1/3-4 Return of the North Trend?

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

our snow season ends the day after PD....so basically we are down to Jan 15 to Feb 15 and we lose 3 days in February already for some leap year stuff

Yeah I cant think of a single snowstorm that occurred after mid Feb.

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I cant think of a single snowstorm that occurred after mid Feb.

I'm always ready for a debate on the futility of March snow. This list of snowfall totals from the last nine Marches tells the whole story: It was difficult enough BEFORE this...but since 2016? One year where we nickel and dimed our way to just over 6.

And I get slightly annoyed when folks bring up March 1993 as if a super rare generational storm is an example of how you can count on March snow if the rest of winter doesn't work out.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm always ready for a debate on the futility of March snow. This list of snowfall totals from the last nine Marches tells the whole story:

What if we went over a tipping point after March 2018 that makes snow that month next to unheard of? Similar XKCD: 

https://xkcd.com/1321/

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm always ready for a debate on the futility of March snow. This list of snowfall totals from the last nine Marches tells the whole story:

We don't need 2 of me around here ya' know.

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Like nearly everything that occurs in the atmosphere, what causes a block is complex and there isnt a singe cause.

Google this- "what causes an atmospheric block"

I think it will help you get a better understanding.

Thanks CAPE.  Not germane to this thread but when Googling I came across a Wikipedia article on the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which was our friend in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.  Of general interest so I link to it here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs fwiw

 Better get my snow blower ready 

[bncho]

0z GFS is poor. 3 steps forward and then 1 leap back lol

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is poor. 3 steps forward and then 1 leap back lol

I thought it was a small tick toward the EURO re: phasing but definitely running low on time here.

pretty crazy how different even the GFS and the hires models are at 500 in the period of interest. Doesn’t make much of a different for us of course but it’s interesting 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is poor. 3 steps forward and then 1 leap back lol

The next 16 days look poor on the GFS for several runs now. 

Next week looks warm .

Hopefully once we get past the 15th things get better. 

[osfan24]

FWIW, Euro was poor with the placement of snow Wednesday morning. Had it too far west.