First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[MJO812]

Ai Euro ticked west

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai Euro ticked west

I thought it looked slightly east, but not much difference

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

What? Someone thinking he's clever throwing F-Bombs is entertaining?

Just talking truth bro…hope you weren’t offended. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

What? Someone thinking he's clever throwing F-Bombs is entertaining?

I think that was pure rage, not anything planned lol

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it looked slightly east

The low center ticked E but it was stronger with a larger QPF field, so the QPF looked slightly west. It's kind of what @Typhoon Tip was saying earlier about how the center can move slightly E but the impact of sensible wx can move slightly W if the storm is stronger/larger. 

 

Either way, we're talking error bars here....nothing big. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it looked slightly east, but not much difference

Low center was def a little east but precip thrown further west 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro AI is like 75-100 miles from being a really good event South of Boston, as is, kind of just another middling low end advisory 

[ORH_wxman]

Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore. 

It Might be on to something.  It’s not the only model showing some very wintry set ups after the 24th or so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this pans out and it’s puking in Foxboro between 3 and 6pm.

I don't think it would get going in time....

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

If I get 6-12 I’ll snow low in flip flops and tank top. Book it

Gonna hold you to that-

[The 4 Seasons]

48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully this pans out and it’s puking in Foxboro between 3 and 6pm.

Another Foxborough 2002 scenario?

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It Might be on to something.  It’s not the only model showing some very wintry set ups after the 24th or so. 

I buy it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it would get going in time....

Yeah. I think if anything happens it would be late

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I buy it.

Very Interesting for sure.  

[The 4 Seasons]

euro came west, still a whiff but improved

[The 4 Seasons]

[WeatherGeek2025]

24 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it looked slightly east, but not much difference

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

euro came west, still a whiff but improved

How did the overall evolution look in your professional opinion?  Did it trend towards a similar evolution of the guidance that gives a hit(and not talking the fantasy blizzard from 12z GFS). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very Interesting for sure.  

Second half of January into February was always go-time for me this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Pretty distinct trend. GFS (not 12z) has to be the model of choice here

[Snowcrazed71]

If we can get the Euro to tick the same as it did over the last 4 runs today, during tomorrow and Friday, we'll have ourselves a decent snowstorm for all of Southern New England... Even SE NY and Jersey.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did the overall evolution look in your professional opinion?  Did it trend towards a similar evolution of the guidance that gives a hit(and not talking the fantasy blizzard from 12z GFS). 

The S/W trough you see on the last frame of this animation over the M/A & Carolinas  is hanging back a bit and digging deeper than the 12Z run and is improving overall. Still dealing with that shit streak over the NE but it is lessing up a bit over the last run from 12Z. Overall these are improvements you want to see for a healthier system that gets a little more developed and is pulled in west a bit, which is exactly what is reflecting at the surface. So yea, its trending better, but still has a bit to go. It's just a few ticks off from being a solid hit for most of SNE. You want to see this happen again at 00z, but if it doesnt, were still within a lead time that things can waffle a bit before they get picked up and move west, it wouldn't take much. Inside of 84/72 hrs its much more important than 100+. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro AI was just noise to me, i mean you are really splitting hairs at this time frame to say west or east. It's the same imo. 

[SouthCoastMA]

That was a good move by the Euro. the outliers from 12z have moved towards each other at 18z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Another shift like that and it’s a warning event for Eastern Ma

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That was a good move by the Euro. the outliers from 12z have moved towards each other at 18z

Agreed. Hard to argue that wasn’t a fairly sizable shift 

[ineedsnow]

its coming!!! 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Agreed. Hard to argue that wasn’t a fairly sizable shift 

Agreed. And currently you’re in the best spot of all of us, along with those on the Cape. The rest of us have to hope for a few more movements than you. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

its coming!!! 

Let’s not get to overly confident…has work to do. But it has the time to do it.  Still Not sure it makes it though.