January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It tries so hard to keep @BornAgain13 snow for the first 6-8 hours 

This is the ONLY way we can score a coup here is with that inital thump before the mid levels get overcome with grossness. 

[Regan]

26 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

We could get dry slotted and will likely still get over an inch of precip. There will be a dry slot over the coast due to the SLP location being so close to the coastline. 

I completely agree about the coast. 

[tarheelwx]

Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map?

 

 

TW

[Silver Meteor]

55 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Not sure how to fix it, more education I guess. Getting people to understand the difference between possible and probable.

Don't even get me started on "plausible." Sigh. 

[PackGrad05]

On 1/20/2026 at 10:49 AM, PackGrad05 said:

Based on location of high pressure and the current upstream dynamics, I'm predicting a more northerly track that puts most of NC south of 85 in the warmer sector.  Freezing rain/sleet dominates.  

Posted this on January 20.  I'm still going with it.  
It was based on meteorological analysis of models and data at the time, combined with over 40 years of experience in this region.  

Interested to see new model output, especially more high res later today.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Posted this on January 20.  I'm still going with it.  
It was based on meteorological analysis of models and data at the time, combined with over 40 years of experience in this region.  

Interested to see new model output, especially more high res later today.

FV3 is downright cold with the initial thump that heads over from the TN Valley.

[Thrasher Fan]

12z GFS similar to previous run out to 36h. Maybe a touch colder. Nothing to write home about

[wake4est]

Super interested in if the GFS changes anything

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 is downright cold with the initial thump that heads over from the TN Valley.

The CAM models will be interesting once the system gets going over Texas. I don't think I've had a chance to actually look at them with a storm in progress.

[olafminesaw]

Just now, Thrasher Fan said:

GFS similar to previous run out to 36h

Slightly south with a stronger HP

[olafminesaw]

A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54

[DTP]

15 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map?

 

 

TW

Not in quite a while......

[wake4est]

good lord the goofus ain't budging

[olafminesaw]

Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z

[wake4est]

Absolute sleet paste job for NC

 

Keeps central nc as sleet thru Sunday nite

[wncsnow]

The GFS has been ticking north for 36 hours now. 

[DTP]

6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The CAM models will be interesting once the system gets going over Texas. I don't think I've had a chance to actually look at them with a storm in progress.

Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points 

[eyewall]

Just now, wake4est said:

Absolute sleet paste job for NC

You will be able to keep beer cold outside for awhile after it. 

[Stormpc]

Let's see if it goes back to the quick transfer then wrap around snow

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor. 

[DTP]

1 minute ago, DTP said:

Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points 

And you will notice the wild swings stop and begin to form a solid line of best fit 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS has been ticking north for 36 hours now. 

The HP was a bit weaker, but the coastal transfer occured further so kind of a wash

[HKY_WX]

Man... The amount of precip this thing is going to pump out can't be accurately depicted. This is such an insane jet configuration for STJ moisture. I would be surprised if several of us don't see over 2 inches of qpf.

 

[wake4est]

3" sleet, almost 1" zr on top for Raleigh.

 

1.8-1.9" qpf

[xAllVolsx]

I might be and probably most likely wrong, but I can see a major swing coming in with these models in the last 24-48hr. The wide robust guessing game between the models and Mets is a good setup for a wild ending. 

[KChuck]

Latest official forecast for our area... 

Twenty percent chance of snow, fifteen percent chance of wet snow, twenty percent chance of sleet, forty-five percent chance of freezing rain, and zero percent chance I'm right. 

Al Sleet (Hippy Dippy Weatherman-George Carlin) 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS Warmer due to weaker high, flips some over to rain but not after damage is done, literally

[Upstate Tiger]

Given the alternatives, I would prefer what the GFS is showing for NC. More sleet, less freezing rain.

[wake4est]

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

The only saving grace for the Triangle on this map, could be that most of the ZR comes at the tail end when the temps have risen to the upper 20s. The ice accretion is still good, but not all that falls will freeze like it would in the mid to lower 20s. That said it would still be very bad.