First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[TheBudMan]

Does any of this fall during the Pats game Sunday afternoon or starting overnight ?   What time do the Cowboys play Rev ?? #Cancun

[WeatherGeek2025]

is it me or do we need that saturday wave to go way west of us for us to get the bigger storm sunday?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be, but I feel like this has a better chance for reasons stated. Doesn't have to work out...

At least this threat has been semi-bullish on the AI models whereas the Friday threat was pretty much nada on those. 
 

Euro trending worse though is definitively a bad sign. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least this threat has been semi-bullish on the AI models whereas the Friday threat was pretty much nada on those. 
 

Euro trending worse though is definitively a bad sign. 

It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs being one of the first models out is crazy. Probably should reverse the order 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell

yeah, vort was looking more SW which is what the GFS did, but the lead wave dampened it. still like seeing that shift with the vort

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell

It is front-running too much vorticity it seems like. Keeps those heights lower out ahead of it. If that eases a bit, I think we’d see the trough sharpen nicely but there’s a reasonable chance the Euro is correct on the energy distribution…and if that’s the case, this won’t produce. Hopefully it’s a little too happy with that idea like it’s done a few times this winter. 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The GFS led on first storm of the season and it took the euro a while to catch up

Or not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@The 4 Seasons@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Not to clutter the thread, but I honestly didn't even mean to exclude CT in the sentiment expressed in that title.....truth is, I'm often rushed maintaining that blog with a full-time, part-time job and 4 little kids.

[CoastalWx]

Ray effed us

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks Ray.

[CoastalWx]

Why didn’t we start a thread to track Saturday’s interior coating? Kevin is all about it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is front-running too much vorticity it seems like. Keeps those heights lower out ahead of it. If that eases a bit, I think we’d see the trough sharpen nicely but there’s a reasonable chance the Euro is correct on the energy distribution…and if that’s the case, this won’t produce. Hopefully it’s a little too happy with that idea like it’s done a few times this winter. 

I think at this point we would need to see some sizable adjustments from the Euro (which I don't see happening) with the 0z run tonight if we want to talk about potential for widespread warning criteria. I guess we wait on the EPS now

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is it me or do we need that saturday wave to go way west of us for us to get the bigger storm sunday?

I think so,  When that one has been further west, The 19th has been as well

[CoastalWx]

At least we can track the diamond dust at 30,000ft. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think so,  When that one has been further west, The 19th has been as well

so NAM should be in range in the next run, we'll look for that wave to be west hopefully it trends west from here on out so we can get that actual coastal, nobody wants a dusting! we want KU !

[CoastalWx]

Someone fire up a pond ice thread. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why didn’t we start a thread to track Saturday’s interior coating? Kevin is all about it.

Can include here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

I think some sort of compromise is in store.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

I mean we all knew that lol. It happened like 3 days ago. Same story? Same result.

I sincerely mean this, we can’t get to spring fast enough. I’m tired of this 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least we can track the diamond dust at 30,000ft. 

Moon dimly visible?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think some sort of compromise is in store.

Can’t wait for 1-3” of sublimation 

[brooklynwx99]

thread of doom and despair

[Kitz Craver]

Didn’t the GFS just yesterday conjure up an all timer and disappear it the next run? It’s a total POS

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

But the GDPS has something still?!  Roll the dice.  GFS/GDPS says YAY, and ECMWF/UKMET say NAY.   With CostaslWx's luck this winter, he'll roll snake eyes!!  LOL.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel. 

Breathe

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie/ Euro rule strikes again 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean we all knew that lol. It happened like 3 days ago. Same story? Same result.

I sincerely mean this, we can’t get to spring fast enough. I’m tired of this 

I wouldn’t write this one off. The last one had serious wave spacing issues. The gfs isn’t the only model with a storm, AI guidance and Canadian are also on board. It’s a deep trough and there is a lot of energy.

[Kitz Craver]

Right when momentum and some good vibes are bubbling up, we get bitch slapped and told to go sit in the corner. Frustrating for sure.