Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[suzook]

9 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Winter’s Revenge next week 

 

 

Looks like 2 BN days/nights, and it's done. No staying power on this one.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Looks like 2 BN days/nights, and it's done. No staying power on this one.

Staying power will be in the freaking middle of Spring I bet.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

Looks like 2 BN days/nights, and it's done. No staying power on this one.

Won’t be anything close to offset this week of +10 to +25 AN readings. Winter is over for the piedmont. We’re chasing freezes now 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

57 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

Even with that look it shows temps in 40s across NC piedmont and mid 30s in Virginia 

[Snow dog]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Won’t be anything close to offset this week of +10 to +25 AN readings. Winter is over for the piedmont. We’re chasing freezes now 

...and that's completely fine by me!  January was cold enough!

[Upstate Tiger]

I think the wild card is how quickly nino sets up.  Nino springs tend to be colder and wetter than average in the SE.  

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I think the wild card is how quickly nino sets up.  Nino springs tend to be colder and wetter than average in the SE.  

It's been creeping up over the last few weeks, but not enough to reach close to Nino before late spring at the earliest. Of course we could still have a nino like pattern in a neutral Enso state as we saw a few weeks ago

[Upstate Tiger]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's been creeping up over the last few weeks, but not enough to reach close to Nino before late spring at the earliest. Of course we could still have a nino like pattern in a neutral Enso state as we saw a few weeks ago

It’s hard to know.  The last couple of springs have been very cold and they were Nina’s.  

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Staying power will be in the freaking middle of Spring I bet.

Yeah, seems to never fail when you have a mild late Winter. I hate it as it's like a slap in the face. However, even with that, if there's late Snow I can still enjoy that. Lol

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like we make it through yet another February without a trackable threat. I know RDU-east got that February storm last year but there have been so many blanks recently that it’s really becoming a spring month. This is most on the forums snowiest climo month and now it’s just a segway into official spring. 

[CentralNC]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like we make it through yet another February without a trackable threat. I know RDU-east got that February storm last year but there have been so many blanks recently that it’s really becoming a spring month. This is most on the forums snowiest climo month and now it’s just a segway into official spring. 

We had measurable snow feb 4-5 in the Triad but know what you're saying 

[Tacoma]

February use to be as cold and snowy as January, each year it seems as if February is becoming a spring month.  You would think we would have the whole month of February and March in the mountains.  

[Coach McGuirk]

5 hours ago, Tacoma said:

February use to be as cold and snowy as January, each year it seems as if February is becoming a spring month.  You would think we would have the whole month of February and March in the mountains.  

Early to mid February was cold and snow in 2026.  It warms up then maybe another last chance. 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Oh hey hour 384 on the GFS bringing the goods to some lol. Funny yes, but may also be the last fantasy snow showing on models for the not mountains and Virginia north peeps for the season. 

[Tony Sisk]

20 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

It’s hard to know.  The last couple of springs have been very cold and they were Nina’s.  

My experience....any snowfall in March is a complete surprise.

[Upstate Tiger]

The Euro and GFS have two totally different iterations in the long term.  GFS wetter and somewhat milder.  The Euro is much dryer and colder starting with the frontal passage this weekend.  Would at least like to see some decent weekend golfing weather...

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

The Euro and GFS have two totally different iterations in the long term.  GFS wetter and somewhat milder.  The Euro is much dryer and colder starting with the frontal passage this weekend.  Would at least like to see some decent weekend golfing weather...

6z EURO completely caved to GFS for this weekends storm. Now it too shows a strong costal low off the mid Atlantic whereas it hasn’t even had the storm in previous runs. Someone from the MA to NE might get buried this weekend 

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

6z EURO completely caved to GFS for this weekends storm. Now it too shows a strong costal low off the mid Atlantic whereas it hasn’t even had the storm in previous runs. Someone from the MA to NE might get buried this weekend 

Yeah, this doesn't look like our storm because of the little bit of SE ridge, but this does have the classic look of a big storm from DC to NYC. Haven't had one of those in a while (from a coastal anyway)

[Upstate Tiger]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

6z EURO completely caved to GFS for this weekends storm. Now it too shows a strong costal low off the mid Atlantic whereas it hasn’t even had the storm in previous runs. Someone from the MA to NE might get buried this weekend 

I think it was Carver on the Tennessee forum who said the Euro has been much too dry with its long term forecasts this winter.  Looks like a couple of opportunities for a winter storm in the east over the next two of weeks. 

[BornAgain13]

Been watching this weekend's storm on and off. Mostly looks to hit north of here, more so Northern VA and into the NE. Could be the storm they've been waiting on!

[Tacoma]

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Been watching this weekend's storm on and off. Mostly looks to hit north of here, more so Northern VA and into the NE. Could be the storm they've been waiting on!

They don't need any more storms, they always seem to get good storms.  

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

They don't need any more storms, they always seem to get good storms.  

They seem to because they actually do as they have much snowier climo, of course, and thus get much more on average. Some there, just as seems to be the case in most subforums, are almost always mad. If they don’t reach climo they’re mad, which keeps them from enjoying what they do get. Thus in their own minds, they almost always “need” more.

 Some southerners move north for more snow. But then many of them feel the need to get much more in order to be as content. When despite getting more snow than in the S they don’t reach climo, they’re often no happier than they were in the south and sometimes madder! Why can’t they just enjoy the higher amounts vs what they got before? It might be better if they didn’t know climo.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

They seem to because they actually do as they have much snowier climo, of course, and thus get much more on average. Some there, just as seems to be the case in most subforums, are almost always mad. If they don’t reach climo they’re mad, which keeps them from enjoying what they do get. Thus in their own minds, they almost always “need” more.

 Some southerners move north for more snow. But then many of them feel the need to get much more in order to be as content. When despite getting more snow than in the S they don’t reach climo, they’re often no happier than they were in the south and sometimes madder! Why can’t they just enjoy the higher amounts vs what they got before? It might be better if they didn’t know climo.

A quick AI search reports Washington Reagan 8.6" with annual seasonal average of 14".

NY City has received 21.2" with a 25 year seasonal average of 29".

I have measured just over 11" total in Lincoln County this season. My annual average states 5”.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

A quick AI search reports Washington Reagan 8.6" with annual seasonal average of 14".

NY City has received 21.2" with a 25 year seasonal average of 29".

I have measured just over 11" total in Lincoln County this season. My annual average states 5”.  

 You set up a good example of what I was referring to in my last post. If someone from Lincoln County, which has gone well over climo this winter with 11”, had moved to NYC for more snow this winter, he/she despite getting double that as of now (21.2” vs 11”) might end up mad if that were to be about it for the winter (that’s very doubtful though as this next storm could give them a lot but that’s beside my point). Why not be happy they got 10” more to enjoy as a result of moving? That’s why moving north often doesn’t work like one expected.

[NorthHillsWx]

The Sunday/Monday system looks like like it could be a beast north of us somewhere 

[wncsnow]

Its been a pretty meh winter for most of the USA including the Mid Atlantic (New England has done pretty well). NC/VA piedmont might be the jackpot compared to average. Most of the Rockies have been historically snowless but are starting to catch up a little. Its been about an average winter here.