MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Rgem for both events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It's a 3 day weekend, probably doing incase they don't come in Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem for both events Rgem was close to something much better. Still got time to get this to a 3-6" event. Don't tell krs that. Guess he hasn't seen every model moving nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Rgem was close to something much better. Still got time to get this to a 3-6" event. Don't tell krs that. Guess he hasn't seen every model moving nw Its pretty impressive for tomorrow's event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem for both events there is more snow on the coast than inland where the advisories are - doesn't make sense and is probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its pretty impressive for tomorrow's event not with the warmer temps on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Many of the posters on here live near the coast. The event for tomorrow will primarily affect interior areas. The one for Sunday if it happens will be a coastal event.The interior is obviously where the wonderful people are.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not with the warmer temps on the coast RGEM is better with temp but still above freezing so you'd need heavier rates during the day to overcome that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not with the warmer temps on the coast Colder surfaces Sunday is done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Colder surfaces Sunday is done Sunday is done? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Colder surfaces Sunday is done Car topper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Colder surfaces Sunday is done Once again = RGEM map doesn't make sense especially with the crazy spread of amounts along the coast and an inch and a half in Warren/ Sussex County NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 to 1 so fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Once again = RGEM map doesn't make sense especially with the crazy spread of amounts along the coast and an inch and a half in Warren/ Sussex County NJ odd but maybe it sees a heavier patch of snow-but yeah I'm skeptical given temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Sunday is done? Gfs just folded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs just folded yep well east for the 2nd batch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 i'd focus on rap and hrrr now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'd focus on rap and hrrr now No 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'd focus on rap and hrrr now yea keep focusing on the model runs that are all disagreeing with one another and ignore what is actually happening with radars and surface reports 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band How come so positive? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, wxman said: How come so positive? Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are This! times a thousand 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are It is what it is. But people give too much weight right now to AI models which are generally not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are Yeah but she cares if the PNA is negative amirite? sorry just wanted to sound smart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are Actually, this cannot be proven. Just saying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 weird snowman has a snow name but hates snow.or any positive talk about snow the irony.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band You think every storm will underperform. Thats your MO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You think every storm will underperform. Thats your MO. Last time I saw snowman19 basically go all in was several days before Jan 2016. Ended up pretty decent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: IMO Sunday was never there, nothing to cave to. The AI models shouldn’t have been used, I understand why people wanted to believe them and that’s fine, people love snow here. I still think Sunday is a total whiff like the EURO and EPS have been insisting run after run. The RGEM just made a big move towards the EURO, the CMC is sure to follow at 0z. I would argue that we didn’t even lose it, it was never there. As far as tomorrow, I think it underperforms for everyone in the metro area south of Orange County and Passaic/Sussex in Jersey where the frontogen band sets up. To me it looks meh south of where I just mentioned….daytime event, the ratios are going to suck and surface temps are above freezing. You are also going to see subsidence adjacent to that deform band Still holding to my .5" to 1.5" tops forecast out my way. Think the WWA of 2-4" are overdone where they are in effect for NJ counties. PERHAPS 2" in spots but the 4" I'm not buying into at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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