January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[SUNYGRAD]

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Winter Storm Event – Products | North Carolina State Climate Office

Only difference is the parent high is much stronger. So more snow and sleet in NC (Think 20 degrees vs 30 degrees). It would move that ZR swath to central GA - midlands of SC.

[SUNYGRAD]

Agree, and in our favor for more snow/sleet.

[HKY_WX]

14 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

I hope you’re right. I usually hang out in the Mid-Atlantic forum because I’m in Richmond, and the D.C. and north crew are honking about it trending north.


.

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol. This is not your average setup, it's very anomalous and will likely produce some very anomalous results.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I will add to pay attention to the NAM within 48 hours of the storm. It does amazingly well in CAD setups with warm noses. Its burned many of us before 

This is literally the type of storm the NAM was built for. NAM will be the most watched model starting tomorrow night 

[mstr4j]

 

Awesome trip down memory lane - this was the 10-year anniversary thread, some potential similarities, though I think the cold air we are working with in January is much denser than December.  The changeover is inevitable with this powerful a system, and I personally believe the freezing rain line will be somewhere in Greenwood, SC.  I just can't see these more northern ZR numbers verifying, not in January with this strong of a high.  But it's a SE winter storm, so all cards are always on the table.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol. This is not your average setup, it's very anomalous and will likely produce some very anomalous results.

 

 

Fact that is EPS inside 4 days and not some random 300 hour GFS run is absurd 

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

They may be right from a wish casting perspective in regards to the northern extent of the precip, but that's it. This only can go so far north with a 1050mb high sitting in Iowa starting Friday lol. This is not your average setup, it's very anomalous and will likely produce some very anomalous results.

 

 

Let's keep it right where it is ...

Although there's something to be said for sleet, in that it keeps snowpack around for a while. I got 4" snow and sleet in Jan 2022, and it stuck around for two weeks. 

Also the last two runs of the (fantasy range) NAM have shown a weak disturbance bringing some snow to the VA/NC border and north on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro, otherwise I wouldn't be talking about it

@BornAgain13

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is literally the type of storm the NAM was built for. NAM will be the most watched model starting tomorrow night 

100% yes. 

The movement north is not a big concern like stated. it will be the upper level warmth base on strength of the LP moving through. 

Lots to be ironed out for sure. 

 

[HKY_WX]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fact that is EPS inside 4 days and not some random 300 hour GFS run is absurd 

Yep. Allan is freaking out about this one and that's rare when it comes to these systems. This one could be epic. We're long overdue to be honest.

[HKY_WX]

10 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Let's keep it right where it is ...

Although there's something to be said for sleet, in that it keeps snowpack around for a while. I got 4" snow and sleet in Jan 2022, and it stuck around for two weeks. 

Also the last two runs of the (fantasy range) NAM have shown a weak disturbance bringing some snow to the VA/NC border and north on Friday. There was some support for the idea on the Euro, otherwise I wouldn't be talking about it

@BornAgain13

Classic overrunning. There will likely be a finger of precip that pushes out ahead of the main round due to the forcing aloft. When you have a dense cold dome at the surface and a screaming Jetstream at 300mb, it doesn't take much to generate precipitation. Notice it coincides with the surface front screaming in from the parent HP.

 

 

[burgertime]

Wow what a great looking storm! That cold air really does look legit here. In some ways this reminds me of the Feb 2011 storm. I think that's the one anyways. A lot of NC ended up with around 4-8 inches of snow and like an inch or two of sleet. 

 

Rooting for you guys! 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Yep. Allan is freaking out about this one and that's rare when it comes to these systems. This one could be epic. We're long overdue to be honest.

Where can I read Allan’s thoughts?

[DeltaPilot]

Really concerned about the icing event progged for Central GA/most of SC. I dont recall numbers for QPF and FR  amounts like that in my entire time living here (25 years). With the cold and mid level set up

currently forecast, it looks to be a literal perfect storm for what could be the most devastating winter event here since probably Mar of 93. Hoping and praying this is sleet with a few upfront inches of snow.

That much ice, even half of it shown on some of the recent models will be extremely serious.  CAD looks strong with this one, which probably means we stay more in the FR area longer here. Usually it backs north and eastward  

pretty quickly during these types of events, limitng what we end up with. Not seeing that happen with this one. Seems it extends way farther south and westward than normal.

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Wow what a great looking storm! That cold air really does look legit here. In some ways this reminds me of the Feb 2011 storm. I think that's the one anyways. A lot of NC ended up with around 4-8 inches of snow and like an inch or two of sleet. 

 

Rooting for you guys! 

 miss hearing your signature BOOM 

[Louise]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There was a storm in Raleigh in the 2000’s (can’t remember exactly when) but we had several inches of sleet. We were supposed to go on a family trip and I remember driving to RDU and watching the temp tick down to the mid 20s on the drive only to get there and find the flight was cancelled and drive home in it. Think we mixed with ZR but it was a long duration storm at least a couple days and stayed cold despite it being sleet instead of snow. Some of the best road sledding I remember 

I remember! We had over a foot of snow. It was a blizzard, winds howling. We are just west of Raleigh. It was warm in the days leading up to it. Forecast was a minimum of any snow. Fishel came on & said well this was missed. The trees looked like white chocolate pretzels.

[burgertime]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 miss hearing your signature BOOM 

Not even sure BOOM! does it justice in this case haha. 

[frazdaddy]

12 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Wow what a great looking storm! That cold air really does look legit here. In some ways this reminds me of the Feb 2011 storm. I think that's the one anyways. A lot of NC ended up with around 4-8 inches of snow and like an inch or two of sleet. 

 

Rooting for you guys! 

I was hoping this would bring you to the board. 

[HKY_WX]

9 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Really concerned about the icing event progged for Central GA/most of SC. I dont recall numbers for QPF and FR  amounts like that in my entire time living here (25 years). With the cold and mid level set up

currently forecast, it looks to be a literal perfect storm for what could be the most devastating winter event here since probably Mar of 93. Hoping and praying this is sleet with a few upfront inches of snow.

That much ice, even half of it shown on some of the recent models will be extremely serious.  CAD looks strong with this one, which probably means we stay more in the FR area longer here. Usually it backs north and eastward  

pretty quickly during these types of events, limitng what we end up with. Not seeing that happen with this one. Seems it extends way farther south and westward than normal.

You should be in this scenario. I honestly don't think it's too early to say that. Do yourself a favor and get ahead of the crowd.  Back up heat, batteries, water, etc.

[eyewall]

It is the worst feeling riding the line here in Raleigh. All I am hoping for is to hit 6 inches of snow. I know mixing is inevitable but that is what I am hoping for. 

[Snow dog]

14 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Really concerned about the icing event progged for Central GA/most of SC. I dont recall numbers for QPF and FR  amounts like that in my entire time living here (25 years). With the cold and mid level set up

currently forecast, it looks to be a literal perfect storm for what could be the most devastating winter event here since probably Mar of 93. Hoping and praying this is sleet with a few upfront inches of snow.

That much ice, even half of it shown on some of the recent models will be extremely serious.  CAD looks strong with this one, which probably means we stay more in the FR area longer here. Usually it backs north and eastward  

pretty quickly during these types of events, limitng what we end up with. Not seeing that happen with this one. Seems it extends way farther south and westward than normal.

Where is your location in Georgia?

[SnowHabit]

It is the worst feeling riding the line here in Raleigh. All I am hoping for is to hit 6 inches of snow. I know mixing is inevitable but that is what I am hoping for. 

Same feeling here… I’m down in the Fayetteville area and hoping for just a few inches.


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[PackGrad05]

90% of the time, Wake is a battle zone.  Geographically it's just the way it works, due to position in the state, distance from Apps, and the north/south length of the county.  

Very very very rare for the entire county to get the same thing.  Down here in southern wake i'd be happy with 1-2 inches of snow.

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

90% of the time, Wake is a battle zone.  Geographically it's just the way it works, due to position in the state, distance from Apps, and the north/south length of the county.  

Very very very rare for the entire county to get the same thing.  Down here in southern wake i'd be happy with 1-2 inches of snow.

Honestly with this setup, I would not.  

[wncsnow]

ICON is North. Lots of freezing rain even in the foothills...

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

90% of the time, Wake is a battle zone.  Geographically it's just the way it works, due to position in the state, distance from Apps, and the north/south length of the county.  

Very very very rare for the entire county to get the same thing.  Down here in southern wake i'd be happy with 1-2 inches of snow.

I think if the Euro and GFS are right then the whole county should be crushed. 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is North. Lots of freezing rain even in the foothills...

As long as the Euro and GFS hold serve I am not worried about what the ICON shows.

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

As long as the Euro and GFS hold serve I am not worried about what the ICON shows.

It could be the start of the north trend. We'll see shortly.

[SUNYGRAD]

...and a fair share of ensembles.

[HKY_WX]

40 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Where can I read Allan’s thoughts?

Just search for Allan Huffman on Twitter.