MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol Everyone gave up .Thats why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs came west This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Sharp cutoffs are problematic for widespread snows, especially with dry air in place. It'll be possible to go from 2-3 inches to zilch in twenty miles or less. Low expectations. It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago HRRR has 1-3 inches for NYC tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really. I suspect that it will take a change on the ECMWF to shake up the current thinking. The 6z GFS might be a plausible "best case" (if one likes snow). None of last night's EPS members had anything like it, though. A single member had 3" in NYC. The 0z RGEM had something similar though it backed off somewhat at 6z. There's just enough support on the guidance to suggest a snowier solution remains possible. Maybe the AI models will come out on top. Hopefully, over time, the AI models will improve their skill and become an important forecasting tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Ai gfs got better Surface Temps are problematic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Surface Temps are problematic 6 hours before this frame . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lack of posts with no new pages since last night says it all lol Much of the forum stands to see anywhere between 1-4” between the two systems. It’s something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 27 minutes ago, Picard said: . It would be nice to have an inch or two of snow to go with the bitter cold air. More would be ok but that would just be a nuisance combined with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Nam looks like a miss for Sunday. Way south. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: nam has got to be the worst model there is. No wonder they're discontinuing it Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 20 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 12z NAM is going all in for interior areas. 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. really ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nothing is showing a few inches for tomorrow like the nam in inland areas. Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago Rgem has an inch or two tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 18 minutes ago Share Posted 18 minutes ago ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago Reggie is a light snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago Just now, wxman said: Actually Reggie is a bit more robust at 12z. 2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 2-4 for NYC with slightly more to the and south from both events. Reggie just wont quit It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago Just now, wxman said: Reggie just wont quit It's the best of the bad models showing a hit of consequence. reggie was the only model that sniffed out the surprise 4-7" storm that just hit the detroit. i think it has some merit in this game. euro is garbage, gfs worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted just now Share Posted just now 37 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Check out the other mesoscale models for tomorrow- it’s not the only one. Yup they bumped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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