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January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm


Jimbo!
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2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Looking over GFS and Canadian for HKY area

GFS: Roughly 4-5 inches of snow 2-3" of IP and 1/4" of zr.

Canadian: 4-5" of IP and 1/2" of zr.

That is a typical type of storm from what I remember in the 1980s-1990s as a kid in Lenoir. Either way, those are EPIC sledding conditions. It will stay around for a week, too.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The Canadian is an absolute dumpster fire of epic proportions. I trust no part of that when it drives the primary that far north but then the thermals looks like the GFS lol.

Not really the meso area of our wedge will behave differently in this evolving situation than what is happening west of the apps.

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CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.

 

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Everything trending towards more ZR is just awful. I'd do anything to see it go back to all sleet or just keep going and get rain. But CMC may be at the ceiling of how far it could cut and it is still ZR... Add in the wind gusts and I'm getting scared. Not much in weather scares me but an ice storm of that magnitude definitely does. 

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1 minute ago, wake4est said:

After the glazing many will receive this weekend, those wind gusts in the wake of the storm are .... problematic. Yikes. 

This is my fear of where the problems will truly occur.  Wind picks up as this storm pumps on exit...After we have coated trees and power lines from the zr precip.  Sunday noon and after could just be one breakage and compiling catastrophe after another. 

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I’ve pretty much given up on getting major snow in the Triad, need the Canadian to go even further the north to miss the ice. The kids are gonna love the sledding. It’s going to be epic. But man, the power people, etc. Looks like it could be rough. For a lot of our state 

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20 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I'm really curious to see how things play out with whatever falls and our temps not really getting above freezing for days and days...

Most of that sledding will occur in vehicles...

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10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?

 

100%. I think this is setting up to be the sleet storm of the century in our neck of the woods.

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