January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

[ADB83]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Would probably save a lot of time and energy if I just read the NWS forecast discussions and only start looking at the models if they are talking about a winter storm 3 days out. I just can't get over the Euro showing 15 inches of snow here Tuesday and then by Wednesday it was all freezing rain. 

Don’t look now but the Euro about to do it again next weekend lol. Will give you another chance to believe it when it does it again 

[Ander]

I guess I am going to voice this, but increasingly I find all the weather stuff really not useful.  I have lived in NC for 20 years now and this pattern just repeats over and over.  Big hurricane, get prepped, we will get wrecked and...nothing.  Same is true for winter storms.  It just makes me frustrated because it basically teaches me not to take weather threats seriously.  I am pretty well prepped in general, but based on this stuff I made some additional purchases because it seemed feasible we could be without power for a good week or more.  I spent money on it, I took a lot of time to get it done, and now as we get closer it basically seems like it is either trending nothing burger to icemageddon.

In my own field I am very cautious about making predictions because predicting human behavior can be very tricky to get right.  I can offer some observations or past lessons or even a couple scenarios but I find it impossible to predict much over a time horizon.  Yet in this it seems the more quant data we have the less certainty we get.  The old line of garbage in and garbage out keeps coming to mind.  Dont get me wrong, I love this site and being able to have a leg up but it feels like we are all getting taken for a ride storm after storm after storm no matter what type it is.

 

What is driving this for me mostly is I have an immunocompromised wife and a special needs son.  I feel the weight of needing to get this stuff right for my family, but I hate feeling fooled each time we go through the big storm process.  

[Brick Tamland]

NAM just has spotty precip in NC by Sunday.

[DTP]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Subtle yet potentially impactful changes out to 48 when weighing anything between sleet vs freezing rain. Heights slightly lower and HP also about 2 

3 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

For sure.  The kicker to that is multiple globals were showing big snow for a big chunk of NC within the 72 hour window.  If I remember correctly, that was Tuesday 18z, and at that time the start of the precip was roughly Friday evening or overnight at the latest.  It was the 0z models a few hours later that started the real warning signs.  I know it sucks for the TV people.  They know all this info is shared across social media so they have to keep people in check while at the same time having no idea what the actual outcome will be until closer to 24-48 hours.

 

Lol- yessir

Unfortunately, now it becomes a "boy who cried wolf" scenario- confusion amongst the public = them not taking this seriously because of a mixed message

 

Case in point- yanked my gennie out in the driveway yesterday evening to check fluids and make sure it was running properly- had 3 separate neighbors come over and ask why I was running it, so I mentioned that we may have some outages...two of whom said "I heard on my weather app it wasnt supposed to snow"::face palm::

[lilj4425]

Chris Justus freaking everybody out again. The guy loves to make a mountain out of a mole hill. 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is later and with lesser precip in NC. 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the majority of the precip cuts to the north once it gets to the NC mountains. 

[olafminesaw]

That warm nose is incredible given the precip hasn't even arrived yet

[wncsnow]

The short range says this isnt a catastrophic ice storm. Keep trending west and we dry slot 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like the majority of the precip cuts to the north once it gets to the NC mountains. 

Don't trust the NAM precip fields out that far.

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 minute ago, DTP said:

Lol- yessir

Unfortunately, now it becomes a "boy who cried wolf" scenario- confusion amongst the public = them not taking this seriously because of a mixed message

 

Case in point- yanked my gennie out in the driveway yesterday evening to check fluids and make sure it was running properly- had 3 separate neighbors come over and ask why I was running it, so I mentioned that we may have some outages...two of whom said "I heard on my weather app it wasnt supposed to snow"::face palm::

Not sure how to fix it, more education I guess. Getting people to understand the difference between possible and probable.

[ADB83]

I don’t really believe it, but the NAM does offer a way out for a lot of us to miss the worst of the ice. It’s certainly possible. 

[phishbfm]

Southern trend with total QPF...but less overall it seems for NC

[Brick Tamland]

We might go from a huge two-day snowstorm with over 16 inches in NC to just spotty sleet.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The short range says this isnt a catastrophic ice storm. Keep trending west and we dry slot 

I keep thinking this. If this goes west we miss out on the initial band of WAA precip. If the only precip we get is from the firehose, with peak warm nose, the rain will be warmer when it falls before freezing and heavy rates equal runoff. We would likely avoid a serious ice storm for most of the forum. That notion didn’t seem possible until today  

[ADB83]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

We might go from a huge two-day snowstorm with over 16 inches in NC to just spotty sleet.

 

The public backlash to this, whether it’s deserved or not, would be to borrow a word that the social media click chasing hype people have ruined forever: EPIC

[Upstate Tiger]

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Chris Justus freaking everybody out again. The guy loves to make a mountain out of a mole hill. 

He's probably taking his talking points from the mets at GSP.  I was on a regional call this morning with EM, healthcare, utilities etc and the forecasters at GSP were painting a pretty grim picture for this weekend using words like "memorable storm" and "devastating impacts."  They seemed pretty concerned.  Maybe after Helene they just want everyone to take the threat serious.  We're looking at this as amateurs (except the red tags) but those guys GSP are pros and have to make high stakes forecasts.    

[Buddy1987]

Me thinks NAM is playing catchup with trajectory compared to the Globals for moisture influx. I was more interested in the 24-48 hr mark to see what changes, if any, had happened upstairs. Everything else is take with a grain of salt approach

[SUNYGRAD]

I like to see all of the 12Z model and ensembles, but the drier solution for NC is possible.  

[Blacksburg Coach]

This is probably a question for a different thread. I'm curious how much funding cuts and a lack of investment in our models and weather infrastructure will impact predictions going forward and if this is the best we can hope for?

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

We might go from a huge two-day snowstorm with over 16 inches in NC to just spotty sleet.

 

 

Also/Or a lot of misty long game freezing drizzle too Brick.

The no bueno stuff

[Tyler Penland]

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Don't trust the NAM precip fields out that far.

The 12km doesn't even have the current precip across Georgia right at initialization.  

[NorthHillsWx]

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now. 

[BornAgain13]

This is odd topic but the next weekend has potential to.

[Regan]

[gman]

We need to remember that the weather folks are going with information they have at the moment. Bottom line, there is the good chance this could be a bad ice storm. They cannot ignore that fact at all. I would rather they overplay a storm than underplay it. It is like buying a generator last year. I hope I spent $800 and never had to use it again. The same with this storm. I hope I am prepared just in case. The best case scenario being, the hype was way overdone. People just need to go with the flow. Life is short people, enjoy the moment. 

[HKY_WX]

6 minutes ago, Regan said:

Yeah i've thought that for a few days. However if thermals at 850mb are 10C, then it could theoretically be correct. I have seen sleet before where the warm nose is much higher (think 700ish mbs). If the warm nose is only a few thousand feet off the sfc (850mb - 900mb), then the rain doesn't have time to refreeze before it gets to the sfc. This is why you can have ZR with sfc temps in the teens.  

[NorthHillsWx]

What’s crazy is how much slower this system is. It’s Thursday morning and a couple days ago we were thinking Friday night start time. Now it’s looking like it could be early Sunday morning? I don’t see much before 06z 

[msuwx]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If this “busts” for the Carolina’s from an ice perspective the Mets who hyped this are going to have to have a reckoning. The snow idea is gone but this is an example where withholding anything but saying “potential for significant winter weather” would save a lot of egg on faces if this doesn’t pan out, which is a distinct possibility right now. 

Your wording sounds a lot like my public forecasts, to this point. The problem with the social media click-baiters and fear-mongers is there is never any accountability. People just share their bologna and move on.