January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[BornAgain13]

Would not be surprised if the 0z GEFS has a foot mean in some areas.

[kvegas-wx]

Oh the humanity!!!  Did not see that GFS coming.  Temps just plummet into this event and stay there for days.  

[NorthHillsWx]

This is like a repeat of December 2018 but much colder at surface 

[BornAgain13]

Definitely a south shift on the 0z CMC but still to far north taken verbatim. 

[WiseWeather]

Big GFS run.

Check please.


.

[btownheel]

This is like a repeat of December 2018 but much colder at surface 

And juicier. The duration and qpf is just silly.


.

[WiseWeather]

And juicier. The duration and qpf is just silly.


.

And the cold after… this would be generational because we havent had a storm like this since 93 where there has been prolonged cold after a storm.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, btownheel said:

And juicier. The duration and qpf is just silly.


.

I don’t buy the duration. Seen this so many times on modeling where energy consolidates either on front or back and it trends much shorter duration in time. Would be astonishing to see but I really doubt that is reality

[JoshM]

Canadian is just goofy... let's just plow thru the wedge.

 

[yotaman]

6 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Check please.


.

That's a horrible run for us in the east 

[cbmclean]

MA enjoying the CMC, which sucks for NC and South.

[PackGrad05]

Not liking the trends for wake. Especially southern wake. More mixing. Less snow.
Too far out to look at totals. I’m looking at trends.
Climatology also


.

[NorthHillsWx]

My first guess on this event is a Virginia/mid Atlantic special. Think the northern half of NC has a high chance of snow but mix will limit accumulation and more so as you head south. South Carolina and north GA would see some level of an ice storm, tbd on severity. Ensembles and ops seem to be converging on roughly a climo mix line with the one caveat being substantially colder than normal BL temps due to perfect placement of a strong high. IMO I think a very heavy sleet storm is possible for a larger than normal area in NC 

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

MA enjoying the CMC, which sucks for NC and South.

It's further South than 12z was

[btownheel]

I don’t buy the duration. Seen this so many times on modeling where energy consolidates either on front or back and it trends much shorter duration in time. Would be astonishing to see but I really doubt that is reality

Yeh but how often do we have this type of blocking setup that forces it to “slide” rather than bomb into typical Miller A track and wrap up?

It really tracks like a juiced 1988.


.

[btownheel]

My first guess on this event is a Virginia/mid Atlantic special. Think the northern half of NC has a high chance of snow but mix will limit accumulation and more so as you head south. South Carolina and north GA would see some level of an ice storm, tbd on severity. Ensembles and ops seem to be converging on roughly a climo mix line with the one caveat being substantially colder than normal BL temps due to perfect placement of a strong high. IMO I think a very heavy sleet storm is possible for a larger than normal area in NC 

We’re getting progged for well over a foot. I get the concerns and they’re legit but for now, enjoy it. Still 4 days to sweat the details.


.

[Thrasher Fan]

I have no words.

[wncsnow]

I don't like the trends with capturing the Baja low. It could amp too far west and even north of I 85 suffer from ice. 

[PackGrad05]

[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]" timestamp="[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]" name="NorthHillsWx" userid="[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]]"] My first guess on this event is a Virginia/mid Atlantic special. Think the northern half of NC has a high chance of snow but mix will limit accumulation and more so as you head south. South Carolina and north GA would see some level of an ice storm, tbd on severity. Ensembles and ops seem to be converging on roughly a climo mix line with the one caveat being substantially colder than normal BL temps due to perfect placement of a strong high. IMO I think a very heavy sleet storm is possible for a larger than normal area in NC 

Bingo. Too amped for wake to be all snow.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, btownheel said:

Yeh but how often do we have this type of blocking setup that forces it to “slide” rather than bomb into typical Miller A track and wrap up?

It really tracks like a juiced 1988.


.

If modeled correctly it would be exceedingly rare like the 1988 storm as it is tough to slide that much energy without some consolidation. CMC is the alternative scenario, much more amped and less duration, still a large storm. We really want less consolidation and kinda what the 18z gfs had or most on here mix. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

2 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

I have no words.

Is there only .09 freezing rain in north Fulton county here bc rest is sleet? 

[Thrasher Fan]

2 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Is there only .09 freezing rain in north Fulton county here bc rest is sleet? 

I'd need to check the thermals to confirm, but yes the sleet would be measured in inches if that run verified in the north metro. 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Canadian is just goofy... let's just plow thru the wedge.

 

Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically.  Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast.  No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.

[WXNewton]

00z GEFS is going to be an insane mean, seems to be running a tad colder, more moisture and totals are bumping up even more than 18z. Going to be amazing for many.

[Thrasher Fan]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically.  Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast.  No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.

Like a Cat 2+ hurricane. Haha

[BornAgain13]

GEFS is Huge Totals 

[BornAgain13]

Incoming on UK!

[NorthHillsWx]

Hopefully the euro holds its ground. What we have going for us atm that kinda gives us some wiggle room is a very strong and well placed high (thank the lord). This is the absolute opposite of last weekend, we do not want anything to dig further west and we want very little amplification until the coast. I’m worried by these clown maps with 10” south of 24” luring folks into thinking that is still good. Usually that means as we get closer and resolution increases you can cut those totals by 2/3 south of the max area due to mix. Not trying to be negative but we need to be reasonable that a lot of the current data points would indicate south of VA is unlikely to see a pure snowstorm at this time. That does not mean it cannot be a big storm in these areas and I’m not even throwing amounts out but that’s my first call. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Some of these models are not handling the HP blocking all that well in this stage of the game...

[NorthHillsWx]

UK is ugly, mix well into Virginia and major ice in NC. Similar to CMC