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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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4 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

I left for a cruise on the 17th, just got back this morning. 

 

The no rain anywhere to heavy rain/ flooding/ tropical news for a large portion of the SE happened fast.  

Everything is one giant impervious surface rn unfortunately 

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 Good news thanks to El Nino for folks like me who prefer a not so active season and thus less risk of destruction in the SE and thus lower stress:

NOAA's outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a below-normal season is the most likely outcome, with moderate chances for a near-normal season, and low probabilities that the season could be above-normal. The outlook calls for a 55% chance for a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance for an above-normal season. See the NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons for more information. 

The 2026 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

8-14 Named Storms

3-6 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 45-115% of the median

———————

 It’s all relative though and unfortunately the midpoints of 11 NS/4.5 H/2 MH can still be devastating if land is affected as it takes only one like in ‘92.
 
 Also, NOAA has wide spreads. I’m leaning to lower half of these due to how strong El Niño is expected to be and not as warm ATL tropics as in ‘23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

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