SE Crew - Cliff Diving

[AirNelson39]

Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

There needs to be a real discussion about the models and how bad they are even at gametime once this is over. And I dont mean just the board. 

 

[stormwatcherJ]

Weather forecasting has become an absolute joke. It’s 2026, and they often can’t even predict the low/high temperatures with any reasonable degree of accuracy. I’m not sure what has happened in the meteorological science field, but something is wayy off. 

[wncsnow]

Every winter storm the past 3 or 4 years has busted on tne dry side. 

[AirNelson39]

Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic.

[audioguy3107]

I think it’s awesome how it’s almost 50 degrees here NE of ATL with no precipitation anywhere in sight or on the horizon.  Unreal. 

[NCSU_Pi]

37 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic.

I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt...

[marsman]

My call: T of snow, 0.2" of sleet, 0.2" of ZR, and .5" of plain ol' rain with maybe a thunder overnight Sunday. 

[homerj]

Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting.  4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami.  And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all.  And this happens week after week, every single year.   

[gman]

Just now, homerj said:

Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting.  4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami.  And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all.  And this happens week after week, every single year.   

Imagine being upset that the models were wrong in your scenario. 

[ncstatered21]

I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt...

Probably make more free throws than Pitt at the very least


.

[homerj]

I think with hurricanes people would be justified to be upset.  From putting up shutters to evacuating, the preparations are costly and time consuming.  I wonder how much of the economic loss from a storm like this is simply due to business closures, school closures, and people just cancelling their plans.

Either the persistent biases in these models need to be corrected or better communication tools need to be developed.  Don't get me wrong, the local mets do good job of trying urge caution.  But most people simply look at their weather app, and it takes a few years of living in a place like Charlotte to realize that when a snowflake shows up in a forecast, it is a hallucination, a computer glitch.

[kvegas-wx]

After this non-storm I can safely say I have everything I need for the foreseeable future.  Next event, grocery store, gas and dog food, that's it.  If anything, this forced me to change the oil in the generators.  So there's that.  

[Grayman]

Agree with rest of you. You could see it early this morning on the radar returns. Clown show 

[NCSU_Pi]

If y'all think people on here are Cliff Diving, some people are so mad about the weather around here, the news showed them out protesting with signs in Durham.

"ABOLISH ICE NOW!"

"ICE OUT OF DURHAM"

"NO MORE ICE!"

[AirNelson39]

The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them.

[wncsnow]

Just now, AirNelson39 said:

The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them.

Same here. Doubt we have had more than .3 liquid equivalent. Dont think we come close to 1 inch of moisture 

[Upstate Turfie]

NWS of GSP doubled down on an additional 0.50” of freezing rain today for Greenville and Spartanburg. 
 

We will see

[BooneWX]

29 minutes ago, Upstate Turfie said:

NWS of GSP doubled down on an additional 0.50” of freezing rain today for Greenville and Spartanburg. 
 

We will see

Yep. We’re just getting started out west. Yall Triangle folks quit crashing out. You’ll at least be able to watch football tonight. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, AirNelson39 said:

The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them.

0.20” QPF maybe? 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ve seen model fails but this is next level. I’m not talking precip types, QPF. RAH had triangle 1.25-1.5” as of last night and I’ll be shocked if we get to 3/4” an inch. Had Mets telling us the dry slot wasn’t real and don’t believe it. Had folks on here silencing everyone who said QPF wasn’t going to be an issue and listen to forecast offices like sheep. Now I’m pissed, the cold for a sleet bomb was here. If we’d had anything close to what they called for, we’d have 2-3” of sleet right now. Instead we have a very light glaze of ice and 0.25-0.50” of sleet. Huge winter storm! Crash out complete enjoy the winter weather and power ya filthy animals 

[AirNelson39]

Yep. We’re just getting started out west. Yall Triangle folks quit crashing out. You’ll at least be able to watch football tonight. 

It’ll be far too heavy to reach those totals. This was a bust for everyone. The moisture wasn’t there like it was modeled for the past week. You can have a killer CAD but if you don’t have the moisture it’s all for nothing.

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ve seen model fails but this is next level. I’m not talking precip types, QPF. RAH had triangle 1.25-1.5” as of last night and I’ll be shocked if we get to 3/4” an inch. Had Mets telling us the dry slot wasn’t real and don’t believe it. Had folks on here silencing everyone who said QPF wasn’t going to be an issue and listen to forecast offices like sheep. Now I’m pissed, the cold for a sleet bomb was here. If we’d had anything close to what they called for, we’d have 2-3” of sleet right now. Instead we have a very light glaze of ice and 0.25-0.50” of sleet. Huge winter storm! Crash out complete enjoy the winter weather and power ya filthy animals 

It will be okay. There’s always tequila. 

[Upstate Turfie]

Almost looked like the sun was going to poke through a few minutes ago. 

[eolian]

Just now, Upstate Turfie said:

Almost looked like the sun was going to poke through a few minutes ago. 

I saw that.

we need the temp to start rising before that line gets here.

[suzook]

On 1/24/2026 at 11:15 AM, AirNelson39 said:

Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out.

Picked up inch and a half of rain so far. That back line is impressive.

[suzook]

On 1/24/2026 at 1:07 PM, homerj said:

Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting.  4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami.  And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all.  And this happens week after week, every single year.   

This was a tough event to forecast with the CAD. We all knew this could happen. Fortunately a lot of the predicted ice wasn't as bad as predicted. 

[NEGa]

After seeing the damage from the inch in Mississippi I am glad we didn’t end up getting g hit with that. While not “historic” imby it was still a pretty good winter storm and lasted quite a while.