First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It blows. Terrible.

Is the NAM that much better though? Maybe like the difference between Ralph Wiggum and Chief Wiggum

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Is the NAM that much better though? Maybe like the difference between Ralph Wiggum and Chief Wiggum

I feel like it is. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh boy, oh boy oh boy!

We love to see it. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ray somehow manages to be in the screw zone.

For those of us on the western edge of this map. Does this include todays precip or just tomorrows?

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

guessing advisories regionwide i dont think theyll go that high

They’ll likely start with a watch 

[Spanks45]

Icon looks decent for most of SNE now

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon RGEM and NAM are all pretty good here.

low end warning. Let’s see what the real models do 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ray somehow manages to be in the screw zone.

I'm sure the day I get the hell out of this meteorological armpit, the incarnate of March 5, 2001 will strike.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/15/2026 at 12:05 PM, kdxken said:

Start a thread. 

First Legit Storm Potential of the Season (we mean it this time)

Not a bad idea...you're welcome.

[Bryan63]

Even mother nature knows the Pats will need some help slowing down the Texans pass rush.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a bad idea...you're welcome.

LMAO i was waiting for this , nice work Ray

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LMAO i was waiting for this , nice work Ray

Not gonna lie...I had just about given up, which is why I condensed into two parts last night, but obviously going to be a second write up as usual tonight.

[The 4 Seasons]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’ll likely start with a watch 

id bet money that won't happen. wayyy to late in the game <24hrs. its either a warning or advisory and it will very very likely be an advisory, you can quote me later if im wrong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL at @Lucy Pull Is this scooter's alternate account?

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it is. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I think even though their resolution sucks, AI had the right idea of shortwave curl and also the kickers behind it. I feel like those kickers mattered more because the flow in the ops at first was directly from the NW and just booting the main shortwave out. I certainly did not buy the AI to that extent. 

[weatherwiz]

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

 

 

If that is thrown into the trash, set the RRFS on fire. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think even though their resolution sucks, AI had the right idea of shortwave curl and also the kickers behind it. I feel like those kickers mattered more because the flow in the ops at first was directly from the NW and just booting the main shortwave out. I certainly did not buy the AI to that extent. 

Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

id bet money that won't happen. wayyy to late in the game <24hrs. its either a warning or advisory and it will very very likely be an advisory, you can quote me later if im wrong. 

They'd need high confidence in 6+ for warnings. I don't see that. Even if we're amping to game time given the fits this one has given forecasters how could you have high enough confidence that we don't get a messenger shuffle (boo, I know) at the very last second?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

 

Lmao 

[jbenedet]

Hasn’t the EC AIFS had highest verification scores as of late…? I’m not sure why anyone is doubting it against the other globals.

 

Having that 32F surface isotherm dancing around our heads was a pretty easy tell we could get a good event here despite all the short term model waffling, across the other guidance.

 

The EC AIFS also kicked azz bc look at the past two days of runs—-so consistent.

 

 

[jbenedet]

Said differently, it’s like it took the rest of guidance two days to catch up to the EC AIFS… 

I’m able to say that bc it had the right depiction and stayed on it….

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hasn’t the EC AIFS had highest verification scores as of late…? I’m not sure why anyone is doubting it against the other globals.

 

Having that 32F surface isotherm dancing around our heads was a pretty easy tell we could get a good event here despite all the short term model waffling, across the other guidance.

 

The EC AIFS also kicked azz bc look at the past two days of runs—-so consistent.

 

 

Its the AI-ENS thats #1...AIFS is much lower down the list

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Its the AI-ENS thats #1...AIFS is much lower down the list

For AC's that low...what day is that? 7? 10?

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, dendrite said:

For AC's that low...what day is that? 7?

I'm not sure, its via earthlight

[dendrite]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm not sure, its via earthlight

If that's H5 AC...IIRC 0.50 is getting around d10 with the ops. 

[jbenedet]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm not sure, its via earthlight

I’m with @dendrite

 

But regardless - AIFS better than Euro/GFS, considering the list.. 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like the 12z is curling the vort a bit more at 33hr compared to 6z...maybe even 0z

[jbenedet]

We had to sacrifice this afternoon batch to get tomorrow to work.

speaking for the eastern crew…