olafminesaw Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 15 minutes ago, BooneWX said: How much of this is snow? Not sure, but I wouldn't bank on much more than 1:1 ratios 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 I know everyone’s excited about the rain but I really don’t like how the tropics are starting to fire up at the end of the model runs. It would be our luck to go from drought to a wet period followed by tropical mischief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bckhd2 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Another cell just popped up and is over downtown Atlanta in almost the exact spot as the storm that created all the flooding issues yesterday. This is actually moving, though, and the rain rates seem to be less than they were yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Not sure, but I wouldn't bank on much more than 1:1 ratios Love a good slop fest pasting. Sun angle is going to be a thorn in our side this time of year. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 22 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Love a good slop fest pasting. Sun angle is going to be a thorn in our side this time of year. The warm nose is rearing it's ugly head. We just can't seem to win. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The warm nose is rearing it's ugly head. We just can't seem to win. A day late and a dollar short on the wedge. We can’t do anything right around here. Hope RDU folks score this round tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Hopefully this helps the wildfire in Chapell Hill. Tons of smoke on Wake today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 2 hours ago, EarlGrey said: Hopefully this helps the wildfire in Chapell Hill. Tons of smoke on Wake today. Oh wow I didnt hear about this today, thats getting to close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Raleigh is getting screwed again so far. A new line of storms popped off the boundary to the east and there is a gap over us while the rain west of here seems to have hit a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 0.01” here. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Not even enough here to get it wet under the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 We finally got a little something overnight but we definitely need a lot more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Omega Block? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I left for a cruise on the 17th, just got back this morning. The no rain anywhere to heavy rain/ flooding/ tropical news for a large portion of the SE happened fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 4 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: I left for a cruise on the 17th, just got back this morning. The no rain anywhere to heavy rain/ flooding/ tropical news for a large portion of the SE happened fast. Everything is one giant impervious surface rn unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Good news thanks to El Nino for folks like me who prefer a not so active season and thus less risk of destruction in the SE and thus lower stress: NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information. The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity: 8-14 Named Storms 3-6 Hurricanes 1-3 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median ——————— It’s all relative though and unfortunately the midpoints of 11 NS/4.5 H/2 MH can still be devastating if land is affected as it takes only one like in ‘92. Also, NOAA has wide spreads. I’m leaning to lower half of these due to how strong El Niño is expected to be and not as warm ATL tropics as in ‘23.https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Euro Weeklies are still quite wet in the SE next week (5/25-31) as this represents 2-3” for many: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Today’s Euro Weekly for May 25-31 is even wetter in the SE and is close to the wettest on the entire globe for that week for land areas in terms of anomalies! This has a max of 3.5-4” over N GA/far NW SC and 2”+ for just about the entire SE, just what the drought doc ordered! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment: https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/# The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Today’s Euro rainfall for 5/25-31: still very impressive with even heavier for parts of AL/GA/SC (dark green area, which has ~3.5-4”+, is larger) although not quite as wet for E NC/Triangle/Triad as yesterday’s even though still quite wet. This would be what the drought doc ordered/dream come true. This is one of the most widespread very heavy Euro weekly rainfall maps outside of a tropical cyclone that I’ve ever seen! Many tropical cyclones don’t produce this much over such a large area! For this reason, although I’ve once again gotten nothing measurable and have had only 0.3” for the last 3+ weeks (its been like there’s a force-field here), I’m still excited about the prospects: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 5 hours ago, GaWx said: There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment: https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/# The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html Those who refuse to remember history are doomed to repeat it. DST year round would be a disaster. I was hoping your Standard Time year round. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 45 minutes ago, yotaman said: Those who refuse to remember history are doomed to repeat it. DST year round would be a disaster. I was hoping your Standard Time year round. The Euro out by 1AM 365 days/yr? I sure could get behind that! I agree about the importance of knowing history to avoid repeating it. In addition to that, however, I’m worried that the influence of the almighty $ may be interfering with objectivity/logic like is often the case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Ridge out West in late June ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 24 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ridge out West in late June ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Im done with rain after last night…. Cleaning up a flooded basement is no bueno.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bckhd2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Driest spring of all time and the second we hit Memorial Day weekend it's non-stop waves of showers and thunderstorms. We've been under a Flood Watch in Atlanta for close to 48 hours now with more to come. Washed out of both days of our first tournament weekend of the summer and looks like it'll be a repeat next weekend. At least there should be some decent improvement on the drought monitor when it comes out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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