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12/31-1/1 Possible Snow Showers/Squalls to Start 2026


bncho
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For tonight into early tomorrow (outside the WSW/WWA areas) afternoon disco from LWX 

Most hi-res guidance continues to hint at the potential for snow
showers or squalls with some impacts north of I-66/US-50.
Greatest potential in true snow squall warning criteria (winds >
25 mph, VSBY < 1/4 mile, and road temps below freezing) are
favored in the Cumberland to Frederick, MD area. Will continue
to monitor. Further south, a dry boundary layer is in place that
gets drier overnight with FROPA. This is partially observed in
the difference between the composite reflectivity in hi-res
model guidance and the 1km AGL reflectivity. SFC Td depressions
in most hi-res guidance >10F pre-frontal, and in the 15-20F
range with FROPA. What this is getting at is it likely snows
east of the mountains, but may not be true snow squall criteria.
The confidence for accumulation east of the mountains still
remains in question.
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