January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[tarheelwx]

2 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Current NWS Blend

 

What exactly does "Total Ice" mean on this map?

TW

 

[wake4est]

Just now, tarheelwx said:

What exactly does "Total Ice" mean on this map?

TW

 

Freezing rain

[eyewall]

Well I am being relocated for work to be out of the Ice zone so I am going to the DC area where I have family (they won't lose power where they are in snow).

[wake4est]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Check out this really cool site that shows rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain all simultaneously.  
TW

https://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=49&field=acctype

Sleet ratios are what, 3:1 liquid equivalent?

[WXNewton]

12z Canadian drives the wedge deeper than 0z and pushes sleet/fz rain further south this run during the heart of the precip.

[eyewall]

Just now, wake4est said:

Sleet ratios are what, 3:1 liquid equivalent?

4:1 I think.

[Buddy1987]

The Canadian is an absolute dumpster fire of epic proportions. I trust no part of that when it drives the primary that far north but then the thermals looks like the GFS lol.

[WXNewton]

Looking over GFS and Canadian for HKY area

GFS: Roughly 4-5 inches of snow 2-3" of IP and 1/4" of zr.

Canadian: 4-5" of IP and 1/2" of zr.

[BooneWX]

Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.

[CaryWx]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

4:1 I think.

With these temps currently modeled I think so.

[NorthHillsWx]

I mean honestly the CMC didn’t change much if at all from 0z

[wake4est]

After the glazing many will receive this weekend, those wind gusts in the wake of the storm are .... problematic. Yikes. 

[calculus1]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Looking over GFS and Canadian for HKY area

GFS: Roughly 4-5 inches of snow 2-3" of IP and 1/4" of zr.

Canadian: 4-5" of IP and 1/2" of zr.

That is a typical type of storm from what I remember in the 1980s-1990s as a kid in Lenoir. Either way, those are EPIC sledding conditions. It will stay around for a week, too.

[CaryWx]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The Canadian is an absolute dumpster fire of epic proportions. I trust no part of that when it drives the primary that far north but then the thermals looks like the GFS lol.

Not really the meso area of our wedge will behave differently in this evolving situation than what is happening west of the apps.

[WXNewton]

CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.

 

[SnowDawg]

Everything trending towards more ZR is just awful. I'd do anything to see it go back to all sleet or just keep going and get rain. But CMC may be at the ceiling of how far it could cut and it is still ZR... Add in the wind gusts and I'm getting scared. Not much in weather scares me but an ice storm of that magnitude definitely does. 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

After the glazing many will receive this weekend, those wind gusts in the wake of the storm are .... problematic. Yikes. 

This is my fear of where the problems will truly occur.  Wind picks up as this storm pumps on exit...After we have coated trees and power lines from the zr precip.  Sunday noon and after could just be one breakage and compiling catastrophe after another. 

[RaleighNC]

13 hours ago, MDsnowPRO said:

 

My Dad's cancer returned.

[BooneWX]

Flatter AIGFS fwiw

[ADB83]

I’ve pretty much given up on getting major snow in the Triad, need the Canadian to go even further the north to miss the ice. The kids are gonna love the sledding. It’s going to be epic. But man, the power people, etc. Looks like it could be rough. For a lot of our state 

[BornAgain13]

12z GEFS looks like it cut way back on precip.

[buckeyefan1]

Here ya’ll go

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 

[wake4est]

UKIE is doing some things...

[RaleighNC]

20 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I'm really curious to see how things play out with whatever falls and our temps not really getting above freezing for days and days...

Most of that sledding will occur in vehicles...

[Blacksburg Coach]

UK poking the warm nose up early, 540 further north and moving fast

[btownheel]

Think we’re heading towards the “middling” out part of this journey where all the battle lines start setting up dead red where climo says they will.

Pingerfest 2026 in N. Central NC.


.

[BooneWX]

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

CMC seemed to have brought the wedge in stronger than 0z run. We know more times than not, that once we get into the 24 hr frame on a wedge setup like this the models tend to deepen it even more, do you agree with that thinking still?

 

100%. I think this is setting up to be the sleet storm of the century in our neck of the woods.

[BornAgain13]

UK actually is better than 0z and colder. 

[wake4est]

Ukie clown has 8" in Raleigh at 10:1, but 0.8" on the Kuchera map. That's is a crap ton of sleet the snow map is showing. 

[WXNewton]

GEFS precip has really remained pretty solid and consistent in the same location over the past two days. It's either going to be consistently wrong or right lol.