January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Coach McGuirk]

I hate how NYC is now expecting a foot of snow.  We are lucky for an ice storm. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Is the NAM even worth considering anymore?? Not for just this storm but period.

 

This is terrible.

[BornAgain13]

The FV3 looks good for the initial thump!

[USCG RS]

NAM is usually good for mid levels and sometimes low level temps. Inside it's range. That's really all I see the NAM good for. 

[StantonParkHoya]

This is also mid January, when the sun can't help warm the blacktop as much, so 31/32 and rain has a much higher chance of truly being freezing rain than if this were mid to late Feb. 

Not sure I’d call the 25th of January mid January


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[wncsnow]

Nam looks about the exact same as 18Z honestly. Slightly less precipitation 

[sakau2007]

what do you guys think will happen in the smokey mountains and in places like boone? ordinarily, they squeeze out more snow but because of the warm layer, might the higher peaks be at or above freezing for most of the event, making it an odd situation where the smokey mountains are all rain while NE GA and upstate SC are icy?

[AppalachianWedge]

That was the first sun angle post.
Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post.


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That only comes up if it is robbing snow.

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[Brick Tamland]

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Not sure I’d call the 25th of January mid January


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Eh. That's fair. 

[RockyKnob]

2 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

what do you guys think will happen in the smokey mountains and in places like boone? ordinarily, they squeeze out more snow but because of the warm layer, might the higher peaks be at or above freezing for most of the event, making it an odd situation where the smokey mountains are all rain while NE GA and upstate SC are icy?

I’m not sure what  altitude the warm layer will occupy, but generally, for the reasons you mention, freezing rain is generally not a thing in the mountains. The high peaks in particular should be fine. Valleys like Boone can still have sone issues, but I can’t see prolonged freezing rain above 3,000 feet unless us down in the flatlands get mostly sleet. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Looking more like PD-2 in 2003. 

[fyredog28]

Just a fyi, if yall don't see me posting much, my shift on the Fire Dept works on Sunday but it looks like its gonna be bad so they may call us all in Saturday evening. May have to work 36 hrs straight... If I dont have time to post ill try to get on and scan the pages but I hope u all stay safe and keep your power on!

I drew the short straw and have Saturday. Be safe!


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[franklin NCwx]

11 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

what do you guys think will happen in the smokey mountains and in places like boone? ordinarily, they squeeze out more snow but because of the warm layer, might the higher peaks be at or above freezing for most of the event, making it an odd situation where the smokey mountains are all rain while NE GA and upstate SC are icy?

Ice to start then mostly rain

[sakau2007]

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Ice to start then mostly rain

what a bummer for the ski resorts. a chance to get several feet of good snow and they will get little to nothing? oof.

[Brick Tamland]

Hope the NAM is right if we can't get snow. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

0Z NAM showing a lot of sleet. If this verifies, ZR could be minimized to accrual levels that are far less damaging in central NC. We shall see.


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[Brick Tamland]

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

You’d have to be on drugs to draw that map 

[Brick Tamland]

3K NAM is also sleet.

[Snow dog]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

As an upstate resident, I’d love for that to verify.  Lights stay on most likely!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NAM: This is a snowstorm for Ontario 

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Map makes absolutely no sense 

[Thrasher Fan]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

You’d have to be on drugs to draw that map 

NAM'd

[DC2Winston]

The FV3 looks good for the initial thump!

Southern extent of 1-3 inch “thump”? Triad? Or North


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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

That map depicts a sleet fest and a relative lull in precipitation in central NC. It’s higher north due to more precipitation falling during that lull after warm nose. East is higher due to more ZR than sleet. It’s plausible but anything is at this point except significant snow in the Triangle (this time).


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[franklin NCwx]

4 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

Southern extent of 1-3 inch “thump”? Triad? Or North


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Pittsburgh 

[AppalachianWedge]

Eh. That's fair. 

We can call it late-mid January.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[DTP]

1 hour ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Curious what you guys think. Can sleet accumulate to cause tree damage or power outages? I have never experienced a sleet storm that has stuck to anything other than the ground.

Not to my knowledge- spheres (IP) generally will not stick to another curved surface and typically bounce or roll off

However, freezing drizzle between sleet showers (pretty common) definitely will stick to trees and powerlines, even more than ZR

 

[Coach McGuirk]

Well, it's supposed to get down to 17 degrees tomorrow night.  It is extremely cold and difficult to get over freezing when the storm is storming.