could drop to -50F actual
temperature on Saturday morning.

With these cold temperatures and high confidence in them occurring,
we`ve issued a plethora of cold weather headlines with this forecast
update. For Wednesday evening into Thursday morning/midday, we`ve
gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the area,
with an Extreme Cold Warning along the far north. The Borderlands
warning and the advisory along the Iron Range/North Shore continue
through the day on Thursday as any diurnal warming is expected to be
minimal. Thursday evening, the whole area falls into a Extreme Cold
Watch through midday Saturday. Sunday and Monday mornings will
likely feature more Cold Weather Advisories but shouldn`t be as
brutally cold as Friday/Saturday. Looking ahead to next week it
appears we`ll moderate slightly but still be below normal.

There are little to no chances of snow after tomorrow`s clipper,
outside of the South Shore possibly getting some on/off lake effect
with the northwest winds and cold temperatures. Global models show a
slight chance of snow returning mid next week as slightly warmer
temperatures allow moisture back into the area.

[Brian D]

^WICKED^

[CheeselandSkies]

21 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

No bugs at least

That wasp @A-L-E-K photographed better have skedaddled back to its hibernation hidey-hole.

[madwx]

If we’re gonna do it we might as well do it big. Hoping we can challenge some 2019/2014 levels here 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Gonna be some nice polar cold here for sure but we’d probably really bottom out if the snowpack was deeper. ~4” otg imby

[CheeselandSkies]

58 minutes ago, madwx said:

If we’re gonna do it we might as well do it big. Hoping we can challenge some 2019/2014 levels here 

As long as it doesn't last for 8 weeks straight.

[beavis1729]

47 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Gonna be some nice polar cold here for sure but we’d probably really bottom out if the snowpack was deeper. ~4” otg imby

Yeah, which is definitely unfortunate. The good news is there’s at least some snow cover, and there won’t be much modification of the airmass due to the upstream snowpack combined with the winds/advection. 

This will be one of those arctic outbreaks where the airmass is very impressive (which I define as -35C or colder at H85 somewhere in the lower 48), but the ground temps underperform relatively speaking. Still a decent arctic outbreak, but not what it could be. This is opposite of what occurred in January 2009, where the airmass wasn’t crazy cold but there were very low temps due to fresh deep snowpack and clear/calm conditions. 

Regardless, we may see the coldest temp here since January 2019.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

14 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, which is definitely unfortunate. The good news is there’s at least some snow cover, and there won’t be much modification of the airmass due to the upstream snowpack combined with the winds/advection. 

This will be one of those arctic outbreaks where the airmass is very impressive (which I define as -35C or colder at H85 somewhere in the lower 48), but the ground temps underperform relatively speaking. Still a decent arctic outbreak, but not what it could be. This is opposite of what occurred in January 2009, where the airmass wasn’t crazy cold but there were very low temps due to fresh deep snowpack and clear/calm conditions. 

Regardless, we may see the coldest temp here since January 2019.

Just under an inch of fresh snow today should help, although it’s blowing all around. Definitely expecting the coldest temps here since January 2019 when MSP had a daily hi/lo of -13/-28.
 

I’ll be satisfied if we can get to -20 this go around. Outlying areas should have little trouble achieving that.  

[michsnowfreak]

We always get lake modification here. But our forecast low Saturday of -10° would be the coldest since 2019.

Nice thick blanket of snow is in place.

 

[WestMichigan]

 

[nwohweather]

I’ll be impressed if we actually wind up hitting -8° here. Definitely a real winter for Toledo in 2025-2026

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[beavis1729]

11 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

 

I could see -17 or -18 in GRR if everything goes right. Deep cold airmass, healthy snow cover, and minimal moderation from LM.

So not quite the all-time record, but maybe the top 10 coldest on record? 

[WestMichigan]

17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I could see -17 or -18 in GRR if everything goes right. Deep cold airmass, healthy snow cover, and minimal moderation from LM.

So not quite the all-time record, but maybe the top 10 coldest on record? 

Yes, I am not thinking they will break the record but it will certainly get cold.  The Euro has backed down a little as of 0Z bue most models seem to be thinking -15°F to -18°F which would for sure set some records.  The morning AFD said at least one model gave a 40% chance of -20°F.

[Brian D]

-10's this morning across the area with some -20's up around the Ely/Cook area. They will rise some, before dropping steadily later today. TH arpt had -11 at 0615, then dropped 4dF to -15 at 0655 under calm winds. Typical 3-5dF drop I mentioned before that happens near sunrise under calm winds. 

[beavis1729]

Here it comes...Bottineau ND is already down to -22 with NW winds at 23 mph, WC -53.

It was -2 there at midnight, but will probably remain in the -20s for the rest of the day, even during peak heating. The ultimate "midnight high".

[A-L-E-K]

Cps canceled classes tomorrow 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Ground is white, going to be cold as fuck. I’ll take it for a weekend. 

[Brian D]

Temps have started falling around noon. 

[WestMichigan]

Several models predicting near or tying the all time record low of -24°F at GRR Saturday morning.  It will be interesting to see how cold it really gets.

HRRR

 

RAP

 

Euro

ICON