Storm potential January 17th-18th

[MJO812]

Rgem for both events

[wthrmn654]

It's a 3 day weekend,  probably doing incase they don't come in Monday. 

[Franklin0529]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem for both events

Rgem was close to something much better. Still got time to get this to a 3-6" event. Don't tell krs that. Guess he hasn't seen every model moving nw

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Rgem was close to something much better. Still got time to get this to a 3-6" event. Don't tell krs that. Guess he hasn't seen every model moving nw

Its pretty impressive for tomorrow's event 

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem for both events

there is more snow on the coast than inland where the advisories are - doesn't make sense and is probably wrong

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its pretty impressive for tomorrow's event 

not with the warmer temps on the coast

[North and West]

Many of the posters on here live near the coast.  The event for tomorrow will primarily affect interior areas.  The one for Sunday if it happens will be a coastal event.

The interior is obviously where the wonderful people are.


.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

not with the warmer temps on the coast

RGEM is better with temp but still above freezing so you'd need heavier rates during the day to overcome that

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

not with the warmer temps on the coast

Colder surfaces 

Sunday is done

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Colder surfaces 

Sunday is done

Sunday is done? 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Colder surfaces 

Sunday is done

Car topper

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Colder surfaces 

Sunday is done

Once again = RGEM map doesn't make sense especially with the crazy spread of amounts along the coast and an inch and a half in Warren/ Sussex County NJ

 

[EastonSN+]

10 to 1 so fwiw

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Once again = RGEM map doesn't make sense especially with the crazy spread of amounts along the coast and an inch and a half in Warren/ Sussex County NJ

 

odd but maybe it sees a heavier patch of snow-but yeah I'm skeptical given temps

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Sunday is done? 

Gfs just folded

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs just folded

yep well east for the 2nd batch

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'd focus on rap and hrrr now

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd focus on rap and hrrr now

No

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd focus on rap and hrrr now

yea keep focusing on the model runs that are all disagreeing with one another and ignore what is actually happening with radars and surface reports

[snowman19]

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. 

As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

[wxman]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. 

As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

How come so positive?

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, wxman said:

How come so positive?

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

This! times a thousand

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

It is what it is.  But people give too much weight right now to AI models which are generally not good

[coastalplainsnowman]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

Yeah but she cares if the PNA is negative amirite?

 

sorry just wanted to sound smart

[wxman]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

Actually, this cannot be proven.  Just saying.

[nycwinter]

weird snowman has a snow name but hates snow.or any positive talk about snow the irony..

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. 

As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

You think every storm will underperform. Thats your MO.

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You think every storm will underperform. Thats your MO.

Last time I saw snowman19 basically go all in was several days before Jan 2016.  Ended up pretty decent lol 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. 

As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band

Still holding to my .5" to 1.5" tops forecast out my way.  Think the WWA of 2-4" are overdone where they are in effect for NJ counties.  PERHAPS 2" in spots but the 4" I'm not buying into at all.