Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: It tries so hard to keep @BornAgain13 snow for the first 6-8 hours This is the ONLY way we can score a coup here is with that inital thump before the mid levels get overcome with grossness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 26 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: We could get dry slotted and will likely still get over an inch of precip. There will be a dry slot over the coast due to the SLP location being so close to the coastline. I completely agree about the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map? TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 55 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Not sure how to fix it, more education I guess. Getting people to understand the difference between possible and probable. Don't even get me started on "plausible." Sigh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/20/2026 at 10:49 AM, PackGrad05 said: Based on location of high pressure and the current upstream dynamics, I'm predicting a more northerly track that puts most of NC south of 85 in the warmer sector. Freezing rain/sleet dominates. Posted this on January 20. I'm still going with it. It was based on meteorological analysis of models and data at the time, combined with over 40 years of experience in this region. Interested to see new model output, especially more high res later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Posted this on January 20. I'm still going with it. It was based on meteorological analysis of models and data at the time, combined with over 40 years of experience in this region. Interested to see new model output, especially more high res later today. FV3 is downright cold with the initial thump that heads over from the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z GFS similar to previous run out to 36h. Maybe a touch colder. Nothing to write home about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Super interested in if the GFS changes anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: FV3 is downright cold with the initial thump that heads over from the TN Valley. The CAM models will be interesting once the system gets going over Texas. I don't think I've had a chance to actually look at them with a storm in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Thrasher Fan said: GFS similar to previous run out to 36h Slightly south with a stronger HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A bit delayed a bit more strung out. No major changes through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Does anyone remember seeing such a widespread map? TW Not in quite a while...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 good lord the goofus ain't budging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Comes north slightly in the end, but not much different than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Absolute sleet paste job for NC Keeps central nc as sleet thru Sunday nite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The GFS has been ticking north for 36 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The CAM models will be interesting once the system gets going over Texas. I don't think I've had a chance to actually look at them with a storm in progress. Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, wake4est said: Absolute sleet paste job for NC You will be able to keep beer cold outside for awhile after it. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Let's see if it goes back to the quick transfer then wrap around snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 @BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, DTP said: Much clearer predictive picture at that point- they are now working closer to the mean and not the tails- much more robust data points And you will notice the wild swings stop and begin to form a solid line of best fit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The GFS has been ticking north for 36 hours now. The HP was a bit weaker, but the coastal transfer occured further so kind of a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Man... The amount of precip this thing is going to pump out can't be accurately depicted. This is such an insane jet configuration for STJ moisture. I would be surprised if several of us don't see over 2 inches of qpf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3" sleet, almost 1" zr on top for Raleigh. 1.8-1.9" qpf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I might be and probably most likely wrong, but I can see a major swing coming in with these models in the last 24-48hr. The wide robust guessing game between the models and Mets is a good setup for a wild ending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Latest official forecast for our area... Twenty percent chance of snow, fifteen percent chance of wet snow, twenty percent chance of sleet, forty-five percent chance of freezing rain, and zero percent chance I'm right. Al Sleet (Hippy Dippy Weatherman-George Carlin) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS Warmer due to weaker high, flips some over to rain but not after damage is done, literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Given the alternatives, I would prefer what the GFS is showing for NC. More sleet, less freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: The only saving grace for the Triangle on this map, could be that most of the ZR comes at the tail end when the temps have risen to the upper 20s. The ice accretion is still good, but not all that falls will freeze like it would in the mid to lower 20s. That said it would still be very bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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