First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Typhoon Tip]

no one's wasting time tracking these ...

the learning curve in this era of [ enter whatever euphemism makes it more comfortable for you ] is large.  can't really learn it otherwise

[Sey-Mour Snow]

What if AIFS pulls the rug out, then euro comes out with a widespread 2-5”

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What if AIFS pulls the rug out, then euro comes out with a widespread 2-5”

I’ll go with AI until proven worthless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I would have posted uncle but I actually was doing something useful-disavowing myself from weather as hobby.

Sounds good

[Cyclone-68]

Met fan must be happy. They just signed Bo Bichette 

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we have snow mobile adventure pics and snowpack updates at the base of Mt Mansfield to get us by.

Don’t worry, in a few days I’ll post snowy pictures of the Adirondacks to add some variety.

[weathafella]

AIfS quite robust.  I have qpf and it looks like >0.5 to the CT River 

[weathafella]

4-6” in all of sne.  All hail AI

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

AIfS quite robust.  I have qpf and it looks like >0.5 to the CT River 

Lol it actually got better versus 06z. What a mega disaster this is gonna be for the skynets. Or it will be one of the great coups. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Lol it actually got better versus 06z. What a mega disaster this is gonna be for the skynets. Or it will be one of the great coups. 

Yeah it ticked west lol. This is nuts.

[CoastalWx]

If AI delivers, I’ll give my degree to Nvidia and buy Jerry food and drinks at the next gtg.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If AI delivers, I’ll give my degree to Nvidia and buy Jerry food and drinks at the next gtg.

I just am morbidly curious how long they will keep doubling down. 

[CCHurricane]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it ticked west lol. This is nuts.

Cuts down on precip across interior New England, increases in southern and southeastern. 

[dendrite]

The resolution is what always puts me off with the AIs. There’s no fine details like the deterministic ops. Everything is more coarse and “fuzzy”.

I feel like that would provide more consistency in the mid or long range, but would result in being over generous in the short range. That’s why I always treat them like ens means.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it ticked west lol. This is nuts.

That’s actually a massive shift west with the WCB

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

The resolution is what always puts me off with the AIs. There’s no fine details like the deterministic ops. Everything is more coarse and “fuzzy”.

I feel like that would provide more consistency in the mid or long range, but would result in being over generous in the short range. That’s why I always treat them like ens means.

Tip said yesterday it reminds him of the old MRF graphics…that’s a pretty good description. 

[weatherwiz]

If non AI models were a big hit and AI models were a non hit, would the mindset be the same?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

If non AI models were a big hit and non AI models were a non hit, would the mindset be the same?

I’d be worried.  I fully expect euro to be a whiff though 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The resolution is what always puts me off with the AIs. There’s no fine details like the deterministic ops. Everything is more coarse and “fuzzy”.

I feel like that would provide more consistency in the mid or long range, but would result in being over generous in the short range. That’s why I always treat them like ens means.

 Not sure if it’s related to learning, but it does sharpen the gradient as we get closer. I try to look at the Synoptics too for trends be precip because it’s so broad brushed

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tip said yesterday it reminds him of the old MRF graphics…that’s a pretty good description. 

Yeah…like you’re painting the maps with a small paint brush instead of a fine tipped marker.

Like when the MRF would slap .01-0.10” in NW flow over all of New England when you knew it was just sensing the mountains and that we’d be dry while upslope areas dumped.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

If non AI models were a big hit and AI models were a non hit, would the mindset be the same?

Great question. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’d be worried.  I fully expect euro to be a whiff though 

Yup...Euro is basically saying it's time to essentially pull the plug with the hopes for anything big and perhaps even anything at all say the Cape

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Not sure if it’s related to learning, but it does sharpen the gradient as we get closer. I try to look at the Synoptics too for trends be precip because it’s so broad brushed

It does, but the ens means do as well.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It does, but the ens means do as well.

lol it is like the MRF stuff 

[WxWatcher007]

Everyone knows I haven’t been bullish on this one, but it’s honestly close enough to not yet punt on a minor to moderate event. This is a real battle. 

[dendrite]

I will say the H5 orientation and amplitude of the shortwave/vortmax of the EC AI looks like the 12z gfs op.

[weathafella]

Op euro expands the qpf field but a light event.  Not a whiff 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a better H5 look on 12z euro vs 6z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Everyone knows I haven’t been bullish on this one, but it’s honestly close enough to not yet punt on a minor to moderate event. This is a real battle. 

The surface trends are pretty wild , another 4 cycles like that and it looks like it’s AI counterpart

[weathafella]

So we’re playing op model musical chairs.