AirNelson39 Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:25 PM There needs to be a real discussion about the models and how bad they are even at gametime once this is over. And I dont mean just the board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:29 PM Weather forecasting has become an absolute joke. It’s 2026, and they often can’t even predict the low/high temperatures with any reasonable degree of accuracy. I’m not sure what has happened in the meteorological science field, but something is wayy off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM Every winter storm the past 3 or 4 years has busted on tne dry side. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted yesterday at 05:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:10 PM I think it’s awesome how it’s almost 50 degrees here NE of ATL with no precipitation anywhere in sight or on the horizon. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 37 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic. I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago My call: T of snow, 0.2" of sleet, 0.2" of ZR, and .5" of plain ol' rain with maybe a thunder overnight Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homerj Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting. 4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami. And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all. And this happens week after week, every single year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Just now, homerj said: Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting. 4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami. And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all. And this happens week after week, every single year. Imagine being upset that the models were wrong in your scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt...Probably make more free throws than Pitt at the very least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homerj Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago I think with hurricanes people would be justified to be upset. From putting up shutters to evacuating, the preparations are costly and time consuming. I wonder how much of the economic loss from a storm like this is simply due to business closures, school closures, and people just cancelling their plans. Either the persistent biases in these models need to be corrected or better communication tools need to be developed. Don't get me wrong, the local mets do good job of trying urge caution. But most people simply look at their weather app, and it takes a few years of living in a place like Charlotte to realize that when a snowflake shows up in a forecast, it is a hallucination, a computer glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago After this non-storm I can safely say I have everything I need for the foreseeable future. Next event, grocery store, gas and dog food, that's it. If anything, this forced me to change the oil in the generators. So there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Agree with rest of you. You could see it early this morning on the radar returns. Clown show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago If y'all think people on here are Cliff Diving, some people are so mad about the weather around here, the news showed them out protesting with signs in Durham. "ABOLISH ICE NOW!" "ICE OUT OF DURHAM" "NO MORE ICE!" 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, AirNelson39 said: The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them. Same here. Doubt we have had more than .3 liquid equivalent. Dont think we come close to 1 inch of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Turfie Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NWS of GSP doubled down on an additional 0.50” of freezing rain today for Greenville and Spartanburg. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 29 minutes ago, Upstate Turfie said: NWS of GSP doubled down on an additional 0.50” of freezing rain today for Greenville and Spartanburg. We will see Yep. We’re just getting started out west. Yall Triangle folks quit crashing out. You’ll at least be able to watch football tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago 1 hour ago, AirNelson39 said: The NAM nailed this thing. Pitiful moisture here in the triangle. The globals were trash with totals. Hopefully all the folks that bought generators didn’t open them. 0.20” QPF maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago I’ve seen model fails but this is next level. I’m not talking precip types, QPF. RAH had triangle 1.25-1.5” as of last night and I’ll be shocked if we get to 3/4” an inch. Had Mets telling us the dry slot wasn’t real and don’t believe it. Had folks on here silencing everyone who said QPF wasn’t going to be an issue and listen to forecast offices like sheep. Now I’m pissed, the cold for a sleet bomb was here. If we’d had anything close to what they called for, we’d have 2-3” of sleet right now. Instead we have a very light glaze of ice and 0.25-0.50” of sleet. Huge winter storm! Crash out complete enjoy the winter weather and power ya filthy animals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago Yep. We’re just getting started out west. Yall Triangle folks quit crashing out. You’ll at least be able to watch football tonight. It’ll be far too heavy to reach those totals. This was a bust for everyone. The moisture wasn’t there like it was modeled for the past week. You can have a killer CAD but if you don’t have the moisture it’s all for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve seen model fails but this is next level. I’m not talking precip types, QPF. RAH had triangle 1.25-1.5” as of last night and I’ll be shocked if we get to 3/4” an inch. Had Mets telling us the dry slot wasn’t real and don’t believe it. Had folks on here silencing everyone who said QPF wasn’t going to be an issue and listen to forecast offices like sheep. Now I’m pissed, the cold for a sleet bomb was here. If we’d had anything close to what they called for, we’d have 2-3” of sleet right now. Instead we have a very light glaze of ice and 0.25-0.50” of sleet. Huge winter storm! Crash out complete enjoy the winter weather and power ya filthy animals It will be okay. There’s always tequila. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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