First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still think you could see some snow, but I think the trough orientation is sharpening a bit more which brings the main snow band NW. 

The 36 hour RAP performs very well…

Said no one ever …

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Temps do look kinda borderline here. Better not fn rain after all this. Let's get the system a bit stronger for heavier rates

I think that’s being kind of overblown. If it’s anything other than light snow for 18 hours, I think you’ll be fine

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think that’s being kind of overblown. If it’s anything other than light snow for 18 hours, I think you’ll be fine

Most likely..6z looked a little warmish at the start but this is going to waffle a bit until go time I think 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think that’s being kind of overblown. If it’s anything other than light snow for 18 hours, I think you’ll be fine

It’s a product of this being closer. I do think some precip may be used to cool the airmass a bit. I’d like to see this more meaty.

[Cold Miser]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't think much will be happening until after the game... ride home might have some snow depending on how long you stay in the lot.  I wish it was coming in sooner (if at all)

Makes sense. Kind of what I was thinking.  Thanks

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a product of this being closer. I do think some precip may be used to cool the airmass a bit. I’d like to see this more meaty.

Agreed. Not sure if it’s rain, but it might be slop for a bit.

The overnight runs definitely came west, but in the process, we’ve steadily lost dynamics. So while it’s closer, there is definitely still a legitimate ceiling.

Assuming this doesn’t escape east over the next two days, and we do get a system, I’d be surprised if anyone got 6” of snow, just kind of has that look of a middle of the road advisory event 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. Not sure if it’s rain, but it might be slop for a bit.

The overnight runs definitely came west, but in the process, we’ve steadily lost dynamics. So while it’s closer, there is definitely still a legitimate ceiling.

Assuming this doesn’t escape east over the next two days, and we do get a system, I’d be surprised if anyone got 6” of snow, just kind of has that look of a middle of the road advisory event 

Well if it came west you aren’t going to lose dynamics at the same time. But the system itself isn’t exactly a monster. Hopefully a few more ticks west.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if it came west you aren’t going to lose dynamics at the same time. But the system itself isn’t exactly a monster. Hopefully a few more ticks west.

Let’s keep that vortmax more consolidated and get double digits. Why not. 

[Cold Miser]

I love that I have been going from freeze to mini thaw / mud season every other day.  Yesterday my car sunk in 8” of mud.  Then I have to rake out the ruts so I can wake up to frozen dirt.  Same scene all season 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s keep that vortmax more consolidated and get double digits. Why not. 

Yeah it seemed like the 6z gfs was trying to curl it in last second on approach. I’d like to see this suite try to lean in that direction.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I love that I have been going from freeze to mini thaw / mud season every other day.  Yesterday my car sunk in 8” of mud.  Then I have to rake out the ruts so I can wake up to frozen dirt.  Same scene all season 

Pot holes are going to be absolutely cavernous this spring.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pot holes are going to be absolutely cavernous this spring.

My road is horrendus right now.  Like, hugely destroyed.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My road is horrendus right now.  Like, hugely destroyed.  

Yup. There’s some sinkholes down the road here too. They had a cone blocking one the other day and when I drove by it yesterday the cone was shattered so someone got swallowed in it.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pot holes are going to be absolutely cavernous this spring.

I hit a nasty one on the X way the other day. 

[weatherwiz]

Wow pleasant surprise with the overnight guidance. Given the time frame we're entering hopefully those trends are an indication of where we're headed. Definitely want to see the Euro with a bit of a bigger shift at 12z. Still need a bit of work but its doable at this range. 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it seemed like the 6z gfs was trying to curl it in last second on approach. I’d like to see this suite try to lean in that direction.

We need to “buy” ourselves about 3-5 hours for that vort to curl in before getting shoved E. Like you said, that 06z gfs at 66 hours was trying but then it just doesn’t have the time to really go to town before getting crunched east. 
 

The way we buy ourselves a little time is to really sharpen the trough so that lead vort energy gets shoved north into S Canada or near N NY border at 60h instead of slicing across VT/central NY acting like a brick wall. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I hit a nasty one on the X way the other day. 

Did your head do this?

[CoastalWx]

Not sure Nam will do it. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think. 

Might actually be worse than 6z

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think. 

Looks worse than 6z

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Might actually be worse than 6z

Yep

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure Nam will do it. 

Looks like horse shit. Hopefully it’s just being the NAM and one of its random clown solutions. But it’s never been bullish about this threat. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully we whiff on all the snow this weekend and go into next week brown. Deep winter rolls on.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks meh. Of all models that should be the most bullish you’d think. 

Just thinking to myself...is it a precursor the one model you would expect to go bonkers not doing so  

[CoastalWx]

Well that sucks but has me worried despite the Nam. 

[MJO812]

Nam is way south. Very weird.

[Go Kart Mozart]

It's up to Reggie, if that capitulates, we're in big trouble.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Bad start to 12z

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bad start to 12z

Nothing is that far south and east.  Weird run.