SE Crew - Cliff Diving

[AirNelson39]

Looks like this thing has went from 2” QPF on all models for 7 straight days to 0.2”. This has absolute bust written all over it. The long range models have proven to be pure trash until 12 hours out.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

There needs to be a real discussion about the models and how bad they are even at gametime once this is over. And I dont mean just the board. 

 

[stormwatcherJ]

Weather forecasting has become an absolute joke. It’s 2026, and they often can’t even predict the low/high temperatures with any reasonable degree of accuracy. I’m not sure what has happened in the meteorological science field, but something is wayy off. 

[wncsnow]

Every winter storm the past 3 or 4 years has busted on tne dry side. 

[AirNelson39]

Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic.

[audioguy3107]

I think it’s awesome how it’s almost 50 degrees here NE of ATL with no precipitation anywhere in sight or on the horizon.  Unreal. 

[NCSU_Pi]

37 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Going forward I’ll likely take a 1/4th of what’s shown on the models and expect that until we get within 24 hours of the NAM and take a blend of that. Just downright pathetic.

I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt...

[marsman]

My call: T of snow, 0.2" of sleet, 0.2" of ZR, and .5" of plain ol' rain with maybe a thunder overnight Sunday. 

[homerj]

Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting.  4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami.  And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all.  And this happens week after week, every single year.   

[gman]

Just now, homerj said:

Imagine this situation occurring with hurricane forecasting.  4 days out, the models show a Cat 5 storm with a direct hit on Miami.  And then it ends up being a tropical storm 500 miles away, or nothing at all.  And this happens week after week, every single year.   

Imagine being upset that the models were wrong in your scenario. 

[ncstatered21]

I wonder how the Euro or GFS would do on the road at Pitt...

Probably make more free throws than Pitt at the very least


.

[homerj]

I think with hurricanes people would be justified to be upset.  From putting up shutters to evacuating, the preparations are costly and time consuming.  I wonder how much of the economic loss from a storm like this is simply due to business closures, school closures, and people just cancelling their plans.

Either the persistent biases in these models need to be corrected or better communication tools need to be developed.  Don't get me wrong, the local mets do good job of trying urge caution.  But most people simply look at their weather app, and it takes a few years of living in a place like Charlotte to realize that when a snowflake shows up in a forecast, it is a hallucination, a computer glitch.